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Teachers Day 2025: A tribute to wisdom and guidance.

by theparliamentnews.com
written by theparliamentnews.com
Teachers Day

Every year on September 5, India celebrates Teachers Day to honour the tireless dedication of educators who shape the future of students. The day also commemorates the birth anniversary of Dr. Sarvepalli Radhakrishnan, the former President of India, renowned philosopher, and visionary teacher who believed that teachers should be the “best minds in the country.” When his students wished to celebrate his birthday, he humbly suggested that the day be marked as Teachers’ Day instead—a reflection of his belief in the nobility of teaching.

Why Teachers’ Day Matters

Teachers’ Day is not just another date on the calendar. It is a heartfelt occasion for students, schools, and institutions across the nation to express gratitude. From special assemblies and cultural programs to personal gestures of appreciation, the day allows students to acknowledge the hard work and sacrifices of their mentors. It is a reminder that teaching is more than imparting knowledge—it is about inspiring, guiding, and shaping lives.

Inspiring Quotes for Teachers’ Day

  1. “A teacher affects eternity; he can never tell where his influence stops.” – Henry Adams
  2. “It is the supreme art of the teacher to awaken joy in creative expression and knowledge.” – Albert Einstein
  3. “Good teaching is more a giving of right questions than a giving of right answers.” – Josef Albers
  4. “Teaching is the profession that teaches all other professions.” – Anonymous
  5. “A good teacher is like a candle—it consumes itself to light the way for others.” – Mustafa Kemal Atatürk

Heartfelt Wishes for Teachers’ Day 2025

  • Wishing all teachers a day filled with respect, gratitude, and love. Happy Teachers’ Day 2025.
  • To the mentors who shaped our paths with wisdom and patience, thank you for being our guiding stars.
  • Teachers are not just educators, but builders of character and creators of hope. Warm wishes on Teachers’ Day.
  • Your lessons go beyond textbooks and classrooms—they live in the way we think, act, and dream. Happy Teachers’ Day.
  • To the teachers who inspire curiosity, ignite passion, and instil discipline—you are the real heroes.

Status Updates and Messages for Teachers’ Day

  • “Behind every successful student is a teacher who never gave up on them.”
  • “Teaching is not just a job, it’s a legacy of shaping generations.”
  • “A teacher plants seeds of knowledge that grow forever.”
  • “Gratitude to the hands that guided, the voices that encouraged, and the hearts that inspired.”
  • “Happy Teachers’ Day to those who turn ordinary lessons into extraordinary life experiences.”

The Lasting Influence of Teachers

The celebration of Teachers’ Day 2025 is not just symbolic—it is a reminder of the immeasurable influence teachers have on society. They ignite dreams, nurture skills, and guide values that last a lifetime. Honouring them is not confined to one day, but September 5 provides the perfect occasion to collectively express the gratitude we often carry silently.

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BlogEducation & TechFeaturedIndia

GST Slabs Reduced from Four to Two; Big Relief from September 22

by theparliamentnews.com
written by theparliamentnews.com
GST

GST Council Introduces Simplified Two-Tier Structure

In a landmark reform, the GST Council has approved a simplified tax system with just two slabs—5% and 18%. The decision was finalized during the 56th GST Council meeting chaired by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, following over ten hours of discussion. Effective from September 22, the new structure is designed to reduce complexities, make compliance easier, and deliver relief to households and small businesses.

Focus on Common Man and Key Sectors

Announcing the reform, Finance Minister Sitharaman emphasized that the changes were made with the everyday consumer in mind. Items of mass consumption have seen sharp reductions, and labour-intensive industries received substantial support. The agricultural sector, farmers, and the healthcare industry stand out as key beneficiaries of the new structure.

Updated GST Rates Across Essentials

Several categories of daily use products and services have been shifted to the lower 5% slab. Ultra-High Temperature (UHT) milk has been made completely tax-free. Dairy products like paneer, butter, cheese, and ghee now attract either nil or 5%, significantly lower than earlier rates. Packaged staple foods such as biscuits, pasta, chocolates, and cereals have all been reduced to 5%, making them more affordable for the middle class.

Dry fruits and nuts, including almonds and cashews, will now be taxed at 5% compared to the earlier 12%. Similarly, refined sugar, confectionery, vegetable oils, meat products, and namkeens have all been moved to the lower slab. Mineral and aerated waters (without added sugar) also fall under the 5% bracket. Fertilisers, seeds, and crop nutrients—critical for the agriculture sector—will now be taxed at 5%, reducing the burden on farmers.

In healthcare, life-saving drugs, medical devices, and select products now attract 5% or are completely exempt. Commonly used household appliances, footwear, and textiles have been reduced from higher brackets to 5% or 18%, ensuring relief for mass-market consumers.

Goods Retaining High Tax Rates

The Council, however, kept high GST and cess rates intact for sin and luxury goods. Pan masala, gutkha, cigarettes, chewing tobacco, and similar products remain in the highest tax slab, with valuation shifted to the retail sale price method to plug revenue leaks. High-end luxury cars, premium liquor, and certain aerated beverages with added sugars will now attract 40% GST, a significant increase aimed at discouraging consumption of luxury and harmful goods.

Exemptions and Relief Measures

Several exemptions have been introduced to further ease the burden on households. UHT milk, paneer, and Indian breads such as chapati, roti, paratha, and parotta are now fully exempt. Individual life insurance policies, including ULIPs and endowment plans, have been exempted from GST as well. These measures are expected to bring much-needed financial relief and encourage wider insurance adoption among the middle class.

PM Modi Welcomes Reform as Next-Generation GST

Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed the Council’s decision, describing it as a next-generation reform. He stated that the two-slab structure would simplify taxation, reduce compliance issues, and empower the common man, small traders, farmers, and MSMEs. He also highlighted that these changes align with the government’s promise to improve ease of doing business and enhance affordability for consumers.

The Road Ahead

The two-tier GST reform is one of the most significant changes since the implementation of GST in 2017. By addressing both consumption and industry needs, the move is expected to boost economic activity while protecting the interests of citizens. However, its real impact will become clear as businesses transition to the new system and adapt their pricing strategies.

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BlogBusinessFeaturedIndia

Services Sector Growth in India Touches 15-Year High in August

by theparliamentnews.com
written by theparliamentnews.com
India Economy

India’s Services Sector Hits Record Growth in August

India’s services sector witnessed its sharpest expansion in 15 years during August 2025, marking a remarkable phase of economic momentum. The HSBC India Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, surged to 62.9 from 60.5 in July. While slightly lower than the preliminary estimate of 65.6, this reading firmly signals robust growth, far above the neutral 50.0 threshold.

Drivers of Growth: New Orders and Global Demand

The surge was largely fueled by a sharp rise in new business. Domestic demand remained strong, while international demand also picked up, with export orders climbing at the fastest pace in 14 months. This dual boost reflected India’s strengthening position in global services markets, with IT, finance, and consulting sectors leading the momentum.

Inflation Concerns Resurface

However, rapid expansion brought with it renewed price pressures. Input costs rose at the steepest pace in nine months, while service providers passed these costs on to consumers at the fastest rate since July 2012. Output price inflation has reached worrying levels, raising concerns that India’s broader inflation, which hit an eight-year low of 1.55% in July, may now reverse course.

Business Confidence on the Rise

Despite inflation challenges, optimism among service firms improved to a three-month high. Companies expressed confidence in future demand, supported by expansion plans, advertising investments, and expectations of sustained client activity. Still, hiring growth remained modest, suggesting that businesses are cautious about expanding their workforce amid rising cost pressures.

Composite PMI Highlights Broad-Based Growth

The economic surge was not limited to services alone. The Composite PMI, which accounts for both manufacturing and services activity, rose to 63.2 in August — its highest in 17 years. This indicates that India’s economic momentum is well-rounded, supported by both domestic consumption and international business opportunities.

External Risks to Watch

Amid this optimism, external risks loom large. The U.S. government’s recently imposed 50% tariff on Indian goods could dampen future growth prospects, particularly if trade tensions escalate. Balancing domestic demand with global headwinds will be critical for sustaining momentum in the coming quarters.

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BlogEducation & TechFeatured

ChatGPT Suffers Global Outage: What We Know So Far

by theparliamentnews.com
written by theparliamentnews.com
ChatGPT

The world’s most popular AI chatbot, ChatGPT, went offline for thousands of users on Wednesday, leaving many frustrated and searching for answers. Reports of disruptions started pouring in shortly after 11 am, according to Downdetector, a service that tracks online platforms and outages.

By midday, users across India, the United States, and Europe flagged issues ranging from failed responses to complete network errors on both the website and the mobile app.

How Many Users Were Affected?

Initial reports suggest that hundreds of users flagged problems within 20 minutes of the outage. At its peak, over 500 users in India alone reported issues, while thousands globally experienced disruptions. By 3:30 pm, reports had dropped significantly, with only 42 users still facing issues.

  • 85% of complaints were linked to ChatGPT not responding.
  • 13% of users reported problems with the OpenAI website.
  • 2% flagged disruptions with Writing Coach, an integrated tool.

OpenAI’s Response

As of now, OpenAI has not released an official statement regarding the cause of the outage. Some users reported that the service was working intermittently, while others continued to face errors, suggesting that the problem may have been partially resolved but not completely fixed.

Past ChatGPT Outages

This is not the first time ChatGPT has gone dark. The platform has experienced several major outages in recent months:

  • January 23, 2025: A global outage lasting over three hours disrupted users across Spain, Argentina, and the United States.
  • December 26, 2024: A technical glitch caused widespread downtime.
  • February 5, 2025: Over 22,000 outage reports were filed worldwide as ChatGPT remained inaccessible.
  • September 2025: A string of shorter outages occurred between September 1 and September 3, with disruptions lasting up to 10 minutes each.

What This Outage Means for Users

ChatGPT has become a critical tool for millions of people—students, businesses, and professionals alike. Outages highlight both the massive dependency on AI platforms and the challenges of keeping such large-scale systems consistently available. While downtime is usually short-lived, it often pushes users to explore alternatives or diversify their tools.

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BlogBusinessFeaturedIndia

Tesla Stumbles in India: Model Y Orders Below Target

by theparliamentnews.com
written by theparliamentnews.com
Tesla

Tesla ’s long-awaited arrival in India was supposed to reshape the electric vehicle (EV) market. Instead, just weeks after its launch, the American EV giant finds itself grappling with subdued demand, missed targets, and growing uncertainty in a market where price sensitivity remains king.

Since sales began on July 15, Tesla has managed to secure just over 600 orders for its Model Y, well below its internal target of 2,500 units for the year. Reports suggest that Tesla now plans to ship between 350 and 500 vehicles in 2025, with the first batch expected to arrive from Shanghai in September.

Deliveries will initially be limited to Mumbai, Delhi, Pune, and Gurugram—cities where Tesla has showrooms or experience centers.

Tesla had entered India with hopes of benefiting from import duty concessions under a potential India-US trade deal. Instead, the opposite occurred. Washington imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods in retaliation over New Delhi’s Russian oil purchases, effectively killing any chance of Tesla receiving relief on its already high import duties.

In a market where luxury EVs already face stiff competition, this blow has made Tesla’s vehicles even harder to position competitively.

Tesla’s Growing Pains Go Global

The slow start in India reflects Tesla’s broader global challenges. With softening demand in major markets and excess production capacity, the company is under pressure to find new growth avenues. India was supposed to be a key opportunity, but so far, the debut has not lived up to the hype.

Tesla has nonetheless been laying the groundwork for its long-term play in India:

  • Showrooms: The first Tesla showroom opened at Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai, on July 15, followed by a second Experience Centre at Aerocity, Delhi, on August 11.
  • Charging Network: Tesla launched its first Supercharging station on August 4 at One BKC, Mumbai, featuring V4 Superchargers (250kW DC) priced at Rs 24/kWh, along with AC Destination Chargers at Rs 14/kWh. A similar setup is available at the Delhi showroom.

The Model Y: Specs and Pricing

Tesla’s first offering for India, the Model Y, comes in two variants:

  • Model Y RWD:
    • 60kWh LFP battery
    • Range: 500 km (WLTP)
    • 0–100 km/h in 5.9 seconds
    • Top speed: 201 km/h
    • Supercharging: 238 km in 15 minutes
    • Price: Rs 59.89 lakh (ex-showroom, Delhi)
  • Model Y LR RWD:
    • Larger battery
    • Range: 622 km
    • 0–100 km/h in 5.6 seconds
    • Supercharging: 267 km in 15 minutes
    • Price: Rs 67.89 lakh (ex-showroom, Delhi)

Customers can book with a Rs 22,220 token payment, followed by a non-refundable Rs 3 lakh within a week. Optional paint schemes range from Rs 95,000 to Rs 1.85 lakh.

Tesla has also introduced its self-driving package priced at Rs 6 lakh, though many features will remain inactive until regulators approve them.

Delivery Timeline

According to Tesla’s official website:

  • Model Y RWD deliveries are expected in Q3 2025.
  • Model Y LR RWD deliveries will begin in Q4 2025.

Tesla’s slow start reveals the challenges of cracking the Indian EV market:

  • Price sensitivity remains a key hurdle.
  • Policy unpredictability complicates Tesla’s ability to plan long term.
  • Competition from more affordable EVs by Indian automakers is intensifying.

Still, with its charging network and early presence in premium hubs, Tesla may be setting the stage for future success—provided it can weather the initial turbulence.

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BlogFeaturedWorld

SCO Summit 2025: A New Chapter for India-China Relations & Putin’s Vision for the Global South

by theparliamentnews.com
written by theparliamentnews.com
SCO Summit

August 31 – September 1, Tianjin, China — The 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit stands as a monumental event, marking a turning point in both regional and global diplomacy. This year’s summit gathered world leaders, most notably Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The high-profile summit didn’t just focus on regional security, but also aimed to create new diplomatic pathways for global cooperation.

Putin’s Vision for a More Inclusive Global System

Ahead of the summit, President Putin articulated a bold vision of cooperation between Russia and China, with a clear message that their efforts will be for the benefit of all humanity. He emphasized the need to reform global governance systems, advocating for a more inclusive, non-discriminatory approach to institutions like the World Bank and the IMF. Putin underscored the importance of a fairer global financial system—one that doesn’t isolate developing nations or use sanctions as a tool for political leverage. His message positioned BRICS and the SCO as central pillars in the evolving global structure, aimed at promoting equality among nations, especially in the Global South.

India and China Move Toward Normalization

One of the most significant developments at the SCO Summit was the announcement that India and China will resume direct flights. After years of strained relations, this agreement marks a crucial step toward rebuilding diplomatic ties. The decision comes after months of back-channel negotiations, and it reflects both nations’ intent to move beyond the challenges of the past. The resumed flights will serve as a direct link between major cities in India and China, paving the way for increased trade, tourism, and people-to-people exchanges.

This announcement marks a significant softening of the relationship between the two countries, following the turbulence of the Galwan Valley conflict. Resuming direct flights is a tangible sign of the desire to improve bilateral relations and reinstate cooperation at multiple levels, including economics, culture, and diplomacy.

SCO Summit: A Platform for Multilateral Cooperation

This year’s SCO Summit also served as an important platform for countries in the Global South to amplify their voices. With over 20 member states, the SCO continues to grow in both influence and relevance, especially in addressing global challenges. The summit’s outcomes reflected an increasing push for greater multilateral engagement, both in security and economic domains.

  • Reforming Global Institutions: Putin’s call for reform echoed across many speeches at the summit. The growing power of BRICS and SCO member countries is pushing for a new world order—one that does not prioritize Western dominance but ensures equality for emerging and developing economies.
  • India-China Thaw: The announcement of resuming direct flights between India and China marked a crucial diplomatic gesture. The decision follows the positive momentum of dialogue between the two countries, which have been in the process of rebuilding trust since their border clashes.
  • Strengthening SCO’s Role: The SCO is increasingly seen as a platform that fosters cooperation not just in the security domain, but across economic, technological, and humanitarian issues. This year’s summit, with its growing number of participants and ever-expanding agenda, reinforces the organization’s potential to shape global affairs.

Conclusion: A Defining Moment in Global Diplomacy

The 2025 SCO Summit in Tianjin has been a crucial juncture in global geopolitics, offering both symbolic gestures and practical outcomes. The resumption of India-China flights is a breakthrough in bilateral relations, while Putin’s call for reform represents a clear effort to reshape global governance to be more inclusive and representative of the Global South.

The SCO, underlining its expanding role in world affairs, has shown its potential as a pivotal platform in the coming years, where multilateral cooperation can lead to more balanced global solutions. The summit has created a path toward renewed diplomatic engagement and a more equitable global order, where both regional cooperation and global reforms go hand-in-hand.

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BlogFeaturedWorld

Paetongtarn Shinawatra Removed as Thai Prime Minister: What the Scandal Means for Thailand

by theparliamentnews.com
written by theparliamentnews.com
Thailand Prime Minister

Thailand is once again facing political upheaval after its Constitutional Court ruled to remove Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office. The decision, tied to a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen, has reignited debate over Thailand’s fragile democracy, the enduring role of the Shinawatra family, and the country’s turbulent relationship with its powerful establishment.

The Scandal That Sparked the Fall

The controversy began with a leaked audio call on June 15, during heightened border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia. In the recording, Paetongtarn referred to Hun Sen as “uncle” and appeared to criticize her own military while suggesting she would accommodate Cambodia’s requests.

For critics, the remarks crossed the line, raising accusations of undermining national security and favoring a foreign power during a sensitive conflict. Weeks later, fighting along the Thai-Cambodian border claimed dozens of lives, deepening public outrage and fueling calls for her removal.

The Court’s Ruling

In a 6-3 decision, the Constitutional Court concluded that Paetongtarn “seriously violated ethical standards” and “lacked the qualifications” required under the constitution. This judgment immediately ended her premiership, just one year after she took office as Thailand’s youngest prime minister.

The ruling also dissolved her cabinet, placing ministers in caretaker roles until parliament selects a new leader.

A Family Tradition of Political Battles

The Shinawatra name has long defined Thailand’s political landscape—and its controversies.

  • Thaksin Shinawatra, Paetongtarn’s father, was ousted in 2006 and lived in exile for over a decade.
  • Yingluck Shinawatra, her aunt, was dismissed in 2014 before a military coup.
  • Other family members, including her uncle Somchai Wongsawat, have also been forced from power by court rulings.

Paetongtarn’s removal continues this cycle, highlighting how political dynasties in Thailand face repeated clashes with entrenched elites.

Coalition in Disarray

Paetongtarn’s ouster has rattled the Pheu Thai Party, which now must scramble to nominate a new prime ministerial candidate. Their only option appears to be Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former justice minister, though it is unclear if he can secure coalition support.

The situation worsened when Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul—once a key ally—resigned from his posts and left the coalition, deepening uncertainty over whether the ruling bloc can survive. If no consensus is reached, fresh elections may be the only way forward.

The Bigger Picture: Establishment vs Reform

For decades, Thai politics has followed a familiar script: elected governments with popular support clash with powerful military, royalist, and business elites. Courts often become the instrument of change, removing leaders, banning lawmakers, and even dissolving political parties.

The removal of Paetongtarn echoes past episodes where Shinawatra-backed parties won elections but struggled to hold power. Many analysts believe that despite its troubles, Pheu Thai may still be tolerated by the establishment—as a bulwark against the surging opposition People’s Party, whose reformist agenda threatens deeper systemic change.

What Lies Ahead

The verdict has left Thailand’s political future uncertain. A weakened ruling coalition, a faltering economy, and an emboldened opposition all point toward turbulent months ahead. Whether Pheu Thai can regroup or the nation is pushed toward new elections, one thing is clear: the Shinawatra dynasty’s influence endures, even as its leaders continue to be unseated.

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BlogEducation & TechFeaturedWorld

Indian Students in the U.S. Face Stricter F-1 Visa Regulations

by theparliamentnews.com
written by theparliamentnews.com

New F-1 Visa Rules for Indian Students: Key Changes and Impact

The United States has recently announced sweeping reforms to its F-1 student visa program, reshaping the academic journey for thousands of international students, particularly from India. These updates are designed to close loopholes, restrict misuse, and bring more uniformity to the student immigration system. For Indian students—who make up one of the largest groups of international scholars in the U.S.—the changes carry significant implications.

No Transfers in the First Year

One of the most notable shifts is the restriction on university or program transfers. Until now, many students would enroll in high-fee universities to secure their visas, only to switch to more affordable institutions soon after arrival. Under the new rule, F-1 visa holders must remain at their initial university for at least one academic year before requesting a transfer. This measure is aimed at curbing what U.S. officials describe as system abuse and ensuring commitment to the original institution listed on the I-20 form.

Cap on F-1 Visa Duration

Another critical change is the introduction of a fixed validity period. Previously, F-1 visas were granted for the “duration of status,” which meant students could remain as long as they maintained their enrollment. Now, visas will carry a maximum validity of four years. Students pursuing extended academic paths—such as moving from bachelor’s to master’s to Ph.D. programs—will need to leave the U.S. and reapply for a new visa if their studies exceed this timeline.

End of Back-to-Back Degrees

The practice of stacking multiple degrees at the same level without leaving the country has been discontinued. For example, pursuing consecutive master’s programs within the U.S. is no longer permitted without securing a fresh visa. This move closes a loophole that had allowed students to prolong their stay indefinitely by enrolling in overlapping courses.

Shortened OPT Grace Period

Optional Practical Training (OPT), a program that allows international students to work in the U.S. after graduation, also faces tighter rules. Once OPT authorization ends, students now have just 30 days to either secure a change of status, leave the U.S., or transition to another valid visa. Previously, the grace period was 60 days, offering students more breathing space to plan their next steps.

Why These Changes Matter

The reforms represent one of the most significant overhauls of student visa policy in recent years. They are likely to affect both current students and those preparing for Fall 2025 admissions. For Indian students, the U.S. has long been the top destination for higher education, with nearly 270,000 studying across American universities. With these new rules, future applicants must plan more strategically—factoring in costs, academic timelines, and visa renewals—before setting out for their U.S. education journey.

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BlogFeaturedIndia

Ganesh Chaturthi 2025: Spreading Joy, Devotion, and New Beginnings

by theparliamentnews.com
written by theparliamentnews.com

Ganesh Chaturthi 2025 will be celebrated on August 27, 2025, a day that symbolizes devotion, hope, and fresh starts. The arrival of Lord Ganesha into our homes and hearts is not only a spiritual tradition but also a reminder of unity and positivity.

Beyond rituals and celebrations, what truly strengthens the spirit of this festival is the exchange of heartfelt wishes. A simple blessing shared with family, friends, or colleagues has the power to spread warmth, encourage faith, and create stronger bonds.

Here are some original Ganesh Chaturthi 2025 wishes you can share:

Ganesh Chaturthi 2025 Wishes

  • Wishing you divine blessings this Ganesh Chaturthi. May Lord Ganesha guide you toward wisdom, peace, and success.
  • May the remover of obstacles open the doors to new opportunities and brighter days. Happy Ganesh Chaturthi 2025.
  • On this sacred day, may your prayers be answered and your heart filled with devotion.
  • Let the rhythm of dhols and chants of Ganpati Bappa Morya bring joy and harmony to your life.
  • Wishing you prosperity and strength to turn every challenge into an opportunity.
  • May the festival bring happiness to your home and clarity to your mind.
  • Celebrate this Ganesh Utsav with love, gratitude, and a renewed spirit of hope.
  • May your life be blessed with sweet beginnings and countless successes this festive season.
  • Lord Ganesha’s blessings are a shield of strength—may they always protect you and your family.
  • This Ganesh Chaturthi, embrace positivity and let go of doubts. The path ahead is bright with Bappa’s grace.

The Essence of Ganesh Utsav

Ganesh Chaturthi is more than just a festival—it is a celebration of faith, resilience, and community. Families prepare offerings, decorate their homes, and chant prayers with devotion, but what makes this occasion truly special is the spirit of togetherness.

As we welcome Bappa, we welcome hope. As we bid farewell, we carry with us the promise of growth, courage, and unity.

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India’s Q1 GDP Seen at 6.8%, But Tariffs Threaten Growth Outlook

by theparliamentnews.com
written by theparliamentnews.com
India's GDP

A Strong Start That May Not Last

India’s first-quarter GDP for FY26 is projected at 6.8%, making it the strongest reading of the year. But while the number looks encouraging on the surface, economists caution that this may be the high point. Growth is widely expected to taper in the quarters ahead, with forecasts slipping as low as 6.1% by Q4 — and potentially even lower if U.S. tariffs remain at 50%.

Why Economists Expect a Slowdown

The latest CNBC-TV18 poll shows Q2 growth at 6.4%, Q3 at 6.3%, and Q4 at 6.1%. These figures already assume a reduced 25% tariff. If tariffs hold at 50% through the year, India’s GDP could dip below the 6% mark, a worrying signal for policymakers and businesses alike.

Nominal GDP: The Silent Risk Factor

The debate this time isn’t just about real GDP. Nominal GDP — growth measured at current prices — is expected to fall short of the government’s target of 10.1%. Why does this matter? Lower nominal GDP impacts corporate revenues, tax collections, and makes real GDP look artificially stronger due to how inflation is accounted for.

For Q1, the GDP deflator may average around 1.5%, largely because of the unusually low WPI (0.5%) and CPI (2.7%). But economists argue this is misleading, especially since services — which dominate India’s GDP — have seen rising costs in health and education that aren’t fully reflected in the numbers.

Tax Collections and Corporate Earnings Under Pressure

Lower nominal growth translates into weaker company profits and, by extension, weaker tax revenues. Income tax collections already undershot last year’s budget estimates, and this year’s projections expect a steep 21% growth. With income tax and GST cuts in place, achieving that target looks difficult. If revenue gaps widen, governments may be forced to scale back capital expenditure, a key growth driver in recent years.

Could Consumption Be the Silver Lining?

On the positive side, tax and GST cuts could put more money in consumers’ hands, boosting demand in volume terms if not in value. Paired with lower interest rates, this could encourage private investment and job creation. If India can also negotiate a reduction in U.S. tariffs, growth could hold closer to the 6.5% level forecast by the RBI.

The Bigger Picture

Even with a promising first quarter, India faces a year clouded by global trade uncertainty, tariff wars, and a likely global slowdown. The numbers suggest resilience, but sustaining growth above 6% will require both smart domestic policy and a bit of external good fortune.

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