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New Delhi: India’s continued dependence on Russian crude oil is emerging as an important energy-security and macroeconomic consideration as a US Senate sanctions initiative raises uncertainty over the future of trade with Russia.

Russian crude has become a significant part of India’s oil supply. Imports have reportedly increased from around 1.2 million barrels per day in January to nearly 2.7 million barrels per day in July, potentially accounting for about half of India’s crude imports. India already relies on imports for roughly 88% of its oil requirements, making any sudden disruption to a major supply source economically significant.

The immediate impact of any reduction in Russian crude purchases would depend on how quickly Indian refiners could replace those supplies and at what cost. Greater dependence on alternative suppliers could increase crude procurement costs and raise India’s overall oil import bill, potentially putting pressure on the current account.

Higher crude prices could also affect the wider economy through transportation, logistics and manufacturing costs. A sustained increase in fuel and input costs could create additional inflationary pressure, particularly for sectors with significant exposure to energy and transportation expenses.

The implications could extend beyond India. If Russian crude is substantially removed from global markets rather than redirected to other buyers, a reduction in global supply could place upward pressure on international benchmark crude prices. For major oil-importing economies, including India, higher global prices could increase energy costs even if direct purchases of Russian crude decline.

This creates a potential policy challenge for New Delhi. Reducing Russian imports could address some geopolitical concerns but could also increase India’s exposure to higher-priced alternative supplies. Continued purchases, meanwhile, could leave Indian refiners exposed to possible secondary sanctions or other restrictions depending on the final US policy.

The outcome will depend significantly on the eventual enforcement mechanism and whether exemptions or waivers are provided. A framework allowing Indian refiners continued access to Russian crude could reduce the immediate economic impact, while stricter enforcement could require refiners to diversify supplies more rapidly.

The response of Indian refiners will also be an important indicator. Their ability to source crude from alternative markets, manage procurement costs and maintain refining margins will influence the broader economic impact of any changes in Russian oil flows.

The effects are unlikely to be uniform across the Indian economy. Oil marketing companies and refiners could face margin pressures if sourcing costs rise, while industries dependent on transportation and fuel could face higher operating expenses. Upstream producers could potentially benefit from higher crude prices, depending on the extent of the increase and domestic market conditions.

The broader macroeconomic transmission could run from higher crude prices to a larger import bill, pressure on the external balance and increased inflationary risks. Such developments could also influence monetary and fiscal policy decisions.

For India, the issue is therefore closely linked to its broader strategy of maintaining energy security while diversifying its sources of supply. Rather than an immediate shift away from Russian crude, the near-term approach could involve continued purchases alongside supplier diversification and diplomatic engagement as the details of US sanctions become clearer.

Key indicators to watch include the final US legislation and enforcement mechanism, possible exemptions, Indian refiners’ response, Russian crude discounts and changes in global oil prices. These factors will determine whether the issue results primarily in higher uncertainty or develops into a more significant supply and cost shock for India.

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New Delhi, August 6: The 21st edition of EAW Global Aqua Expo 2026, one of India’s largest exhibitions dedicated to water and wastewater management, opened at Bharat Mandapam on Thursday, bringing together policymakers, industry leaders, technology companies, researchers and water-sector experts to deliberate on the country’s evolving water challenges and sustainable solutions. Organised by the Earth Water Foundation, the three-day event is being held under the theme “Shaping the Future of Water Through Innovation, Sustainability and Collaboration.”

The Expo was inaugurated by Dr. Raj Bhushan Choudhary, Hon’ble Minister of State for Jal Shakti, Government of India, who underscored the critical role of water security in achieving the vision of Viksit Bharat 2047. Addressing delegates from government, industry and academia, the Minister said sustainable water management must become a national priority, driven by cooperation among governments, businesses, technology innovators, researchers and local communities. He stressed that innovation, policy reforms and circular water management practices would be essential to building resilient water infrastructure capable of meeting India’s future domestic, agricultural and industrial needs.

The inauguration began with the traditional Jal Kalash Ceremony, followed by the inaugural session titled “India Water Mandate 2030,” which set the tone for discussions on India’s long-term water strategy. The session focused on strengthening water governance, promoting advanced technologies, encouraging sustainable resource management and accelerating policy initiatives to address increasing water stress across the country.

Welcoming participants, Ms. Shivani Ghorawat, Founder of Earth Water Foundation, said the Expo has evolved significantly over the past two decades. She noted that what began as an initiative to bring together fragmented discussions on water has now become a national platform where governments, industries, technology providers and water professionals collaborate to develop practical and scalable solutions for the sector.

The inaugural session also featured addresses by Dr. Ambika Sharma, Assistant Secretary General of ASSOCHAM, and Mr. Siddharth K. Desai, Co-Chair of the ASSOCHAM National Council on Water and Joint Managing Director of KISHOR Pumps, who outlined the importance of stronger public-private collaboration, technological innovation and policy support in ensuring sustainable water management. The session concluded with a vote of thanks by Mr. Turbaashu Bhattacharya, Co-Chair of the ASSOCHAM National Council on Water.

A key highlight of the opening day was the ASSOCHAM Water Leaders Summit on “Navigating India’s Water Transition: Technology, Policy and Circularity.” Experts discussed emerging challenges in industrial water security, climate resilience, wastewater reuse, circular economy practices and the application of artificial intelligence in water management. Participants emphasised that rapid urbanisation, industrial growth and climate change require integrated planning, advanced monitoring systems and greater investment in sustainable water infrastructure.

The CEO’s Water Leadership Forum, moderated by Mr. Shankar Venkateswaran, brought together senior executives from IOTA Group, WOG Group, VA Tech Wabag and Microfilter Polymers Limited to discuss industry-led innovation and collaboration. The panel explored strategies for improving industrial water efficiency, expanding wastewater recycling, adopting smart technologies and strengthening partnerships between the public and private sectors to enhance water security.

Spread across multiple exhibition halls, the Expo combines five integrated platformsExhibition, Conference, Business, Market Access and Knowledgeto facilitate dialogue, business networking and technology exchange. More than a conventional trade exhibition, the event provides opportunities for policymakers, utilities, startups, MSMEs and researchers to engage with solution providers and explore emerging technologies in water treatment, wastewater management, desalination, digital monitoring systems and sustainable infrastructure. The Global Water Business Lounge and Innovation Spotlight Arena are serving as dedicated platforms for business meetings, product launches and startup demonstrations.

The remaining two days of the Expo will feature the World Sustainable Water Summit, technical conferences on water infrastructure, financing, rainwater harvesting, water reuse and regional cooperation, along with specialised training sessions under the EAW Water Academy. Industry experts expect these discussions to generate policy recommendations, encourage investment and strengthen partnerships that support India’s long-term water security agenda.

As India faces growing pressure on freshwater resources due to urbanisation, industrial expansion and climate variability, EAW Global Aqua Expo 2026 seeks to provide a collaborative platform where government agencies, businesses, researchers and innovators can develop practical solutions to ensure sustainable water management. The organisers believe the event will contribute to advancing technological innovation, strengthening institutional partnerships and supporting the country’s transition towards a resilient and water-secure future.

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The Japanese yen strengthened sharply against the U.S. dollar after coordinated efforts by the United States and Japan to support the currency, marking one of the closest instances of currency coordination between the two countries in decades.

The yen closed at 157.40 per U.S. dollar on Friday, its strongest level since early May, after having traded near its weakest level since 1986 earlier in the week.

According to reports, the recovery was supported by direct purchases of the yen, communication between Japanese officials and currency-trading banks, and discussions between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. Bloomberg reported that Mr. Bessent viewed the yen as undervalued, while a Reuters photograph of his meeting notes included a reference to purchasing Japanese yen.

The coordinated action comes as Japan, the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, faces pressure to support its currency. Currency intervention typically requires Japan to sell foreign currency assets, including U.S. Treasuries, to purchase yen.

Large-scale sales of U.S. Treasury securities could increase American government borrowing costs by pushing Treasury prices lower and bond yields higher. The development is significant as U.S. Treasury yields have risen in recent months, with the 30-year yield exceeding 5.2%, while a substantial share of U.S. government debt is due for refinancing over the coming year.

Analysts say that supporting the yen may also help limit the need for Japan to sell additional U.S. Treasury holdings, reducing potential pressure on U.S. financial markets while contributing to greater stability in global currency markets.

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New Delhi, July 31: Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. (IOCL) reported a consolidated net loss of ₹1,141 crore for the first quarter of FY27, despite recording higher revenue and continued growth in domestic fuel demand.

The company registered a 27% year-on-year increase in revenue, supported by improved refinery throughput and higher fuel sales. However, the rise in global crude oil prices increased input costs, resulting in lower marketing margins during the quarter.

As crude procurement costs rose, retail fuel prices did not increase proportionately, reducing profitability on petrol, diesel and LPG sales. The results indicate that while demand for petroleum products remained strong, higher operating costs weighed on earnings.

IOCL’s performance also reflects broader trends in India’s energy sector. As the country imports a significant share of its crude oil requirements, fluctuations in international crude prices continue to influence the financial performance of oil marketing companies.

The quarter also highlights the role of government policies in the fuel sector. Pricing decisions and compensation mechanisms, including support related to LPG, remain important factors affecting the financial position of public sector oil marketing companies.

Market participants will continue to monitor global crude oil prices, domestic fuel pricing decisions, marketing margin recovery, government policy measures, exchange rate movements and upcoming earnings from other oil marketing companies to assess the sector’s outlook in the coming quarters.

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The Economics Behind E20 Petrol

India’s transition towards E20 petrol is often discussed as a fuel reform, but its impact goes much deeper. It is a policy decision that sits at the intersection of energy security, agriculture, consumer behaviour, automobile technology, and market economics.

The government’s objective behind ethanol blending is straightforward: reduce India’s dependence on imported crude oil, support domestic ethanol production, reduce emissions, and create additional income opportunities for farmers.

From a national economic perspective, the reasoning is clear. India imports nearly 85% of its crude oil requirements, making the country vulnerable to global crude price fluctuations and geopolitical disruptions. Increasing ethanol blending provides an opportunity to reduce a portion of this import dependence while developing a domestic biofuel ecosystem.

The scale of this transition has been significant.

IndicatorLatest Figure
India’s crude oil import dependenceNearly 85%
Ethanol blending in petrol (2014)1.5%
Ethanol blending achieved (2025)20%
Target achievementFive years ahead of schedule
Estimated foreign exchange savingsAround ₹1.9 lakh crore
Estimated payments to farmersAround ₹1.6 lakh crore
Estimated CO₂ emissions reductionNearly 700 lakh tonnes
Vehicles manufactured after April 2023Designed for E20 compatibility

These figures explain why E20 is considered an important economic reform. By replacing a portion of imported petrol components with domestically produced ethanol, India aims to improve energy independence while strengthening agricultural supply chains.

However, large-scale policy changes often create new market dynamics, and E20 is no exception.

The Shift in Consumer Behaviour

While policymakers focus on national-level benefits, individual consumers are concerned with a more immediate question: how will this affect their vehicle?

Many motorists have raised concerns about mileage, engine performance, maintenance costs, and long-term compatibility. These concerns have contributed to increased interest in premium petrol among some vehicle owners, as many perceive it as a safer or more reliable option.

Whether every consumer assumption is technically accurate depends on the vehicle model, manufacturer specifications, and fuel formulation. However, from an economic perspective, perception itself influences demand.

When consumers face uncertainty, they often choose products that provide greater reassurance, even if they come at a higher cost.

This behaviour is visible across several sectors. Customers frequently pay more for premium products because they associate higher prices with better quality, lower risk, or greater reliability. Fuel markets are no different.

Why Premium Petrol Supply Has Become a Challenge

The growing preference for premium petrol creates an interesting challenge for fuel retailers.

Petrol stations operate with limited storage capacity. Historically, regular petrol and diesel have accounted for the majority of fuel sales, so retail infrastructure has been designed around those products.

Premium petrol, despite having a higher selling price and potentially better margins per litre, has traditionally represented a much smaller share of total sales. For many retailers, dedicating significant storage capacity to a lower-volume product has not always been commercially practical.

However, when consumer demand changes quickly, supply infrastructure cannot adjust at the same pace.

Fuel stations cannot immediately increase storage capacity, modify distribution systems, or change inventory planning. As a result, temporary shortages or limited availability can occur when demand rises faster than supply.

This creates an interesting market cycle. Limited availability can increase the perception that premium petrol is a superior product, which may encourage even more consumers to seek it out.

The Transparency Debate Around E20

The discussion around E20 has now moved beyond consumer preferences and into legal territory.

A petition before the Supreme Court has raised concerns regarding transparency in the rollout of E20 petrol. Importantly, the petition does not seek to reverse India’s ethanol-blending policy. Instead, it argues that consumers should have clearer information about fuel composition, vehicle compatibility, and potential implications before making purchasing decisions.

The petitioner has argued that when a nationwide policy changes the characteristics of a commonly purchased product, consumers have a right to understand what they are buying. The petition refers to provisions including Article 300A of the Constitution and the Consumer Protection Act, 2019, to support the argument that product information and transparency are essential consumer safeguards.

The petition also highlights the technical differences between ethanol and conventional petrol. Ethanol is hygroscopic, meaning it absorbs moisture, and it has lower energy density compared with petrol. Depending on vehicle design, ethanol blends may influence fuel efficiency, fuel-system materials, maintenance requirements, and long-term vehicle performance.

At the same time, compatibility is not the same for every vehicle.

The Bureau of Indian Standards has issued separate specifications for E20 fuel, while the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways has introduced a phased approach for E20-compatible vehicles. This reflects the fact that vehicle compatibility depends on engineering design and manufacturing timelines.

The Industry’s Perspective

Automobile manufacturers and industry experts have maintained that E20-compatible vehicles have undergone extensive testing and are designed to operate safely with the fuel blend.

They acknowledge that ethanol has lower energy density than petrol, which can result in a modest reduction in fuel economy, generally estimated around 2–4% depending on vehicle type and conditions. However, they argue that this should not be interpreted as evidence of widespread engine damage in compatible vehicles.

Most manufacturers also point out that vehicles produced after April 2023 were developed with E20 compatibility in mind.

For older vehicles, the situation depends largely on the manufacturer’s recommendations and the specific model.

The Economics of Information

One of the biggest lessons from the E20 transition is the importance of information in markets.

Economists describe situations where buyers and sellers do not have equal information as “information asymmetry.” When consumers are unsure about a product, they often make decisions based on perceived risk rather than complete technical understanding.

This appears to be one reason behind the growing preference for premium petrol among some motorists. The purchase is not only about fuel quality it is also about reducing uncertainty.

Better communication can therefore play an important role in improving market confidence. Clear fuel labelling, accessible vehicle compatibility information, and consistent guidance from manufacturers and policymakers can help consumers make decisions based on facts rather than assumptions.

Conclusion

India’s E20 programme represents a major economic transition with significant potential benefits. Reducing crude oil dependence, supporting domestic ethanol production, and strengthening energy security are important national objectives.

At the same time, successful implementation requires more than infrastructure and policy targets. It requires consumer awareness and trust.

The debate around E20 is ultimately not only about what goes into the fuel tank. It is about how a country manages a major economic transition while ensuring that consumers remain informed and confident about the choices they make.

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us iran peace deal

The preliminary peace framework between the United States and Iran is being closely watched by governments, investors, and energy markets around the world. While the agreement is still subject to implementation and political negotiations, it has already begun influencing expectations across global oil markets.

At the centre of the discussion is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes. Nearly 20% of global oil supplies pass through this narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to international markets. Any disruption in the region can significantly affect oil prices, shipping costs, and global inflation.

Impact on Oil Prices

One of the first reactions in oil markets to the U.S.–Iran peace framework has been a slight dip in crude prices. When geopolitical tensions rise, oil usually carries a “risk premium” basically an extra cost built in because traders fear supply disruptions.

With signs of reduced tensions between Washington and Tehran, traders have started to remove part of that premium from oil prices. As a result, benchmark crude prices have shown signs of softening as markets anticipate more stable energy supplies.

That said, prices are unlikely to move in a straight line. Even if the framework moves forward, it will take time to implement, and traders are still watching for any political or security setbacks.
If the framework progresses successfully and shipping routes remain fully operational, oil prices could face downward pressure over the coming months due to improved supply confidence.

Shipping Costs and Energy Supply Chains

The Strait of Hormuz plays a critical role in global energy transportation. During periods of instability, shipping companies often face higher insurance premiums, increased security costs, and longer delivery timelines.

If tensions actually ease for a while, shipping costs could come down too. Tanker insurance and freight charges in the Gulf tend to spike during uncertainty, so calmer conditions would naturally make transport cheaper and smoother.

Lower logistics costs could eventually translate into reduced costs for businesses and consumers, particularly in energy-dependent economies.

Global Inflation Outlook

Energy prices are still one of the biggest factors driving inflation globally. When crude oil prices rise sharply, transportation, manufacturing, and logistics costs often increase, putting pressure on consumer prices.

If this framework actually helps keep oil prices lower and more stable, it could slowly ease inflation pressure in many major economies.

Nevertheless, economists note that inflation is influenced by multiple factors, including food prices, labour costs, and monetary policy. Therefore, any inflation relief from lower oil prices may be gradual rather than immediate.

Why the Development Matters for India

India is among the world’s largest importers of crude oil and depends on imports for approximately 85–90% of its petroleum requirements. A substantial portion of these imports originates from the Middle East and passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

As a result, any disruption in the region directly affects India’s energy security and import costs.

A more stable geopolitical environment could provide several benefits for India:

  • Lower crude oil import costs
  • Reduced freight and insurance expenses
  • Improved energy supply security
  • Lower pressure on the current account deficit
  • Reduced inflation risks
  • Greater stability for the Indian rupee

Lower oil prices can also ease government and consumer concerns over fuel costs, helping support economic activity and household spending.

Potential Impact on Financial Markets

Global financial markets generally respond positively to lower geopolitical risks and stable energy prices.

For India, sectors such as aviation, logistics, paints, chemicals, and manufacturing could benefit from lower fuel and input costs. Companies that depend heavily on petroleum products may see improved operating margins if crude prices remain moderate.

Broader stock market sentiment may also improve as investors view lower energy costs as supportive of economic growth and corporate profitability.

However, market reactions will continue to depend on the successful implementation of the agreement and broader global economic conditions.

A Positive but Fragile Development

While the U.S.–Iran peace framework has generated optimism, uncertainty remains. Political agreements do not immediately translate into operational stability, and any breakdown in negotiations could quickly restore geopolitical risk to oil markets.
For now, the deal mostly signals the possibility of more stable energy supplies, less oil price turbulence, and some relief on inflation.

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Mumbai: The GACS Maharashtra Chapter successfully organized a Knowledge Conclave on 29 May 2026 at Hotel Trident, BKC, Mumbai, centered on the theme “The Future of Corporate Services: Redefining Work, Workforce, and Workplace.” The event brought together industry leaders, policymakers, and professionals from Corporate Services, Workplace Management, Facilities Management, Administration, Procurement, and Corporate Real Estate to exchange ideas, build connections, and deliberate on the evolving future of the sector.

The conclave witnessed strong participation from over 200 corporate professionals, serving as a vibrant platform for knowledge sharing, collaboration, and discussions on emerging trends shaping the workplace ecosystem and corporate services landscape.

The event was graced by Shri Dr. Ramdas Athawale, Hon’ble Union Minister of State for Social Justice and Empowerment, and Shri Charansingh Thakur, Hon’ble MLA, Narkhed, Maharashtra, who addressed the gathering and highlighted the critical role of Corporate Services in driving operational efficiency, enabling workplace transformation, and ensuring business continuity in today’s rapidly changing environment.

A key highlight of the conclave was a series of keynote addresses, knowledge-sharing sessions, and panel discussions led by eminent CXOs and industry experts. The deliberations focused on workplace transformation, the future of work, technology adoption, sustainability, operational excellence, and the expanding strategic role of Corporate Services as a business enabler. The sessions provided participants with valuable insights into current challenges and future opportunities across the industry.

Participants appreciated the quality of the discussions and the opportunity to engage with senior leaders and peers, reflecting the conclave’s success as a meaningful platform for learning, networking, and professional exchange.

The event was led by the Maharashtra Chapter Office Bearers Shri Abbasaheb Kale, DrAbhijit SarkarandPurvesh Gada, with strong support from the GACS Central Board comprising Capt. Rajesh Sharma, Kapil Khera, Dr. Sameer Saxena, and Dr. Rahul Lal. The initiative was further strengthened by the collective efforts of the CEC, MEC members of the Maharashtra Chapter, the Organizing Committee, the Secretariat, the Social Media Team, and volunteers.

GACS Maharashtra Chapter expressed its sincere appreciation to all stakeholders for their contribution and commitment in ensuring the successful execution of the conclave.

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Indian Delegation Members with Hon. Jin Xin (Vice Minister) International Department Central Committee CPC

New Delhi: A high-level Indian delegation successfully concluded a 10-day official visit to China (15–25 April 2026), covering key regions including Henan Province (Zhengzhou & Luoyang), Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou. The visit aimed to enhance mutual understanding in areas of economic development, technological innovation, sustainability, and cultural exchange.

The delegation included distinguished representatives from across India, with Prof. Ganesh Channa, Founder & President, World Environment Council (WEC), playing a key role in strategic discussions and international engagement.

The delegation comprised the following members

  1. Bosu Rabi Sankar (Kolkata)
  2. Dimri  Rajiv (Delhi)
  3. Kamble Gauri Santosh (Delhi)
  4. Mazumder Anuradha (Kolkata)
  5. Ramachandran Rajesh (Delhi)
  6. Saren  Binoy Kumar (Kolkata)
  7. Seth Pallavi (Delhi)
  8. Singh Devender (Delhi – CCTV)
  9. Venu Arun Kumar (Delhi)
  10. Channa Ganesh Prakash (Solapur)
  11. Choudhary Srishti (Delhi)
  12. Jha Abhishek Kumar (Delhi)
  13. Joshi Jitendra Govind (Pune – IGBC)

Chinese Officials & Coordination Team

The delegation was hosted and coordinated by representatives from the International Department of the CPC Central Committee, including:

  • Mr. Chen Yongpei, Deputy Director
  • Mr. Pengfei, Principal Staff & Interpreter
  • Mr. Zhao Zihe, Principal Staff

Their continuous support throughout the visit ensured smooth coordination and meaningful engagement across all locations.

Key Highlights of the Visit

1. Industrial & Technological Advancements

The delegation visited leading industrial facilities including BYD (Electric Vehicles) and AION Car Manufacturing Unit, gaining first-hand insights into China’s leadership in green mobility, advanced manufacturing, and clean energy technologies.

2. Economic & Trade Insights

Interactions with industry leaders revealed that Chinese enterprises benefit from strong government support through subsidies, infrastructure, and financing mechanisms, enabling global competitiveness. The visit also highlighted growing Chinese interest in India’s renewable energy, IT, pharmaceutical, and infrastructure sectors.

3. Agriculture & Rural Development

At Weipo Village (Luoyang), delegates observed China’s agricultural modernization through mechanization, smart farming practices, and food security strategies, offering valuable lessons for rural development.

4. Cultural & Academic Exchange

The delegation engaged in cultural and academic interactions through visits to:

  • White Horse Temple (Buddhist heritage)
  • Longmen Grottoes (UNESCO heritage site)
  • Zhengzhou University (student and expert interactions)

These engagements strengthened people-to-people connections and cross-cultural understanding.

5. Diplomatic Engagements

High-level meetings with the International Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC) emphasized mutual respect, economic cooperation, and a shared interest in strengthening bilateral relations.

6. Urban Innovation & Smart Cities

In Shenzhen and Guangzhou, the delegation observed cutting-edge developments in smart city infrastructure, urban planning, and technology-driven economic growth models.

Key Observations

  • Strong integration of policy, industry, and innovation in China’s development model
  • Rapid advancement in AI, EVs, 5G, and green technologies
  • Increasing focus on sustainability and self-reliance
  • Emerging challenges related to ageing population and workforce dynamics

India’s Growth Perspective

Speaking on the occasion, Prof. Ganesh Channa stated:

“India has immense potential driven by its young population. By strengthening skill development, manufacturing, and sustainability initiatives, India can emerge as a global leader in innovation and green growth.”

Conclusion

The visit marks a significant step toward strengthening India–China engagement through dialogue, collaboration, and knowledge exchange. It highlights new opportunities for cooperation in sustainability, ESG, technology, and economic development.

About World Environment Council (WEC)

The World Environment Council (WEC) is a global organization dedicated to promoting environmental sustainability, ESG leadership, climate action, and capacity building through education, research, and international collaboration.

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IBM Shares Fall 13% After Anthropic Claims AI Can Modernise COBOL

Shares of IBM recorded their sharpest single-day drop in more than 25 years on Monday after fresh concerns emerged over the impact of artificial intelligence on the company’s mainframe and services business.

The trigger came from AI startup Anthropic, which said its Claude Code tool is capable of understanding and modernising COBOL, a decades-old programming language that continues to underpin many mission-critical systems running on IBM’s mainframes.

IBM stock closed down 13.2% at $223.35, marking its biggest daily fall since October 18, 2000. According to Reuters, the sell-off has pushed the stock down roughly 25% so far this year, as investors reassess how quickly AI tools could reshape the economics of enterprise software and IT services.

Why COBOL Matters to IBM

COBOL, short for Common Business-Oriented Language, was created in the late 1950s and remains deeply embedded in global banking, insurance, airline systems, and government infrastructure. IBM has spent decades building and supporting mainframe systems optimized for large-scale transaction processing, where COBOL continues to play a central role.

Anthropic estimates that around 95% of ATM transactions in the United States still rely on COBOL-based systems, highlighting both the language’s scale and its continued relevance.

For years, modernising COBOL systems has required lengthy, consultant-led projects. These projects often involve teams manually tracing dependencies across vast codebases, documenting poorly understood workflows, and identifying integration risks. Such efforts have generated steady services revenue for companies including IBM.

What Anthropic Claims

In a recent blog post, Anthropic said its Claude Code tool can automate large parts of COBOL modernisation. According to the company, AI can analyse extensive codebases, trace dependencies across thousands of lines of code, generate documentation, and flag potential risks that would otherwise take months of manual effort to uncover.

“Hundreds of billions of lines of COBOL run in production every day,” Anthropic wrote. “Despite that, the number of people who understand it shrinks every year.”

The company argued that AI changes the cost equation. “Legacy code modernisation stalled for years because understanding legacy code costs more than rewriting it. AI flips that equation,” it said, adding that projects that once took years could now be completed in quarters.

These claims appear to have unsettled investors concerned that AI-driven automation could reduce demand for traditional consulting-heavy transformation projects.

Market Reaction and Broader Sentiment

The sharp fall in IBM shares reflects a broader shift in market sentiment toward enterprise software and IT services firms. Over recent weeks, investors have been weighing the speed at which AI tools are moving from experimental deployments to production use in large organisations.

Anthropic has also launched multiple Claude plug-ins designed to automate complex software tasks, positioning AI as an application layer capable of handling activities traditionally performed by consultants and integration teams.

The anxiety is not limited to the United States. Indian IT stocks have also faced pressure amid concerns that AI-led automation could reduce the need for large delivery teams.

However, industry views remain divided.

Hari Shetty, Chief Strategist and Technology Officer at Wipro, recently said that AI is more likely to expand opportunities for IT services firms than diminish them. He suggested that the range of potential AI-enabled services could create new areas of work.

By contrast, Vishal Sikka, former CEO of Infosys, has warned that generative AI is already changing how enterprise projects are executed. He noted that the disruption is tangible, particularly in areas such as code migration and system integration, where productivity gains are becoming evident.

What It Means for IBM

IBM’s business model has evolved in recent years to include hybrid cloud, AI, and consulting services alongside its traditional mainframe operations. However, the company’s installed base of mainframe customers and associated services revenue remains significant.

If AI tools meaningfully reduce the time and cost required to modernise legacy systems, it could alter pricing structures and margins in consulting-heavy projects. At the same time, AI adoption may also create new service opportunities, including AI integration, governance, and risk management.

For now, the market response indicates that investors are reassessing how quickly AI-driven automation could affect long-established revenue streams tied to legacy technologies.

IBM has not publicly indicated that its core mainframe strategy is changing. The longer-term impact will likely depend on how rapidly enterprises adopt AI-based modernisation tools and whether established firms can integrate such capabilities into their own service offerings.

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Retail Inflation

New Delhi, February 12, 2026: The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Thursday released the first data under the revised Consumer Price Index (CPI) series, showing retail inflation at 2.75% for January 2026. As this marks the first release under the new base year of 2024, year-on-year comparisons with earlier periods are not yet available.

The new CPI series replaces the earlier base year of 2012 and incorporates updated consumption patterns from the latest Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2023–24. The release was made in the presence of MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran, and other officials.

Expanded Coverage and Methodological Changes

The revised index significantly expands coverage of goods and services. The total number of items included has increased to 358 from 299 in the previous series. Goods now account for 308 items, up from 259, while services have risen to 50 from 40 earlier.

Data collection has also broadened geographically and digitally. Rural market coverage has expanded to 1,465 markets from 1,181, while urban market coverage has increased to 1,395 from 1,114. For the first time, data from 12 online marketplaces have been incorporated into the index.

The new series provides more detailed classification, dividing goods and services into 12 broad groups, compared to six under the previous framework. Officials said this change reflects evolving consumption patterns and structural changes in the economy over the past decade.

“The economy has undergone a significant transformation in the last decade,” Mr. Nageswaran said. “Consumption behaviour, market structures, and the compositions of household expenditure have evolved and the new CPI structure unsurprisingly reflects these changes.”

Revised Weights Reflect Consumption Trends

One of the key changes in the new series is the revision of weights assigned to various categories, based on updated expenditure patterns from the HCES 2023–24.

The weight assigned to the food and beverages category has been reduced to 36.75% from 45.86% in the previous series. According to Mr. Nageswaran, the lower weight for food which is generally more volatile may reduce overall volatility in headline inflation, other factors remaining constant.

The housing category has been expanded to include water, electricity, gas, and other fuels. The combined category now carries a weight of 17.67%, compared to 10.07% earlier for housing alone.

Additional broad groups introduced in the revised structure include:

  • Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance (4.47%)
  • Health (6.1%)
  • Transport (8.8%)
  • Information and communication (3.61%)
  • Recreation, sports and culture (1.52%)
  • Education services (3.33%)
  • Restaurants and accommodation services (3.35%)
  • Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services (5.04%)

The weight of the paan, tobacco and intoxicants category has increased to 2.99% from 2.38%, while clothing and footwear has seen a reduction in weight to 2.38% from 6.53%.

“Since the basket is aligned with recent expenditure data, the inflation signals from this will be more closely matched to the prevailing economic conditions,” Mr. Nageswaran said. He added that the revised structure would strengthen the information base for calibrating monetary and fiscal policy.

Historical Data and Linking Factor

While January 2026 marks the first year-on-year inflation figure under the new series, MoSPI has provided index values using the revised methodology going back to January 2025. However, earlier index values are not directly available for calculating historical inflation rates.

Mr. Garg said that the government is following international practice by providing a linking factor that enables users to compute comparable index values back to 2013.

The introduction of the new CPI series is expected to influence how inflation trends are assessed by policymakers, financial markets, and researchers. With updated weights and expanded coverage, the revised index aims to better capture current consumption patterns and economic conditions.

Further monthly releases under the new series will allow clearer trend comparisons over time.

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