Stock Market

Indian equity markets plummeted on Monday following the United States’ targeted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which triggered renewed fears of regional instability and energy supply disruption. The Sensex fell over 800 points in early trade, while the Nifty declined nearly 250 points, as global markets reacted sharply to the escalating Middle East crisis.

Market Impact: Heavy Sell-Off Across Sectors
At 9:45 AM, the BSE Sensex was down 800 points at 81,560, and the NSE Nifty stood at 24,859. The Indian stock market mirrored a global sell-off as investors rushed to reassess risk amidst rising geopolitical tensions.

Top losers on the Sensex included major tech and FMCG stocks such as:

• Infosys
• HCL Technologies
• TCS
• Hindustan Unilever

Meanwhile, Bharat Electronics Ltd and Bharti Airtel emerged as the few gainers, benefiting from rising interest in defense and telecom amid global uncertainty.

Energy and Oil Price Shock Looms
The immediate concern driving investor panic is the possibility of energy supply disruption. Oil prices spiked over 2%, reaching their highest levels since January. The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a strategic chokepoint through which nearly 20% of global crude oil passes — could destabilise energy markets.

Iran, the world’s ninth-largest oil producer, has reportedly threatened to shut the Strait in retaliation, prompting sharp reactions across global financial and currency markets.

Currency and Global Markets React
The Indian rupee dropped 17 paise to ₹86.72 against the US dollar as oil import concerns weighed on investor sentiment. Asian indices in Tokyo, Seoul, and Hong Kong also opened in the red, while US stock futures were down 0.5% during pre-market hours.

Expert Views: Volatility Expected, But Buying Opportunities May Emerge
While fears are widespread, market experts suggest the long-term impact may be limited if diplomatic efforts resume quickly.

“If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, it will impact Iran and its ally China more than anyone else,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Financial Services, advising that the broader outlook still supports a ‘buy on dips’ approach.

Devarsh Vakil of HDFC Securities noted that Nifty’s immediate support has shifted to 24,800 points, advising caution in the short term.

Background: US Strikes on Key Iranian Sites
Early Sunday morning, US bomber jets struck three major Iranian nuclear facilities — Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan — after Tehran refused to engage in talks unless Israel halted its aggression.
Satellite imagery has confirmed structural damage at the targeted sites, though intelligence analysts speculate that nuclear stockpiles may have been moved beforehand.

The sites are reportedly capable of enriching uranium up to 60%, dangerously close to weapons-grade levels. While Iran claims the programme is peaceful, the US and Israel strongly disagree, maintaining that Tehran must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.

The US-Iran conflict has pushed global markets into a new phase of uncertainty, with investors bracing for oil price shocks, currency volatility, and regional instability. While the Indian market may stabilise if the situation de-escalates, the risk of broader contagion looms if tensions continue to spiral.

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rose nearly 1% on Monday, reflecting a strong recovery in the market sentiment. The upward momentum was driven by gains in oil and IT stocks, a return to buying, and a rebound in global equities. Easing crude oil prices, despite ongoing tensions in West Asia, supported the rally and raised hope for sustained growth.

Sensex and Nifty Rally Amid Positive Cues
The Sensex jumped 677.55 points or 0.84% to close at 81,796.15. At its highest during the day, it surged by 747.22 points to 81,865.82. The broader Nifty rose by 227.90 points or 0.92% to settle at 24,946.50.

Geopolitical Developments Ease Investor Concerns
“Global markets often behave contrary to expectations. The escalation between Israel and Iran initially led to a spike in crude oil and safe-haven buying. However, the lack of direct supply disruptions, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, helped stabilise crude prices,” said Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS.

He further explained that inflation worries have cooled and investors are refocusing on strong domestic fundamentals. “Geopolitical risks tend to get priced in early. With worst-case scenarios now ruled out, markets are bouncing back. Investors are rotating capital into sectors like energy, power, defence, and capital expenditure — sectors that are less exposed to external shocks.”

Earnings, Fed Policy Support Market Mood
Dasani also stressed that healthy corporate earnings, fading recession worries, and a stable US Fed policy outlook were boosting buying sentiment. “This has encouraged a buy-on-dips approach, reflecting greater confidence in the market’s trajectory.”

Conflict Impact Limited, Investor Outlook Positive
Chirag Mehta of Quantum AMC told Moneycontrol that the key risk remained whether the Israel-Iran conflict escalates into a wider war. “If the conflict stays restricted, the market typically moves forward and focuses back on fundamentals. We’ve seen this pattern over the last few years.”

Support from Global Markets
Supportive signals from abroad also contributed to the rally. South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei 225, Shanghai’s SSE Composite, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng all closed higher. European stocks were trading in the green, while US stock futures were up around 4:30 pm IST.

Monday’s rise in Sensex and Nifty underscores a return to optimism in markets following a brief geopolitical shock. The combination of strong earnings, stable policy signals, and supportive global trends suggests investors are poised to pursue opportunities in sectors less prone to external upheaval.

Introduction: A Third Straight Day of Losses
Tuesday brought little relief for investors as Indian equity benchmarks ended in the red for the third consecutive session. Both the Sensex and the Nifty 50 saw a sharp decline of over 1 percent, raising the pressing question—are markets undergoing a healthy pullback after a strong run, or are we seeing the beginning of a more prolonged correction?

Sensex and Nifty in Reverse Gear
The BSE Sensex fell by 872.98 points, closing at 81,186.44 after a brief positive start. It hit an intraday low of 81,153.70. Only three stocks out of the 30-share index managed to close in green, while the rest dragged the index lower, with heavy selling in auto, financial, and defence stocks. The NSE Nifty wasn’t spared either—it slipped 261.55 points to end at 24,683.90.

This continued decline has taken the sheen off the recent rally, leaving investors wondering whether the market is simply cooling off or hinting at a deeper concern.

The Weighing Factors: Domestic and Global Pressures
According to Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities, the correction stems from a mix of domestic uncertainty and global volatility. Rising Covid-19 cases in Southeast Asia, particularly in Singapore and Hong Kong, have reignited fears of economic disruption. Meanwhile, global bond yields are climbing, particularly in Japan, where a bond sell-off has pushed borrowing costs higher. These developments have unsettled investor sentiment and led to cautious positioning.

Vakil also noted that traders are anxiously watching the India-U.S. trade negotiations, which adds another layer of unpredictability.

Technical Signals: Warning or Pause?
From a technical standpoint, warning lights are beginning to flash. The Nifty has closed below its 5-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since May 8. This may indicate a shift in trader behaviour—from aggressively buying dips to locking in profits.

Support for the Nifty is now seen at 24,494 and 24,378. On the upside, resistance is expected between 24,800 and 24,900. These levels could serve as important pivot points over the next few sessions.

A Bearish Candlestick and What It Could Mean
Analysts at Bajaj Broking pointed out that the Nifty has formed a bearish candlestick with a lower high and lower low, a textbook signal of a potential continuation of the downtrend. They predict the index could enter a consolidation phase, fluctuating between 24,400 and 25,200 in the short term.

This range-bound movement would allow the market to digest recent gains and correct the overbought technical indicators. Importantly, the zone between 24,350 and 24,400 will be critical—this area aligns with the 20-day EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 23,935 to 25,116.

Conclusion: Correction or Caution?
While the current drop may seem steep, many market watchers view it as a technical correction rather than a panic-driven selloff. With overbought indicators flashing red last week, a temporary pullback might be necessary to restore balance. However, with global cues turning jittery and profit-booking accelerating, the path ahead remains uncertain.

Investors would be wise to keep an eye on key support levels and broader global trends before making directional bets. The coming sessions could determine whether this is just a pause for breath—or the beginning of something deeper.