The opening phase of the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 witnessed an impressive 60.13% voter turnout (provisional till 5 PM) — marking a rise of over 4% from the first phase of 2020. The surge in participation has sparked intense political debate, with many seeing it as a possible sign of anti-incumbency against the ruling BJP-JDU coalition.
For the opposition Mahagathbandhan—led by Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD and the Congress—this turnout is an encouraging sign, potentially signaling voter fatigue with the current regime.
The turnout spike comes despite the deletion of nearly 47 lakh names during the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of Bihar’s electoral rolls. Opposition parties had criticized the move, alleging it disproportionately affected poor and marginalized communities, traditional supporters of the Mahagathbandhan.
Before the revision, Bihar had 7.89 crore registered voters, which has now fallen to 7.42 crore. Analysts note that while this reduction may partly inflate turnout percentages, the consistent enthusiasm observed across polling stations suggests genuine voter engagement rather than mere statistical adjustment.
Political observers often argue that high voter turnout reflects a desire for change, especially in states like Bihar, where elections are deeply influenced by regional loyalties and governance fatigue.
Historical trends support this view.
- In 2010, when Nitish Kumar’s JDU-BJP alliance registered a landslide win, voter turnout was 52.73%.
- In 2015, when Kumar allied with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD, turnout rose by over 4%, and the alliance swept the polls.
- In 2020, after Nitish returned to the BJP fold, turnout climbed slightly to 57.29%, but the JDU’s seat count fell sharply, making it a junior partner.
Now, with 60.13% turnout in 2025’s first phase, the trend may again indicate shifting sentiments—though analysts caution that turnout alone doesn’t determine the outcome.
The first phase covered 121 of Bihar’s 243 constituencies, with the remaining 122 voting on November 11. Some key contests drew widespread attention:
- Raghopur (Tejashwi Yadav’s stronghold) – recorded 64.01% turnout, up 4.32% from 2020. The seat has a long family legacy, with Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi having represented it multiple times.
- Tarapur (Samrat Choudhary – BJP) – witnessed 58.33% turnout, reflecting a competitive fight in this crucial seat.
- Alinagar (Maithili Thakur – BJP) – drew 58.05% turnout, with the folk singer-turned-politician making her debut.
- Mokama (JDU) – reported 62.16% turnout, amid controversy following the arrest of candidate Anant Singh.
While high turnout has historically correlated with anti-incumbency in Bihar, exceptions exist. In Chhattisgarh (2008–2013) and Madhya Pradesh (2003–2013), voter participation surged significantly, yet the ruling BJP retained power both times.
Political scientists emphasize that Bihar’s voter dynamics are shaped by caste equations, local issues, and regional leadership, making predictions based solely on turnout premature.
With one more phase of polling scheduled for November 11, the next few days will be crucial. The results, set to be declared on November 14, will determine whether the Mahagathbandhan’s promise of “one government job per household” has struck a chord with voters—or if Nitish Kumar’s alliance still commands enough trust for another term.
