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The Indian stock market opened lower on Friday, October 17, 2025, but quickly recovered as optimism returned to the trading floor. After an early dip—when the Sensex fell 261.58 points to 83,206.08 and the Nifty slipped 76.7 points to 25,508.60—both benchmark indices reversed course, turning positive by mid-session.

By late morning, the BSE Sensex was trading 151.89 points higher at 83,625.05, while the NSE Nifty edged 31.60 points up at 25,617.30, signaling a steady recovery and renewed investor confidence.

Sectoral Movers: Paints and Automobiles Lead, IT Faces Pressure

Among the Sensex constituents, several blue-chip firms fueled the rally. Asian Paints, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharat Electronics, Bharti Airtel, and Titan were the top gainers, lending strength to the market rebound.

However, not all sectors shared the same momentum. Eternal Ltd. slipped over 2% following its quarterly earnings release, while IT majors—HCL Tech, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, and **Power Grid—**faced selling pressure as global tech sentiment remained cautious.

Market Drivers: FII Inflows and Optimism on Rate Cuts

The recovery was supported by renewed Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) activity, with data showing net equity purchases worth ₹997.29 crore on Thursday, October 16, 2025. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also contributed strongly, investing ₹4,076.20 crore in equities.

Market experts attribute this positive momentum to multiple global and domestic cues. Prashanth Tapse, Senior Vice President (Research) at Mehta Equities Ltd, noted,

“A turnaround in FII inflows, expectations of Fed rate cuts, the IMF’s upward revision of India’s FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.6%, and crude prices staying weak near $57.35 a barrel have lifted sentiment.”

The IMF’s revised outlook, coupled with easing oil prices, provided a supportive backdrop for equities, indicating potential for steady growth in the upcoming quarters.

Snapshot of the Global Market

Asian market cues were mixed. South Korea’s Kospi traded in positive territory, reflecting investor resilience in the region, while Japan’s Nikkei 225, Shanghai’s SSE Composite, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indices slipped amid cautious global trade sentiment.

In contrast, U.S. markets ended lower on Thursday, influenced by continued concerns over inflation data and policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, Brent crude eased slightly by 0.25% to $60.94 per barrel, offering relief to energy-importing nations like India.

Market Performance Recap

On Thursday, October 16, 2025, Indian markets had closed on a strong note, with the Sensex surging 862.23 points (1.04%) to 83,467.66 and the Nifty rising 261.75 points (1.03%) to 25,585.30. The recovery on Friday builds upon that momentum, showing that investor sentiment continues to be buoyed by improving macroeconomic conditions and optimism surrounding central bank policies.

So

As the week concludes, investors are watching for further clarity from the U.S. Federal Reserve, global inflation trends, and domestic earnings reports. The consistent FII inflows, stable crude prices, and strong economic forecasts suggest that the Indian equity markets could maintain their resilience, though short-term volatility may persist amid global uncertainty.

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As we enter 2024, the market has seen a 7% gain in December, an 18% return in the last two months, a 46% return in 2023, and a 57% gain in nine months from the low of March.

Over the last 16 years, the NSE midcap index and the 100 stock index, reflecting midcap and large-cap segments, have witnessed negative returns in 12 out of 16 Januarys. Averaging a 2.2% negative return, exceptions include positive years like 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2020. Notably, 2012 showcased a double-digit return after a 25% market fall in 2011.

Examining historical data reveals nuanced market behavior. In 2011, a 17% market decline preceded the positive January of 2012. Similarly, despite a robust election outcome in 2014, 2015 saw a market return of less than 15% in the prior five months. The positive January of 2017 followed a 10% demonetization-led sell-off in 2016, and 2020’s positive start was amidst recovering from the NBFC crisis.

As we step into 2024, the market closed December with a 7% gain, showcasing an 18% return in the last two months, a 46% return in 2023, and an impressive 57% gain in nine months from the March low. While these gains hold significance for traders and momentum enthusiasts, long-term investors may view them as short-term fluctuations.

Decent macro-economic fundamentals, an anticipation of lower global interest rates, and reduced election risk post BJP’s strong performance in recent state elections contribute to positive factors. While January historically presents challenges, the current positive indicators suggest the market may defy seasonal trends.

The key lies in balancing short-term considerations with a long-term perspective as we embark on the new year.

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