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Ruling Coalition Fails to Secure Majority

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s political future hangs in the balance following a disappointing performance by his ruling coalition in the latest upper house elections held on Sunday. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its ally Komeito failed to secure the 125-seat majority needed in the 248-member upper house, a critical loss for a party that has dominated Japanese politics for 70 years.

Despite having 75 uncontested seats, NHK projections confirmed that the coalition was unable to acquire the remaining 50 seats, signaling a historic shift in Japan’s legislative landscape.

Historic First: Coalition Fails to Control Either House

For the first time in LDP’s 70-year history, the ruling coalition no longer controls either the upper or lower house of the National Diet. While Prime Minister Ishiba vowed to remain in power, political analysts argue that this result drastically weakens his mandate.

The defeat follows the LDP’s earlier setback in the lower house elections in October and further exposes the party to internal challenges and no-confidence motions.

Breakdown of the Election System

Japan’s upper house has 248 seats, with elections held every three years for half the chamber. This cycle included 124 seats and one additional seat to fill a vacancy. Of these, 75 were filled through electoral districts and 50 through proportional representation.

The ruling coalition’s return of only 47 seats fell short of the required majority. Meanwhile, the main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party, secured 22 seats, consolidating its position.

Far-Right Sanseito Party Gains Ground

One of the most surprising outcomes was the meteoric rise of the far-right populist Sanseito party, which increased its seat count from 1 to 14. While it remains a minor player in the lower house, its sudden popularity reflects growing support for its “Japanese First” stance, anti-immigrant rhetoric, and populist economic promises like tax cuts and welfare reform.

Founded on YouTube in 2020 during the pandemic, Sanseito capitalized on conspiracy theories and dissatisfaction with the LDP’s governance.

Party leader Kamiya Sohei ruled out joining the ruling coalition for now, citing concerns of being overshadowed due to their limited strength.

Implications of the Election Results

Though the upper house elections do not directly force a government change, they do place significant political pressure on PM Ishiba. His government is already weakened and now faces critical tariff negotiations with the U.S., with a looming deadline of August 1 to avoid crippling trade sanctions.

Ishiba acknowledged the setback, calling it a “harsh result”, but reaffirmed his commitment to stay in office and navigate Japan through this volatile period.

Leadership Crisis in the LDP?

If Ishiba is pushed out, no clear successor has yet emerged. This uncertainty could deepen Japan’s political instability at a time when strategic negotiations with global powers and economic recovery post-COVID are paramount.

Japan’s 2025 upper house election represents a turning point in the country’s political dynamics. The ruling coalition’s failure to maintain its majority, combined with the rise of populist forces and deepening party fractures, could reshape the direction of Japanese governance. All eyes are now on Prime Minister Ishiba, as he navigates this crisis with both domestic discontent and international pressure closing in.