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India’s monetary landscape is shifting. With the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) trimming the repo rate by a cumulative 50 basis points since February, the dominoes are beginning to fall—and banks may be next in line. A recent report from SBI suggests that this monetary easing could soon translate into reduced interest rates for borrowers, nudging the economy toward a more accommodative credit environment.

But there’s more at play than just interest rates. The RBI, through a series of regulatory and developmental policy moves, seems to be laying the groundwork for a more flexible, resilient financial system. Let’s break down what this means for the broader economy and for borrowers, banks, and investors.


A Softening Interest Rate Environment

Following the initial 25 basis point repo rate cut in February, changes on the ground were gradual. Public sector banks trimmed deposit rates by 6 basis points, while foreign banks made deeper cuts of around 15 basis points. Interestingly, private banks bucked the trend with a minor increase in rates—up by 2 basis points.

Still, the trend line points downward. The SBI report notes that the weighted average lending rate (WALR) for public sector and scheduled commercial banks has closely mirrored the policy rate movement, signalling effective monetary transmission in progress. If this momentum holds, borrowers may soon find loans becoming more affordable.


A New Architecture for Stressed Assets

In parallel with the rate action, the RBI is widening the toolkit to deal with stressed assets. The regulator is preparing to introduce a new market-based framework for securitisation—adding a fresh layer of flexibility to the existing ARC route under the SARFAESI Act, 2002.

This initiative could be pivotal. By diversifying the mechanisms through which distressed assets are handled, banks may find it easier to clean up their balance sheets without being locked into a single recovery route. For an economy where Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) have long been a sticking point, this shift is both timely and tactical.


Reimagining Co-Lending and Gold Loan Norms

Co-lending arrangements, until now limited to banks and NBFCs operating in the priority sector, may soon be expanded to include all regulated entities. While this proposition is still under examination, its potential to democratise credit access and deepen lending partnerships is significant.

Gold loans, too, are coming under sharper regulatory focus. With a spike in gold prices and portfolio volumes, the RBI is expected to revisit norms governing loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, distribution channels, and interest structures. The aim is to harmonise guidelines across all lender categories—regulated or otherwise—and to issue comprehensive conduct-based and prudential regulations.


A Boost for Infrastructure Financing

Perhaps one of the most strategic reforms is the proposed review of norms surrounding non-fund-based facilities—especially partial credit enhancements (PCE). At present, capital requirements for PCEs are disproportionately high, limiting their effectiveness in supporting infrastructure bonds. The RBI’s move to possibly recalibrate these norms could unlock fresh capital flows for infrastructure development and deepen the corporate bond market.

This intent aligns closely with provisions highlighted in the Union Budget, underscoring a coordinated fiscal-monetary strategy to bolster long-term capital formation.


UPI Limits Revised for Merchant Payments

In a nod to the evolving digital ecosystem, the RBI has also greenlit the upward revision of transaction limits for person-to-merchant (P2M) UPI payments. Peer-to-peer transfers will remain capped at ₹1 lakh. But this recalibration is expected to boost high-value merchant payments, including government and tax-related transactions—a move that reflects growing trust in the UPI framework as a scalable payments backbone.


Policy Agility Amid Global Flux

What ties all these developments together is the RBI’s ability to remain agile in the face of an uncertain global environment. While some policy moves may seem routine, they are subtly calibrated to ensure macroeconomic stability and market confidence.

With FY26 on the horizon and fresh economic headwinds potentially brewing, today’s policy approach sends a clear message: the central bank is keeping its powder dry while staying ready to respond decisively.


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In a major development for India’s economic landscape, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to implement a 75 basis point (bps) repo rate cut in 2025, bringing relief to borrowers and businesses alike. According to the latest SBI Research Ecowrap report, the rate reductions are likely to occur in three phases—April, June, and October—each by 25 bps.

This anticipated monetary policy shift comes as inflationary pressures ease, industrial production picks up, and the corporate sector demonstrates resilience despite global uncertainties.

Why the Rate Cuts? Understanding the Economic Indicators

SBI’s research projects Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation to fall to 3.9% in Q4 FY25, with an average inflation of 4.7% for the entire year. The declining inflation rate, coupled with strong industrial growth, has paved the way for a more accommodative stance from the RBI.

For FY26, inflation is expected to remain stable between 4.0% and 4.2%, with core inflation slightly higher at 4.2% to 4.4%. These projections suggest that India’s economy is gradually moving towards a more stable inflationary environment, making a series of rate cuts feasible.

The Driving Factors Behind Inflation Trends

One of the most notable trends in February 2025 was the sharp decline in food inflation, which dropped to 3.84%, thanks to plummeting vegetable prices. For the first time in 20 months, vegetable inflation turned negative, primarily due to major price drops in garlic, potatoes, and tomatoes.

Interestingly, the MahaKumbh festival played a role in reducing garlic consumption, while fruit prices surged due to increased demand during fasting periods.

However, while domestic inflation has eased, imported inflation has surged dramatically—from just 1.3% in June 2024 to a staggering 31.1% in February 2025. This spike is attributed to rising global prices of precious metals, oils, and chemical products. The depreciating rupee could further contribute to inflationary pressures in the months ahead.

India’s Industrial and Corporate Performance: A Silver Lining

Despite global headwinds, India’s industrial production (IIP) posted strong growth of 5% in January 2025, up from 3.2% in December 2024. The manufacturing sector led with a 5.5% increase, while mining expanded by 4.4%.

Although cumulative growth from April 2024 to January 2025 stood at 4.2%—lower than last year’s 6%, the corporate sector showed remarkable resilience.

According to SBI Research, around 4,000 listed companies reported:
✔ 6.2% revenue growth in Q3 FY25
✔ 11% rise in EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization)
✔ 12% growth in Profit After Tax (PAT) compared to the previous year

Sectors such as Capital Goods, Consumer Durables, FMCG, Healthcare, and Pharmaceuticals showed robust expansion, reinforcing India’s economic stability amid global turbulence.

What This Means for the Indian Economy

With lower inflation, expected rate cuts, and strong corporate performance, India’s economy appears to be on a stable footing. However, the rising cost of imports and global economic uncertainties remain key risk factors.

As the RBI gears up for a 75-bps rate cut cycle, borrowing costs are expected to decline, encouraging higher investments, increased consumer spending, and further economic growth.

For businesses, these monetary policy adjustments could provide a much-needed boost, fostering an environment of greater liquidity and financial flexibility.

With April’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting just around the corner, all eyes will be on how RBI responds to these evolving economic trends. Will the central bank stay on course with the expected rate cuts, or will global uncertainties prompt a rethink? The coming months will be crucial in shaping India’s monetary policy trajectory for 2025 and beyond.

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has officially reversed its interest rate cycle, cutting the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25% in its first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2025. This much-anticipated move, announced by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, signals a fresh phase of economic stimulus, providing relief to borrowers and bolstering liquidity in the financial system.


The Decision: A Calculated Shift

The MPC meeting, held from February 5 to 7, 2025, marked a significant policy shift under Malhotra’s leadership after he succeeded Shaktikanta Das in December 2024. The decision follows the ₹1.16 trillion liquidity boost announced in December 2024, when the RBI cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 bps to 4% while keeping the repo rate steady at 6.5%.

This time, however, with inflationary pressures easing and economic growth requiring a fresh push, the MPC found it prudent to reduce the policy rate while maintaining a neutral stance—leaving room for further adjustments in upcoming meetings.


Key Highlights from Experts

1. Inflation and Growth Outlook

Economists and market experts have largely welcomed the rate cut, given that inflation has shown signs of moderation. According to Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader, Economic Advisory at PwC India, the RBI’s move aligns with expectations, considering a decline in food inflation and a controlled core inflation rate.

With inflation estimates for FY26 pegged at 4.2%, well within the RBI’s tolerance range, the monetary policy support is expected to fuel demand and economic expansion, further complemented by tax relief measures announced in the Union Budget.

2. Revised GDP Projections

Economic growth projections have been moderately adjusted:
✅ FY25 GDP growth revised down to 6.4% (from 6.6%)
✅ FY26 GDP expected to remain strong at 6.7%

3. Banking & Credit Markets

The rate cut is set to impact the banking sector in multiple ways:

🔹 Credit Growth Slowdown: Banks have witnessed a cautious lending approach, particularly in unsecured segments, either due to asset quality concerns or softening demand.

🔹 Winners in the Rate Cut Cycle: Lenders with higher fixed-rate loan portfolios—such as credit card issuers, vehicle financiers, and gold loan providers—stand to gain. Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam Investment & Finance, and Shriram Finance have been highlighted as key beneficiaries.

🔹 Challenges for Floating-Rate Lenders: Banks with a higher floating-rate loan exposure may face temporary margin pressures, though a revival in credit demand from recent budget measures could offset this impact.


What’s Next? More Rate Cuts on the Horizon?

Market experts believe that this repo rate cut is just the beginning. Naveen Kulkarni, CIO at Axis Securities PMS, anticipates another 25 bps rate cut in future meetings as the RBI aims to balance growth and inflation control.

With inflation cooling, economic momentum building, and liquidity infusions boosting consumption, India’s financial landscape is poised for a dynamic shift.

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In a move that bodes well for the real estate sector, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the ninth consecutive time. This decision, announced on August 8, aligns seamlessly with the recent announcement on August 7 regarding indexation benefits on the sale of property, offering a double boost to the real estate market.

The RBI’s choice to maintain the current policy rate offers much-needed stability to the housing market, particularly at a time when food inflation remains a concern. With the repo rate holding steady, home loan EMIs will remain manageable for both current and prospective homeowners, a development that could drive an uptick in home sales, especially in the price-sensitive affordable housing segment.

“The monetary policy committee decided by a 4:2 majority to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate remains at 6.25%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the bank rate at 6.75%,” said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das during the policy announcement.

Real estate experts are optimistic about the potential impact of this decision. Anuj Puri, Chairman of ANAROCK Group, noted, “Maintaining interest rates offers consistency in borrowing costs, which will prompt more aspiring homebuyers to consider taking the plunge—thus driving demand in the housing market. With interest rates staying steady, EMIs will remain manageable, potentially leading to increased home sales.”

The RBI’s decision also coincides with the recent announcement of indexation benefits, which is expected to have a positive impact on the property market. The indexation benefits allow for adjustments to the purchase price, taking inflation into account, which in turn reduces capital gains tax upon the sale of property. This tax advantage makes real estate investments more appealing, further spurring demand and capital flow into the housing sector.

Samantak Das, Chief Economist and Head of Research and REIS, India, JLL, emphasized the significance of the RBI’s steady approach: “The RBI’s intention in keeping rates unchanged is to ensure a stable interest rate environment and price stability, which is crucial for sustained growth. However, future rate cuts in India will primarily be influenced by domestic factors.”

Looking ahead, experts believe that the sentiment in the real estate sector is likely to remain positive throughout the upcoming festive season. The combination of stable interest rates and recent government initiatives, such as the rationalization of stamp duty charges and concessions for women homebuyers, is expected to further support this momentum.

Vimal Nadar, Senior Director and Head of Research at Colliers India, remarked, “Strong visibility in financing charges should help homebuyers and developers alike in the upcoming festive season. The partial withdrawal of the applicability of the revised LTCG tax arising out of the sale of land and buildings retrospectively provides elbow room to affect housing sales with minimal tax outgo. This is likely to buoy investor and homeowner sentiment, benefiting the real estate sector at large.”

Real estate developers have welcomed the RBI’s decision, viewing it as a positive signal for the industry. G Hari Babu, National President of NAREDCO, expressed confidence in the stable environment created by the unchanged repo rate and the RBI’s forecast of 7.2% GDP growth for FY25. “With steady borrowing costs, home loans become more affordable, which is likely to boost demand in the housing market, especially during the upcoming festive season,” he said.

The RBI’s balanced approach to economic management, amidst global economic uncertainties, has reassured investors and provided a stable backdrop for the real estate sector to thrive. As the festive season approaches, the current status quo on the repo rate is expected to further support the momentum in the housing market, creating a conducive environment for both homebuyers and developers.

In conclusion, the RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate steady is a welcome development for the real estate sector, offering stability and predictability in borrowing costs. Combined with recent government initiatives, this move is likely to boost demand in the housing market, particularly in the affordable segment, and position real estate as a strong avenue for long-term wealth growth.

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