The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has officially reversed its interest rate cycle, cutting the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25% in its first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2025. This much-anticipated move, announced by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, signals a fresh phase of economic stimulus, providing relief to borrowers and bolstering liquidity in the financial system.
The Decision: A Calculated Shift
The MPC meeting, held from February 5 to 7, 2025, marked a significant policy shift under Malhotra’s leadership after he succeeded Shaktikanta Das in December 2024. The decision follows the ₹1.16 trillion liquidity boost announced in December 2024, when the RBI cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 bps to 4% while keeping the repo rate steady at 6.5%.
This time, however, with inflationary pressures easing and economic growth requiring a fresh push, the MPC found it prudent to reduce the policy rate while maintaining a neutral stance—leaving room for further adjustments in upcoming meetings.
Key Highlights from Experts
1. Inflation and Growth Outlook
Economists and market experts have largely welcomed the rate cut, given that inflation has shown signs of moderation. According to Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader, Economic Advisory at PwC India, the RBI’s move aligns with expectations, considering a decline in food inflation and a controlled core inflation rate.
With inflation estimates for FY26 pegged at 4.2%, well within the RBI’s tolerance range, the monetary policy support is expected to fuel demand and economic expansion, further complemented by tax relief measures announced in the Union Budget.
2. Revised GDP Projections
Economic growth projections have been moderately adjusted:
âś… FY25 GDP growth revised down to 6.4% (from 6.6%)
âś… FY26 GDP expected to remain strong at 6.7%
3. Banking & Credit Markets
The rate cut is set to impact the banking sector in multiple ways:
🔹 Credit Growth Slowdown: Banks have witnessed a cautious lending approach, particularly in unsecured segments, either due to asset quality concerns or softening demand.
🔹 Winners in the Rate Cut Cycle: Lenders with higher fixed-rate loan portfolios—such as credit card issuers, vehicle financiers, and gold loan providers—stand to gain. Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam Investment & Finance, and Shriram Finance have been highlighted as key beneficiaries.
🔹 Challenges for Floating-Rate Lenders: Banks with a higher floating-rate loan exposure may face temporary margin pressures, though a revival in credit demand from recent budget measures could offset this impact.
What’s Next? More Rate Cuts on the Horizon?
Market experts believe that this repo rate cut is just the beginning. Naveen Kulkarni, CIO at Axis Securities PMS, anticipates another 25 bps rate cut in future meetings as the RBI aims to balance growth and inflation control.
With inflation cooling, economic momentum building, and liquidity infusions boosting consumption, India’s financial landscape is poised for a dynamic shift.