India

The Maharashtra Assembly elections, with voting for all 288 seats conducted in a single phase, have become a riveting tale of political maneuvering and shifting voter dynamics. This election, marked by a 65.1% voter turnout, stands as the highest in a decade and the second-highest since the record-breaking 71.5% turnout of 1995. With the majority mark set at 145 seats, both ruling and opposition alliances are banking on the increased voter participation to tilt the scales in their favor.

A Closer Look at the Numbers

The voter turnout in Maharashtra has seen significant fluctuations over the years. After peaking at 71.5% in 1995, turnout dropped to 61% in 1999 and further slipped to 59.7% in 2009. The 2014 election saw a modest uptick to 63.4%, but the turnout dipped slightly to 61.4% in 2019. The current 65.1% marks a notable recovery, signaling heightened voter interest amid a politically charged atmosphere.

While rural districts like Gadchiroli and Nashik reported turnout figures nearing 70%, urban centers like Mumbai lagged at just 54%, albeit an improvement from 50.67% in 2019. Suburban Mumbai, however, recorded a dismal 39.34%, highlighting a persistent urban apathy toward voting. In the Marathwada region, turnout exceeded 70% in 20 of its 46 constituencies, with 17 of these currently held by the ruling Mahayuti alliance.

High Turnout: A Double-Edged Sword

Traditionally, high voter turnout has been interpreted as a sign of dissatisfaction with the incumbent government. However, both the Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) have seized upon this figure as evidence of their impending victory. Outgoing Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis expressed confidence, stating, “Whenever voting percentage increases, it benefits the BJP.” On the other hand, Sena MP Sanjay Raut dismissed exit polls favoring the Mahayuti as “fraudulent,” asserting the MVA’s prospects remain strong.

Exit Polls: Divided Predictions

Exit polls have painted a mixed picture. Of the nine major surveys, five project a clear victory for the Mahayuti, while three suggest a tight contest with no clear winner. The ninth even predicts an MVA win, indicating the unpredictable nature of this election. The Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, Shinde-led Sena faction, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction, is predicted to secure around 150 seats. Meanwhile, the opposition MVA, which includes the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena faction, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction, is pegged at 125 seats.

The Legacy of 2019 and Its Aftermath

The 2019 Maharashtra election saw a strong showing by the BJP and the then-united Shiv Sena, winning 105 and 56 seats, respectively. However, their alliance unraveled spectacularly over power-sharing disagreements, leading to the formation of the MVA coalition. Uddhav Thackeray’s unexpected alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP stunned political observers, marking a rare instance of ideologically disparate parties uniting to govern.

This alliance, despite its unlikely origins, lasted nearly three years before Eknath Shinde’s rebellion split the Shiv Sena. Aligning with the BJP, Shinde ousted Thackeray and assumed the Chief Minister’s chair. A year later, a similar rebellion fractured the NCP, with Ajit Pawar joining the Mahayuti and becoming Deputy Chief Minister.

A State at Political Crossroads

The high-stakes 2024 election reflects the deeply polarized political landscape of Maharashtra. With exit polls offering no definitive answers and both alliances staking bold claims, the outcome remains uncertain. Saturday’s vote count will not only determine the next government but also shape the trajectory of Maharashtra’s political future.

In a state accustomed to dramatic power shifts and intense political rivalries, this election underscores the complexities of coalition politics and the ever-evolving aspirations of its electorate. Whether the high turnout heralds change or continuity, one thing is certain: Maharashtra’s political saga continues to captivate.