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Delhi

Delhi greeted Monday under a heavy blanket of toxic smog, with the city’s overall Air Quality Index touching 397 at 6am, according to the Central Pollution Control Board.
Low wind speeds and dropping temperatures have trapped pollutants close to the ground, pushing large parts of the capital into the ‘very poor’ and ‘severe’ categories.

Half of Delhi’s 39 monitoring stations recorded AQI levels above 400, while the remaining hovered between 300 and 400. Pollution levels have stayed alarming for nearly three straight weeks, with winter conditions and post-Diwali farm fires worsening the already fragile air quality.

Areas like Vivek Vihar and Rohini saw the most worrying readings, crossing 450 — a level known to exacerbate respiratory and cardiovascular stress.

An 18-Day Crisis Continues

From November 6 onward, Delhi has barely seen a day of breathable air. The city logged three consecutive ‘severe’ days between November 11 and 13, and the 24-hour average AQI has consistently stayed within dangerous limits.

Doctors across the capital report a sharp surge in patients complaining of persistent cough, burning eyes, headaches, and aggravated asthma. Pulmonologists warn that extended exposure to this level of pollution can leave lasting effects even in healthy adults.

In response, authorities rolled out restrictions under Stage 3 of the Graded Response Action Plan, urging residents to limit outdoor movement and reduce non-essential activities.

Public Anger Spills Onto the Streets

As the air thickened, public frustration found its way to India Gate on Sunday evening. Citizens, concerned over the prolonged health crisis, assembled to demand stronger action from the government.

But what began as a peaceful gathering escalated unexpectedly when police attempted to disperse the crowd citing obstruction to emergency vehicles. According to officials, some demonstrators allegedly used chilli spray during the scuffle.

The group leading the demonstration claimed that when “the air itself becomes poisonous,” citizens are compelled to raise their voices for basic survival. Police, however, emphasised that the protest had blocked medical teams trying to pass through the area.

Police Personnel Injured Amid Chaotic Scenes

Deputy Commissioner of Police Devesh Kumar Mahla described the incident as unprecedented, stating that it was the first time officers had been targeted with pepper spray during an air pollution protest. Several personnel faced irritation and burning in the eyes and face, and were taken to RML Hospital for treatment.

Authorities have confirmed that legal action will be initiated against those responsible for the assault.

A City Struggling for Breath and Accountability

Delhi’s pollution crisis is far from new, yet each winter seems to bring a sharper reminder of how fragile the city’s air has become. This episode — a rare mix of health emergency, public protest, and police confrontation — reflects a deeper frustration building among citizens who feel their basic right to clean air is slipping away.

As pollution levels show no signs of easing, the city stands at a crossroads between environmental exhaustion and a rising demand for accountability.

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kashiwazaki kariwa

For the first time since the Fukushima disaster shattered global confidence in atomic energy, Japan is inching toward reactivating the world’s largest nuclear power plant.
Hideyo Hanazumi, governor of the Niigata region, has announced that he supports a partial restart of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant , a decision that immediately reignited national debate on energy security, corporate accountability, and public safety.

A Conditional Green Light That Could Reshape Japan’s Energy Mix

Governor Hanazumi’s approval is not the final word. The plan still requires clearance from the prefectural assembly and Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority. But his endorsement marks a turning point for Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco), the operator whose Fukushima facility suffered catastrophic meltdowns in 2011.
The proposed restart would begin with Reactor No. 6, followed by Reactor No. 7 both critical pieces of Tepco’s long-term reconstruction and financial recovery strategy.

A Region Divided Since the Tsunami That Changed Everything

More than a decade after the devastating 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami triggered the Fukushima crisis, the emotional and political terrain remains fragile.
Niigata residents remain split: a recent prefectural survey shows 50% in favour of restarting the plant and 47% opposed. Notably, nearly 70% express concern about Tepco’s ability to run the plant safely , a reminder of a past that continues to cast a long shadow.

The Legacy of Fukushima Still Shapes Today’s Decisions

When waves overwhelmed Fukushima’s seawall and flooded its reactors, the resulting radiation leak forced 150,000 evacuations, billions in cleanup costs, and a national halt of all nuclear reactors.
In the years since, Japan has slowly allowed 14 reactors to return to service, but none operated by Tepco. The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa restart would therefore represent not only a technical restart, but a symbolic one , a test of whether the company has rebuilt trust after years of scrutiny.

Energy Security and Climate Goals Are Driving the Shift

Behind the restart push lies a strategic calculation: Japan is trying to reduce its heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels while pursuing its net-zero emissions target.
Nuclear power, once politically radioactive, is now being reconsidered as a domestic, low-carbon option especially as global energy markets grow more uncertain.

Governor Hanazumi’s decision signals that portions of Japan’s leadership see a controlled return to nuclear power as essential for long-term energy stability.

What Happens Next?

The prefectural assembly will debate the governor’s decision in December, after which the national nuclear regulator will determine whether the plant meets strengthened post-Fukushima safety standards.
If all approvals align, Tepco could operate a nuclear reactor for the first time since 2011, a watershed moment in Japan’s complicated relationship with nuclear energy.

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India China Visa

In a significant but low-key diplomatic gesture, India has reopened tourist visas for Chinese nationals applying through its embassies and consulates across the world. The process began earlier this week, marking the first comprehensive relaxation of travel restrictions placed after the Line of Actual Control (LAC) standoff erupted in 2020.

The visa freeze had lasted for years, following escalating tensions and the deadly Galwan Valley clash that took the bilateral relationship to its lowest point in decades. Now, with missions worldwide accepting tourist visa applications, a slow but deliberate attempt to uncurl bilateral ties is clearly underway.

A Gradual Reset After Years of Friction

The decision comes roughly four months after India first resumed tourist visas for Chinese citizens within China, processing applications in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Hong Kong.
The expansion of this facility to Indian missions globally signals New Delhi’s intent to restore normal channels of travel and exchange—with no formal announcement, but unmistakable intent.

Diplomatic sources indicate that the move is part of a set of “people-centric steps” jointly agreed upon by both countries over recent months. These measures are designed not just to ease mobility but to rebuild trust after years of frozen engagement.

Direct Flights Return, Cultural Exchanges Restart

Direct flights between India and China—suspended since early 2020—resumed in October this year. This has been accompanied by other symbolic but substantive developments, including the agreement to restart the Kailash Manasarovar Yatra in the upcoming summer season.

Events marking the 75th anniversary of India–China diplomatic relations have also taken place in missions on both sides, reintroducing cultural and diplomatic warmth that had largely disappeared since the LAC tensions began.

Post-LAC Understanding Paves the Way

The shift in tone became possible after India and China reached an understanding on disengaging frontline forces along the LAC in late 2024.
This was followed by a notable meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping in Kazan, where both leaders agreed to revive suspended communication mechanisms and reopen areas of cooperation that had stalled due to the border conflict.

Since then, high-level dialogues have increased. Meetings involving foreign ministers, defence ministers, national security advisers, and Special Representatives Ajit Doval and Wang Yi have produced progress on issues ranging from military disengagement to trade and border exchanges.

Trade Signals Improve as China Responds to Indian Concerns

Diplomatically, China has moved to address some of India’s longstanding trade-related concerns, including easing restrictions on key mineral exports—particularly rare earth elements critical for manufacturing and technology supply chains.

Border trade, suspended coordination mechanisms, and sectoral cooperation have also begun to re-emerge, signalling that both nations are now viewing stabilisation as a strategic necessity rather than a symbolic gesture.

A Step Forward, Not the Final Destination

India’s decision to reopen tourist visas through its global missions is not an endpoint but rather a stepping stone.
The broader India–China relationship still carries unresolved tensions, especially regarding the border dispute. But the revival of people-to-people movements—tourists, pilgrims, professionals, students—acts as a foundation on which deeper diplomatic normalisation can be built.

For now, what stands out is the quiet, measured pace at which both nations are trying to rebuild the connective tissue that once sustained one of Asia’s most consequential relationships.

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Indian Rupee

The Indian rupee endured one of its sharpest blows of the year on Friday, slipping to 89.49 against the U.S. dollar—a level never seen before. The fall broke past the previous low of 88.80 and marked the rupee’s steepest single-day slide since May, signalling a market under pressure on multiple fronts.

Despite India’s economy showing solid growth and stock markets hovering near record highs, the currency is facing a very different reality.

Indian Rupee vs US Dollar: Monthly Trend 2025

A Perfect Storm: Outflows, Tariffs, and a Trade Deal in Limbo

The roots of the currency’s decline trace back to late August, when steep U.S. tariffs on Indian exports came into force. Since then:

  • trade volumes with the United States have weakened,
  • India’s merchandise trade deficit hit a record peak,
  • exports to the U.S. fell nearly 9% year-on-year,
  • and foreign investors pulled out $16.5 billion from Indian equities.

This combination has eroded foreign currency inflows just when global risk sentiment has turned uncertain. The result is a currency that has been sliding steadily for nearly three months.

The delay and ambiguity around a potential U.S.-India trade deal added another layer of caution. Economists say renewed clarity on the deal may be vital for reviving export orders that have slowed sharply since mid-year.

RBI Steps Back—And the Market Notices

For weeks, traders watched the Reserve Bank of India defend the 88.80 level with consistent intervention. But on Friday, that line of protection appeared to recede.

Large custodial outflows triggered stop-losses, and with the central bank not stepping in early enough, the rupee’s decline accelerated sharply.
Traders believe the RBI instead intervened closer to 89.50—allowing the market to adjust to a new range.

The shift suggests the RBI may be letting the rupee find a more natural level in the face of sustained dollar demand and global uncertainty.

India Faces the Risk of a Rare Two-Year BoP Deficit

Citi’s latest note adds another layer of concern: India may be headed for a $5 billion balance of payments deficit in FY2026. If this projection holds, it would mark the first instance since 1991 where India posts back-to-back years of BoP deficits.

A persistently weak rupee, reduced capital inflows, and sluggish export growth all feed into this possibility.

The rupee is now down 4.5% year-to-date, making it one of Asia’s weakest currencies in 2025.

New Technical Levels Shape the Market’s View

Analysts now see 89.50 as the new resistance zone for USD/INR. With importers rushing to hedge and exporters largely inactive, the rupee faces additional pressure in the near term.

FX strategists caution that sentiment remains skewed against the rupee—markets have been positioned short on INR for weeks, and the RBI appears to be allowing gradual adjustment rather than aggressively defending earlier triggers.

The rupee also touched an all-time low of 12.60 against the offshore Chinese yuan, marking an 8% drop for the year.

What Could Stabilise the Rupee?

According to ANZ’s Dhiraj Nim and other analysts, the most critical element now is the U.S.-India trade agreement.
A favorable deal—especially one that softens tariff burdens—could significantly lift investor sentiment and pull USD/INR back from current highs.

Until then, volatility remains the base case.

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Donald trump speech

In a speech that quickly stirred diplomatic ripples, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed he defused tensions between India and Pakistan earlier this year by threatening both countries with a massive 350% tariff. Speaking at the U.S.–Saudi Investment Forum on November 19, 2025, Trump framed himself as the decisive force that kept two nuclear-armed neighbors from “going at it.”

India, however, continues to categorically deny any foreign involvement—and says its de-escalation with Pakistan happened through direct military channels alone.

Trump’s Version: “I Stopped a Nuclear War Using Tariffs”

Standing before a room filled with global investors and Saudi dignitaries, Trump presented the episode as proof of his ability to resolve international conflicts through pressure rather than diplomacy.

“I said, you can go at it, but I’m putting a 350% tariff on each country,” he told the audience, adding that he refused to allow “nuclear dust floating over Los Angeles.”

He claimed:

  • both countries immediately objected,
  • he prepared to impose the tariffs,
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was ready to sign off,
  • and eventually, both sides stepped back.

Trump went on to say that Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif personally thanked him for “saving millions of lives,” and that Narendra Modi called him saying, “We’re not going to go to war.”

He framed tariffs as a diplomatic tool he used to settle “five of eight” global conflicts during his term.

India’s View: A Completely Different Story

If Trump’s account is dramatic, India’s response is decidedly grounded.

New Delhi has repeatedly dismissed claims of American mediation—publicly and consistently. According to India:

  • There was no U.S. intervention in the de-escalation process.
  • The ceasefire understanding was reached on May 10, through direct talks between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs).
  • The U.S. announcement was not reflective of the actual process.

The timeline adds context:

  • On May 7, India launched Operation Sindoor, targeting terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir after the Pahalgam attack, which killed 26 civilians.
  • Military-level communication continued afterward.
  • On May 10, both countries agreed to halt hostilities.

New Delhi insists the decision was bilateral—not brokered.

Why Trump Keeps Repeating the Claim

Since announcing on social media that Washington had helped secure a “full and immediate” ceasefire, Trump has repeated the claim over 60 times. It has now become a recurring line in speeches, interviews, and bilateral meetings—including another statement made just a day before his latest remarks.

This repetition suggests:

  • a deliberate attempt to project foreign-policy strength ahead of political milestones,
  • a narrative that positions tariffs as a trademark diplomatic tool,
  • and a desire to show influence over two major Asian rivals.

But politically useful narratives and accurate diplomatic history are not always the same thing.

The Geopolitical Undercurrent

Trump’s remarks come at a time when:

  • U.S.–India relations remain strategically important,
  • Pakistan continues to rely on American goodwill,
  • and global scrutiny of regional conflict remains high.

For India, acknowledging foreign mediation—especially U.S. mediation—is politically unacceptable.
For Trump, presenting himself as the man who prevented a South Asian war fits neatly into his broader storyline of tough, unconventional diplomacy.

It is a classic clash of political messaging versus official state positions.

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COP30

For days, negotiations at COP30 felt stuck in a holding pattern. Then came a coordinated push that reshaped the tone of the entire summit: more than 80 nations—stretching across Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Pacific, the EU and the UK—called for a clear, structured roadmap to phase out fossil fuels.

In a process often characterized by caution and slow diplomatic footwork, this collective demand injected momentum that diplomats had been waiting for.

This wasn’t just another call for ambition. It was a message:
a climate summit cannot be credible without confronting fossil fuels directly.


A Global Front: South and North Raise One Voice

In a packed hall in Belém, Marshall Islands climate envoy Tina Stege stood flanked by ministers from 20 countries and delivered what many now consider one of COP30’s defining statements:
“Let’s get behind the idea of a fossil fuel roadmap.”

Her call resonated well beyond the hall. Campaigners, negotiators, and observers described the moment as a tipping point.

Jasper Inventor of Greenpeace International said the unified stance could be “the turning point of COP30,” emphasizing that the pressure came not just from diplomats but from the 40,000 people marching through the streets of Belém demanding real action. The demand was clear: without a structured path to wind down fossil fuels, the world drifts further away from the 1.5°C goal.


Three COPs, One Stalled Promise

The idea of moving away from fossil fuels is not new.
What’s new is the force behind it.

  • COP28 (Dubai) delivered the historic headline: a pledge to transition away from fossil fuels.
  • COP29 (Baku) struggled to define what that transition actually meant.
  • COP30 (Belém) entered with expectations—only for those expectations to be disrupted.

In a surprise move, the Brazilian presidency left fossil fuel transition entirely off the official agenda, including the closed-door sessions on finance and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The omission frustrated nations that had hoped to use COP30 as a platform to operationalize fossil fuel phase-out.

That void created an opening—and supportive countries took it upon themselves to fill it.


Brazil’s Draft Text: A Glimpse of Progress, But Not Enough

Momentum increased when Brazil circulated a new draft decision text acknowledging, for the first time, that a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap might be an option.

It was a start, but countries like Vanuatu said the text lacked teeth:
no measurable targets, no timelines, and no clear mechanism for accountability.

Supporters of the roadmap stressed one thing repeatedly:
a roadmap does not impose the same deadlines on all nations. Instead, it recognises:

  • different starting points
  • differentiated responsibilities
  • the pivotal need for financing and technology
  • the unique vulnerabilities of developing countries

But barriers remain. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Bolivia, and other petrostates have signaled resistance. Even the host nation, Brazil, is wrestling with internal political divisions as parts of its government push to expand oil and gas development.


A Coalition With Numbers, But Not Yet Consensus

The coalition backing the roadmap believes it has the numbers to shift the narrative. But in UN climate negotiations, numbers alone don’t deliver outcomes. Consensus does. And consensus on fossil fuels remains elusive.

Still, something fundamental changed at COP30:
The debate on fossil fuel transition, intentionally sidelined, has been dragged firmly back to the center—by the very countries most vulnerable to climate impacts and most dependent on global cooperation.

Whether the summit ultimately delivers a roadmap remains uncertain.
But one thing is clear:
the world is no longer willing to talk about climate action without talking about fossil fuels.

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Epstein Files

The long-shadowed world surrounding Jeffrey Epstein his crimes, his network, and the silence that protected both—has taken a decisive turn. In a rare moment of overwhelming bipartisan alignment, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 427–1 to order the Department of Justice to unseal its extensive cache of Epstein-related records. The Senate has already made it clear that it will pass the measure as soon as it formally arrives.

If the bill becomes law, the Justice Department will be forced to release a massive trove of investigative documents: interview transcripts, seized materials, evidence logs, and communications collected from Epstein’s properties across different states.

And the final step now lies with former President Donald Trump.

Trump’s Unexpected Turnaround

In a move that surprised his own party, Trump—after weeks of resisting the release effort—reversed course over the weekend. He publicly urged Republicans to vote in favor of transparency, declaring that there was “nothing to hide,” even as he criticized the political timing of the debate.

The shift rattled GOP leadership. Figures who had been aligned with Trump’s earlier stance suddenly found themselves pivoting in real time. House Speaker Mike Johnson, who had repeatedly dismissed the release push as political theater, cast his vote for the measure. Others followed suit.

Some Republican lawmakers, however, expressed concern—arguing that releasing thousands of pages of sensitive material could risk damaging the reputations of individuals who may be mentioned but not implicated in wrongdoing. Congressman Clay Higgins voiced particularly strong reservations, warning of “innocent people being hurt” by the disclosures.

Survivors Demand an End to Silence

Earlier in the day, survivors of Epstein’s abuse stood before Congress, advocating for complete transparency. One survivor described their experience as years of “institutional betrayal,” pointing to the network of failures that allowed Epstein’s crimes to persist for so long.

For them, this legislation is more than political momentum—it is a step toward restoring trust in the justice system, and toward acknowledging the many voices that were sidelined or ignored.

Their testimonies were the emotional anchor of the day, reminding lawmakers—and the country—that behind the political stakes lies a deeply human story.

Why These Files Matter

The “Epstein files” have taken on a near-mythic status in public discourse. They contain:

  • Interviews with victims and former associates
  • Notes from investigators
  • Items seized in property raids
  • Communications and travel records
  • Names of individuals linked to Epstein’s social, financial, or logistical networks

While previous document releases—such as the recent 20,000-page dump from Epstein’s estate—have stirred public debate, the Justice Department’s files represent something different: the closest thing to a full, government-held archive.

Trump himself, along with many high-profile figures, has appeared in various Epstein-related documents over the years. None of those documents indicated wrongdoing by those individuals, but their inclusion has added fuel to political speculation.

With Congress now unified and Trump signaling approval, Washington is preparing for a moment that could reshape not only the narrative around Epstein but also the broader expectations of transparency in politically sensitive investigations.

A Rare Bipartisan Flashpoint

In a deeply polarized era, the overwhelming support for releasing the Epstein files stands out. It reflects a larger public frustration with secrecy—particularly in cases involving abuse, exploitation, and institutional protection.

For Congress, this is not merely a legislative vote; it is a statement that accountability should not depend on political convenience.

The coming weeks will determine whether this moment leads to long-awaited clarity—or if it introduces new waves of controversy.

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Bitcoin

After months of relentless momentum, Bitcoin has collided with a stark change in the market mood. On November 18, 2025, the cryptocurrency dropped below 90,000 for the first time in seven months, marking one of the steepest resets of the year. The broader digital-asset space has shed an extraordinary $1.2 trillion in just six weeks, signalling a decisive shift from euphoria to caution.

This is not a typical correction. The speed and scale of the decline reveal how tightly Bitcoin’s fortunes remain intertwined with macroeconomic expectations — and how vulnerable the ecosystem becomes when leverage, sentiment, and institutional flows turn at the same time.

Macro Sentiment Turns Cautious as Rate-Cut Hopes Fade

The primary force behind the reversal is a sweeping change in expectations around U.S. monetary policy. Investors had spent months positioning for imminent rate cuts, but recent data and central bank commentary disrupted that narrative. With borrowing costs likely to stay higher for longer, risk appetite has faded across global markets.

Equities have stumbled. Volatility has returned. And crypto, as one of the most rate-sensitive asset classes, is absorbing the shock directly.

The pullback isn’t happening in isolation — it’s part of a broader reduction in risk exposure.

Institutional Outflows Amplify the Slide

What began as sentiment-driven selling has been reinforced by institutional retreat. Publicly listed crypto companies — from Strategy Inc. to Riot Platforms to Coinbase — have seen sharp declines mirroring Bitcoin’s path.

ETF flows, once a dominant catalyst of the 2025 rally, have also reversed. Large outflows are draining liquidity from the market, limiting the ability of prices to stabilise and accelerating the downward pressure.

The enthusiasm that powered early-year inflows is now operating in reverse.

Leverage Unwinds Intensify the Downturn

One of the most destabilising forces in this decline is the unwinding of leverage. During Bitcoin’s rapid climb, leveraged long positions accumulated aggressively. As prices fell, these positions began hitting liquidation thresholds, creating a cascade of forced selling.

What once fuelled the uptrend is now magnifying the fall.

Alongside this, several large holders have begun locking in profits, adding further supply into an already shaky market.

Activity from Short-Term Holders Suggests Market Stress — But Also Opportunity

Blockchain patterns indicate that short-term holders have become unusually active. Historically, this kind of movement appears near inflection points — either at major bottoms or during periods of structural stress.

Long-term holders, meanwhile, are largely staying put. Their behaviour often acts as an anchor during volatile phases, offering a potential signal that the market may be transitioning into an accumulation zone.

Technical Levels: Support at Risk as Volatility Rises

Bitcoin’s current technical landscape is divided into two clear paths.

Key support: 89,500–90,000
A break below this region increases the probability of deeper declines into:
• 85,000
• 80,000

Derivatives data suggests these zones are the next major areas of interest if selling pressure accelerates.

Upside potential: 93,000–95,000
A convincing rebound from current levels could propel prices back toward this range, especially if bargain-seeking buyers emerge.

The direction now hinges on whether stability returns before technical damage deepens further.

A Split Market: Fear, Opportunity, and the Path Ahead

The crypto community is sharply divided.
• Some view this downturn as the early stage of a broader crypto winter driven by macro strain, institutional cooling, and prolonged leverage resets.
• Others see it as a rare long-term accumulation window — a familiar pattern where violent pullbacks shake out overextended positions before stronger cycles resume.

Both perspectives carry merit. What is unmistakable is that Bitcoin’s current trajectory is tied more closely than ever to the global economic backdrop.

If rate uncertainty persists, if ETF outflows continue, and if leverage remains unstable, the market could revisit lower zones. But if the macro situation steadies, this volatility may prove to be the reset required for a healthier, more durable rally.

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students

The newest Open Doors 2025 report reveals a striking shift in the global student landscape. While total international enrollment in the US grew modestly in 2024–25, the influx of new students has taken a noticeable hit. Fall 2025 saw a 17 percent drop in new international enrollments — the steepest decline in years — following a smaller 7 percent dip in the previous fall.

Visa uncertainties, shifting travel policies, and a more restrictive immigration climate have all played a part. Yet amid these challenges, India remains firmly at the top of the international student pyramid, sending more students to the US than any other country for the second year running.

India Retains No. 1 Position Despite Emerging Headwinds

The 2024–25 academic year saw 3,63,019 Indian students studying in the US — a 10 percent jump from 3,31,602 the previous year. Indians now constitute nearly one-third (30.8%) of all international students in the country.

This milestone comes even as institutions report that fresh enrollment from India has softened noticeably heading into fall 2025. Only 39 percent of US colleges saw stable or rising numbers from India, while the majority reported declines.

The report suggests that the downturn in India’s new enrollments is significant enough to influence the national trend — a sign of how large the Indian student presence has become.

China Reports Its Lowest Numbers in Years

China remains the second-largest source of international students, but its presence continues to shrink. With 2,65,919 students enrolled in 2024–25 — a 4 percent decline — China has reached its lowest US enrollment level in at least eight years.

Together, India and China still account for more than half of all international students in the US, but their trajectories have clearly diverged.

Visa Concerns and Travel Restrictions Remain the Biggest Roadblocks

According to the survey of over 825 US institutions:

  • 96 percent cited visa-related concerns as a major factor behind declining new enrollments in 2025.
  • 68 percent pointed to travel restrictions or logistical barriers.
  • Administrative policies under the Trump administration — including stricter visa scrutiny and enhanced social media screening — continue to cast uncertainty for prospective applicants.

Despite the headwinds, institutions overwhelmingly emphasise the academic and economic value international students bring. Over 81 percent highlighted the importance of global perspectives on campus, while 60 percent stressed their financial contributions.

New Enrollment Declines Hit Graduate Programs Hardest

The underlying details of the report show a split pattern:

  • New undergraduate enrollments grew by 5 percent in 2024–25.
  • New graduate enrollments, however, fell by 15 percent, pulling the overall numbers into negative territory.

This is particularly significant because Indian students have traditionally gravitated toward graduate-level STEM programs — sectors that remain in demand but now face higher barriers to entry.

STEM Continues to Dominate International Student Choices

More than 57 percent of all international students in the US pursued STEM fields in 2024–25. This sustained interest highlights the enduring appeal of American research ecosystems, tech-driven career opportunities, and post-study work pathways linked to STEM degrees.

International students, overall, made up 6.1 percent of the US higher education population — a strong indicator of the country’s continued pull despite policy turbulence.

What Fall 2025 Signals for the Coming Years

The fall 2025 “snapshot,” offering early insights into the 2025–26 academic cycle, shows a measurable tightening:

  • 17 percent decline in new international enrollments
  • More institutions reporting difficulty in attracting Indian students
  • Stabilising or rising enrollments from China and South Korea

The data suggests that the US remains a top global destination, but the path to entry is becoming more complex — especially for students from India.

The next year will depend heavily on visa reforms, diplomatic clarity, and how the US competes with emerging education hubs like Canada, the UK, and Australia, all of which have rolled out student-friendly policies.

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India's GDP

India’s economic trajectory continues on a stable path, with fresh estimates suggesting that GDP growth in the July–September quarter (Q2 FY26) will come in at around 7%. Although this marks a moderation from the 7.8% growth recorded in the first quarter of the fiscal year, the performance still reflects resilience across major sectors despite a more tempered rise in services and agriculture.

Alongside GDP, gross value added (GVA) is also expected to ease slightly from 7.6% in Q1 to 7.1% in Q2, indicating a shift in the contributions of various segments of the economy as the quarter progressed.

Sectoral Dynamics: Industry Surges as Services and Agriculture Cool

According to the analysis, the most notable change lies in the contrasting trajectories of industry and services. The services sector—long viewed as the backbone of India’s growth—likely expanded at 7.4%, significantly below its 9.3% rise in Q1. Agriculture too softened, dipping marginally from 3.7% to 3.5%.

However, this moderation is partially offset by a strong rebound in the industrial sector. Industry is projected to post a five-quarter high of 7.8%, up sharply from the previous quarter’s 6.3%.

This momentum is attributed to a combination of early festive-season inventory stocking, higher production volumes following GST rationalisation, and front-loaded exports to the United States ahead of tariff changes. Together, these factors created a temporary but meaningful boost in manufacturing activity.

GVA-GDP Spread Expected to Narrow Again

One of the more technical but important insights from the report is the expected reversal in the GVA-GDP growth gap. After turning positive in Q1, the spread is forecast to slip back into negative territory by around 10 basis points.

A significant reason is the contraction in net indirect taxes—shifting from a robust 9.5% growth in Q1 to a decline of 5.2% in Q2. Subsidies, while still negative, also shrank at a slower pace. These tax and subsidy adjustments played a key part in GDP calculations and influenced the overall spread.

Government Spending Slows, Influencing Growth Pace

The quarter also saw a more restrained rise in government expenditure. Economists highlight that this softer fiscal impulse could weigh on GDP and GVA compared to the stronger momentum visible in the opening months of the fiscal year.

Yet, the private sector’s activity and manufacturing uplift helped prevent a deeper moderation in headline growth.

Capital Expenditure Trends Show Mixed Signals

Capital expenditure remained a central component of the growth narrative, though the numbers point to a normalization from the previous quarter’s surge.

Gross capital expenditure growth slowed to 30.7% year-on-year in Q2 FY26, easing from the exceptionally high 52% jump in Q1. However, when compared to the same period a year ago, capex remains on a significantly stronger base.

In absolute terms, average monthly capex climbed to Rs 1,019 billion in Q2—up from Rs 917 billion in Q1. Meanwhile, average monthly private capex rose to Rs 544 billion, nearly half the government’s level, and considerably higher than the Rs 378 billion average recorded in Q1.

These numbers show that although the pace of growth has settled, investment activity across the economy remains elevated.

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