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In a world already navigating economic tremors, a renewed round of U.S. trade tariffs is now threatening to shake the global trading system even harder. The latest Global Trade Outlook from the World Trade Organisation (WTO), released on April 16, outlines a sobering future: what could have been a year of robust trade expansion is now on course for contraction.

The reason? Donald Trump’s latest tariff strategy, as of April 14, is poised to shave off 0.2% from global trade volumes in 2025—a sharp deviation from the 2.7% growth that was otherwise forecast. And that’s just the surface.

From Recovery to Retraction

After a brief period of optimism in 2024—when global trade grew at 2.9%, outpacing global GDP growth for the first time since 2017 (excluding the post-pandemic rebound)—2025 now paints a completely different picture. World trade is expected to shrink by 0.2%, even as global GDP slows down to 2.2%, compared to an earlier projection of 2.8%.

WTO’s report warns: this contraction isn’t the endpoint. If paused reciprocal tariffs return, the picture gets much darker. The global economy could see a 0.6 percentage point drop in growth, with trade volumes plunging by 1.5%, due to a cocktail of revived tariffs and heightened policy uncertainty.

Not Just Numbers—Real World Disruptions

While the first-order effects of tariffs are damaging enough, it’s the second-order ripple effects that raise deeper concerns. The WTO report underscores how policy unpredictability, combined with geopolitical tensions, could throw cold water on investment plans, reroute supply chains, and slow down long-term growth momentum.

Though some countries may find short-term export gains—as trade routes shift away from China—the broader impact tells a different story. China is expected to lose 77% of its exports to the U.S., and while Asia (excluding China) might see a 2% bump in exports to the U.S., it will simultaneously face a 6% surge in imports from China. This trade rebalancing may create as many complications as it solves.

North America Bears the Brunt

According to the WTO’s regional estimates, North America is projected to be the biggest drag on global trade recovery. In the baseline scenario, North American exports and imports were forecasted to grow by 2.2% and 2.8% respectively. But with the current tariff trajectory, those numbers flip into the negative: exports down 12.6% and imports falling by 9.6%.

GDP growth in North America is now set to tumble from 2% to a dismal 0.4%. In Asia, growth is expected to soften from 4.1% to 3.7%. The trade-dependent economies of the East are staring at a double whammy: disrupted access to U.S. markets and increased competition from rerouted Chinese exports.

Services Take a Hit Too

The report also flags emerging trouble for global services trade, which is deeply intertwined with goods trade. Baseline forecasts had commercial services expanding by 5.1% in 2025, but that’s now revised down to 4%. Transport and tourism, naturally, will absorb the biggest blows, but even digitally delivered services—an area where countries like India excel—are forecasted to slow from 6.6% to 5.6%.

The Threat of Bloc Economies and Long-Term Fractures

One of the most striking takeaways from the report is its long-range simulation of what happens if the world splits into two hardened economic blocs. In such a scenario—driven by 100% reciprocal tariffs, greater non-tariff barriers, and amplified uncertainty—global real GDP could plunge by nearly 7% by 2040.

And it’s the low-income economies that would be left most vulnerable, with potential losses of more than 9%, the report warns.

Friend-Shoring: India’s Lost Opportunity?

For India, there’s an additional twist. The current trade tensions could put a damper on the much-hyped “China+1” strategy, which had placed India as a top destination for companies diversifying their manufacturing bases. Rising uncertainty might make firms hit pause on expansion plans. The momentum of friend-shoring—the idea of relocating to politically aligned nations—could slow, leaving India in a wait-and-watch limbo.

The world’s trade engine is at a precarious crossroad. While the dust of past trade wars had barely begun to settle, a new wave of protectionism is ready to redraw the map once more. For businesses, policymakers, and economies around the world, the coming year will demand more than just adjustment—it will demand resilience, foresight, and collaboration.

The WTO may be cautious in its tone, but its message is crystal clear: in a global economy built on interdependence, everyone loses when walls go up.