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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has once again rewritten history. On October 5, 2025, the world’s largest cryptocurrency crossed the $1,25,000 mark, setting a new record amid rising investor demand during the ongoing US government shutdown. According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin touched $1,25,689, surpassing its previous peak of $1,24,500 from August 2025.

At 1:10 pm on October 5, data from CoinMarketCap showed Bitcoin trading near $1,24,710, with a market capitalization of $2.48 trillion.

Investors Turn to Bitcoin Amid US Shutdown

The current rally comes as investors seek safe havens amid economic uncertainty in the United States. The government shutdown has prompted a capital shift away from traditional assets and toward cryptocurrencies.

Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, noted that “the shutdown matters,” highlighting that the political and economic instability in Washington has amplified Bitcoin’s role as a hedge asset.

Kendrick also attributed part of the rally to a pro-crypto stance under Donald Trump’s administration, which has fostered growing confidence among digital asset investors.

ETF Inflows and Market Sentiment Fuel Momentum

Beyond macroeconomic factors, institutional participation is playing a major role in Bitcoin’s latest ascent. According to CoinMarketCap, exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows reached $3.24 billion last week alone, with consistent buying pressure reducing available supply.

This sustained demand from ETFs has strengthened Bitcoin’s position as “digital gold,” with its market cap now rivaling that of silver. Analysts suggest that ETF-driven inflows have created upward momentum that could push prices toward $1,35,000, though some caution that such levels may trigger short-term corrections.

Declining Trade Volumes Indicate Long-Term Holding

Interestingly, despite soaring prices, Bitcoin trade volumes fell nearly 29% from the previous day to $57.94 billion, signaling that most investors are holding rather than selling. This long-term holding behavior supports the narrative that Bitcoin is maturing as a stable asset class rather than a speculative vehicle.

Support from Broader Financial Markets

Stock markets have also shown resilience, indirectly aiding Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Optimism surrounding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in October has added to the bullish sentiment. Lower interest rates typically favor high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies, as liquidity increases and borrowing costs decline.

Ethereum, Tether, Binance, and XRP Also Rise

Bitcoin’s rally has lifted the broader crypto market. Key altcoins followed the upward trend:

  • Ethereum (ETH): Up 0.49% to $4,584.19, market cap $553.9 billion
  • XRP: Gained 0.61% to $3.05, market cap $182.69 billion
  • Tether (USDT): Slight rise of 0.01% to $1, market cap $177.0 billion
  • Binance Coin (BNB): Up 0.43% to $1,175.34, market cap $163.56 billion

The synchronized growth across leading tokens underscores renewed investor enthusiasm for the crypto sector.

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Sensex , Nifty

Indian equity markets ended lower on Tuesday, September 30, 2025, marking the eighth consecutive day of losses. Persistent foreign fund withdrawals and caution before the Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming interest rate announcement weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

Volatility Dominates the Trading Day

The BSE Sensex gave up early gains and closed 97.32 points, or 0.12%, lower at 80,267.62. During the session, it touched an intraday high of 80,677.82 and a low of 80,201.15. Over the past eight sessions, the benchmark has slipped by 2,746.34 points, translating into a decline of 3.30%. The NSE Nifty also ended in the red, down 23.80 points or 0.10% at 24,611.10.

Sectoral Performance: Metals and Banks Resist Pressure

While realty and consumer durables shares faced notable selling pressure, select metal and banking counters showed resilience. Analysts noted that investors largely stayed on the sidelines, waiting for clarity from the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee, which began deliberations on Monday.

Top Gainers and Losers

Among the Sensex constituents, ITC, Bharti Airtel, Trent, Bajaj Finserv, Titan, and Reliance Industries were the major drags on the index. On the other hand, UltraTech Cement, Adani Ports, Tata Motors, Bharat Electronics, Bajaj Finance, and Hindustan Unilever managed to end the session with gains, offering some support to the benchmarks.

Global Market Sentiment

Asian markets offered mixed signals. Shanghai’s SSE Composite Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed higher, while South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei 225 ended in negative territory. European stocks traded on a mixed note in early hours, whereas U.S. markets posted gains in the previous session.

Fund Flow Dynamics

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their selling streak, offloading equities worth ₹2,831.59 crore on Monday. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) stepped in with net purchases of ₹3,845.87 crore, preventing deeper losses for the Indian markets.

Oil Prices in Focus

In the commodities market, global oil benchmark Brent crude eased 1% to $67.29 a barrel. Analysts highlighted that softer crude prices may provide relief to India’s import bill and inflation outlook, but investor attention remains firmly on the RBI’s policy stance.

All Eyes on the RBI

The outcome of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, due on Wednesday, will set the near-term direction for the markets. With inflationary pressures still elevated and growth concerns lingering, investors are bracing for either a cautious pause or a calibrated hike.

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Stock Market

The Indian equity markets witnessed yet another day of weakness on September 25, closing lower for the fifth consecutive session—the longest losing streak in more than six months. A mix of foreign fund outflows, weakness in IT stocks, and global uncertainty weighed heavily on sentiment.

At closing, the Sensex dropped 520.64 points, or 0.64 percent, to end at 81,194.99, while the Nifty slipped 152.10 points, or 0.61 percent, to 24,904.80. In the broader market, 1,270 stocks advanced, 2,501 declined, and 111 remained unchanged, reflecting the bearish undertone.

Key Drivers of the Decline

The selloff was led by IT, realty, and auto stocks, though metal stocks offered some resilience. Market experts pointed to three factors behind the downtrend: sustained selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), a rupee hovering at record lows, and renewed pressure on IT earnings due to the U.S. H-1B visa fee hike.

The Nifty IT index alone has fallen over 6 percent this week, with frontline names such as Infosys, TCS, Wipro, and HCL Tech dragging the sector down. Adding to investor concerns, the India VIX surged nearly 9 percent over the past five sessions, signaling rising nervousness in the market.

Expert Insights on the Current Phase

According to Hariprasad K, Founder of Livelong Wealth, “Persistent FII outflows coupled with global uncertainties are weighing on the Indian market. The IT sector is especially vulnerable due to its dependence on U.S. policies.”

On the other hand, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit, sees this as a buying opportunity for patient investors. He highlighted that India’s structural reforms and favorable interest rate environment could attract foreign money back in the future. “This is the right time for investors to continue accumulating high-quality stocks. Patience is the key,” he said.

Technical View and Support Levels

Analysts suggest that the Nifty’s broader uptrend has hit a pause, with a visible formation of lower highs on the daily chart. The 25,000 mark now stands as a crucial support zone for maintaining the bullish structure.

Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities explained, “While call writers are building positions aggressively at current levels, put writers are stepping back and shifting to lower strikes, pointing to a possible consolidation phase.”

What Lies Ahead for Investors

Despite the ongoing weakness, many experts believe that the correction is healthy in the long run, as it allows valuations to normalize. With reforms in place and consumption-driven growth on the horizon, the Indian market still offers strong fundamentals. For now, caution and selective accumulation appear to be the best approach.

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Sensex and Nifty

Market Slips for Fourth Consecutive Day

Benchmark indices continued their downward trend on Wednesday, September 24, 2025, as investors booked profits in banking, auto, and capital goods shares. The BSE Sensex fell 386.47 points, or 0.47%, to close at 81,715.63, while the NSE Nifty ended 112.60 points lower at 25,056.90. This marks the fourth straight day of declines, with both indices losing over 1.4% in this period.

Key Factors Behind the Decline

Analysts point to a mix of domestic and global triggers weighing on investor sentiment. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth ₹3,551.19 crore on September 23, a major drag on the markets. Concerns about higher H-1B visa fees and weaker IT sector outlook further dampened buying interest. Additionally, a softer Rupee, firm crude oil prices, and lingering global uncertainties added to the cautious tone.

Sectoral Performance

Losses were widespread across key sectors. Realty stocks bore the steepest fall at 2.47%, followed by utilities, capital goods, services, power, and auto, each shedding over 1%. FMCG was the lone bright spot, ending in positive territory as investors sought safer bets amid market volatility. Midcap and small-cap indices also mirrored the weakness, dropping 0.85% and 0.50% respectively.

Major Movers on the Sensex

Among the laggards were Tata Motors, Bharat Electronics, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, ICICI Bank, TCS, and Axis Bank. On the upside, Power Grid, Hindustan Unilever, NTPC, and HCL Tech provided some relief with modest gains.

Global Market Influence

Indian equities also tracked mixed global cues. While South Korea’s Kospi ended lower, indices in Japan, China, and Hong Kong registered gains. European markets opened weaker, and U.S. equities had closed in the red on September 23, further shaping a risk-off sentiment in emerging markets like India.

Currency and Commodity Watch

The Rupee recovered from early weakness to end flat at 88.72 against the U.S. dollar after hitting an intraday low of 88.80. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices edged higher by 0.44% to settle at $67.93 per barrel, adding pressure on India’s inflationary outlook.

Outlook Ahead

With quarterly earnings season around the corner and global economic uncertainties lingering, analysts expect markets to remain volatile. Investors are likely to stay cautious, recalibrating portfolios while keeping an eye on foreign flows, crude price movements, and U.S. policy developments.

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India Economy

India’s Services Sector Hits Record Growth in August

India’s services sector witnessed its sharpest expansion in 15 years during August 2025, marking a remarkable phase of economic momentum. The HSBC India Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, surged to 62.9 from 60.5 in July. While slightly lower than the preliminary estimate of 65.6, this reading firmly signals robust growth, far above the neutral 50.0 threshold.

Drivers of Growth: New Orders and Global Demand

The surge was largely fueled by a sharp rise in new business. Domestic demand remained strong, while international demand also picked up, with export orders climbing at the fastest pace in 14 months. This dual boost reflected India’s strengthening position in global services markets, with IT, finance, and consulting sectors leading the momentum.

Inflation Concerns Resurface

However, rapid expansion brought with it renewed price pressures. Input costs rose at the steepest pace in nine months, while service providers passed these costs on to consumers at the fastest rate since July 2012. Output price inflation has reached worrying levels, raising concerns that India’s broader inflation, which hit an eight-year low of 1.55% in July, may now reverse course.

Business Confidence on the Rise

Despite inflation challenges, optimism among service firms improved to a three-month high. Companies expressed confidence in future demand, supported by expansion plans, advertising investments, and expectations of sustained client activity. Still, hiring growth remained modest, suggesting that businesses are cautious about expanding their workforce amid rising cost pressures.

Composite PMI Highlights Broad-Based Growth

The economic surge was not limited to services alone. The Composite PMI, which accounts for both manufacturing and services activity, rose to 63.2 in August — its highest in 17 years. This indicates that India’s economic momentum is well-rounded, supported by both domestic consumption and international business opportunities.

External Risks to Watch

Amid this optimism, external risks loom large. The U.S. government’s recently imposed 50% tariff on Indian goods could dampen future growth prospects, particularly if trade tensions escalate. Balancing domestic demand with global headwinds will be critical for sustaining momentum in the coming quarters.

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Stock Market

Small-Cap Selloff Deepens Amid Tariff Tensions and Market Volatility

The Indian equity market closed the week on a cautious note as persistent US tariff concerns and sustained foreign investor selling dragged indices lower. The BSE Small-cap index slipped nearly 2%, with more than 40 counters recording double-digit declines ranging from 10% to 24%.

Heavy losses were seen in PG Electroplast, Kitex Garments, Unichem Laboratories, Morepen Laboratories, Advait Energy Transitions, KR Rail Engineering, Faze Three, and Advanced Enzyme Technologies. The selloff marked the third straight week of weakness in broader markets, underlining the fragility of investor confidence.

Broader Indices Remain Under Pressure

For the week, the BSE Sensex dropped 742.12 points or 0.92% to settle at 79,857.79, while the Nifty50 fell 202.05 points or 0.82% to close at 24,363.30. Large-cap and mid-cap indices each shed about 1%, trailing their small-cap counterparts’ sharper declines.

Sectoral performance was mixed, with Nifty Pharma, Realty, FMCG, and Healthcare losing around 2% each. In contrast, PSU Bank, media, and metal stocks managed modest gains of 0.5% to 1.5%.

FII Selling Continues, DIIs Offer Support

Foreign Institutional Investors extended their selling streak into a sixth consecutive week, offloading equities worth ₹10,652.47 crore during the week. So far in August, FIIs have sold shares worth ₹14,018.87 crore.

On the other side, Domestic Institutional Investors remained steady buyers for the 16th straight week, purchasing equities worth ₹33,608.66 crore during the week and ₹36,795.52 crore so far this month. This consistent domestic inflow provided some cushion against steeper market losses.

Global Trade Tensions Cloud Outlook

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, noted that the market’s consolidation since July reflects the drag from trade-related challenges and underwhelming earnings. “Persistent FII selling, particularly in pharma stocks with significant US exposure, highlights the cautious sentiment. The rupee’s depreciation has also added to the pressure,” he said.

Nair added that optimism from the RBI’s reaffirmation of macroeconomic stability and easing inflation trends has softened the downside, but risks from global trade frictions and sustained foreign outflows remain elevated.

Winners Amid the Weakness

While the broader tone was negative, a handful of stocks bucked the trend. Sarda Energy and Minerals, Timex Group India, Sanghvi Movers, Zinka Logistics Solutions, Centum Electronics, KRBL, Baazar Style Retail, Godfrey Phillips India, and Entertainment Network India posted gains of 12% to 21%, reflecting selective buying in niche segments.

Looking Ahead

The market’s near-term direction will hinge on upcoming inflation data from India and the US, alongside any fresh developments in global trade relations. Analysts suggest investors focus on domestic consumption-driven sectors, which may be better equipped to ride out short-term volatility.

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India's Russian Oil Imports

Washington Once Backed Indian Oil Buys from Russia

At the height of the Ukraine war’s impact on global energy markets, the United States quietly encouraged India to keep buying discounted Russian oil—within a price cap—to stabilize soaring prices. This policy wasn’t just tolerated; it was a deliberate part of Washington’s design, as admitted by then-US Ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti.

Speaking at a 2024 conference, Garcetti confirmed that India’s actions aligned perfectly with US goals: “They bought Russian oil because we wanted somebody to buy Russian oil at a price cap… they fulfilled that.” His remarks, now resurfacing, expose a deeper contradiction in US foreign policy—especially in light of recent threats from US President Donald Trump.

A Pattern of Silent Approval

Garcetti’s remarks weren’t an isolated admission. In 2022, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US had “no problem” with India purchasing Russian oil—even above the G7 price cap—provided India didn’t use Western shipping or insurance services. Yellen’s logic was simple: India’s demand helped suppress global oil prices while limiting Russia’s profits.

In 2024, Assistant Secretary Geoffrey Pyatt echoed the same sentiment, saying India’s oil strategy served dual purposes: affordable domestic fuel and international price stability.

India’s Strategy: Energy Security First

As Western nations turned away from Russian crude, India became its top customer. Between January and June 2025, Indian refiners imported nearly 1.75 million barrels per day—making up over 35% of the country’s total oil imports.

This pivot not only shielded India from inflation and high fuel costs but also reshaped global energy flows. The move saved India billions, even as it gave Moscow a vital export market cut off from Europe.

Trump’s Tariff Threats: A Shift in Tone

Fast forward to 2025, and President Donald Trump’s stance is drastically different. Citing India’s continued oil purchases from Russia, Trump recently threatened steep tariff hikes on Indian exports. He claimed India was profiting off Russian oil while ignoring the Ukraine conflict and vowed to “substantially raise” tariffs.

Trump’s ultimatum followed his call for Moscow to advance peace talks or face renewed sanctions. The timing signals a strategic pressure campaign—less about Ukraine and more about forcing India to pivot towards American energy.

India Pushes Back

India’s Ministry of External Affairs didn’t hold back. Calling Trump’s comments “unjustified and unreasonable,” New Delhi pledged to defend its economic interests.

India argued that its Russian oil trade was born of necessity—traditional suppliers were rerouted to Europe after the war began. Far from ignoring the war, India maintained its stance as a neutral actor safeguarding national interest amid shifting global power equations.

What Trump Really Wants: Energy Dominance

Behind Trump’s tough talk lies a clear motive—boosting US energy exports. Since he took office in January, American oil shipments to India have jumped over 50%. The Energy Information Administration confirms US crude now makes up 8% of India’s oil basket.

Trump’s administration has aggressively supported the fossil fuel sector, offering $18 billion in new incentives. India is seen not just as a trade partner, but a key energy buyer. The tariff threats are less about punishing behavior and more about securing market share.

An Unfolding Energy Chess Game

The contradictions in the US stance—first encouraging India’s Russian oil trade, now punishing it—reflect the geopolitical chessboard beneath the headlines. For India, balancing affordability, energy security, and diplomatic neutrality remains key. For the US, it’s about reasserting control in an increasingly multipolar oil economy.

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India’s largest IT services giant, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), has announced a significant restructuring move that will affect over 12,000 employees globally in the financial year 2026. This accounts for 2% of its workforce, primarily targeting middle and senior-level positions. While this decision has sparked reactions across social media, TCS emphasizes that the transition is part of a broader plan to align with emerging technologies and market demands — not just a knee-jerk reaction to AI trends.

The Strategic Shift Behind the Layoffs

The announcement comes amid a backdrop of delayed client decision-making, shifting business models, and aggressive AI deployment. According to CEO K Krithivasan, this move is intended to future-proof the organization:

“This is not because of AI but to address skills for the future,” Krithivasan said, clarifying that the layoffs are not a result of reduced workforce needs but rather a redeployment failure and misalignment of skills with future technological demands.

TCS has been investing heavily in employee upskilling, but some roles were identified as no longer feasible to redeploy.

AI and Automation: The Invisible Force

While AI may not be the direct cause, it is certainly the underlying driver reshaping the IT landscape. The rapid integration of artificial intelligence, automation, and cloud-based services is pushing companies like TCS to rethink traditional workforce structures.

Krithivasan pointed out that TCS is not reducing staff due to AI efficiency alone but is proactively preparing for a future that demands agility, tech expertise, and role flexibility.

Impact on the Indian IT Ecosystem

The decision by TCS, a bellwether for India’s tech sector, is raising concerns across the industry:

  • Market experts view this as a bellwether for broader restructuring across other major IT firms.
  • Employees are concerned about redeployment prospects and job security.
  • Public sentiment, especially on platforms like Reddit and X (formerly Twitter), is mixed — ranging from fear of an AI-driven future to criticism of internal talent mismanagement.

A Reddit user remarked:

“The laid-back approach is not of engineers but of the management. Talents are being wasted in non-core roles like support desks.”

What TCS Is Saying About the Transition

TCS has maintained that this transition will not affect service delivery to its clients. The company is committed to conducting the layoffs with care and responsibility. Retraining programs and internal redeployments continue where feasible.

Yet, the core of the issue remains — technology is evolving faster than talent pipelines can adapt, and even top-tier companies like TCS are feeling the pressure.

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India's Mobile Exports

In a remarkable transformation, India’s mobile phone exports rose from ₹1,500 crore in 2014–15 to a staggering ₹2 lakh crore in 2024–25, marking a 127-fold increase, according to Parliament data disclosed by Electronic & IT Minister of State Jitin Prasada.

How the PLI Scheme Power-Pumped Growth

The Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme for Large Scale Electronics Manufacturing (LSEM) has proven instrumental. As of June 2025, it had:

  • Drawn investments totaling ₹12,390 crore
  • Generated ₹844,752 crore in production
  • Contributed ₹465,809 crore in exports
  • Created over 1.30 lakh direct jobs

This momentum has reshaped India’s standing in global electronics.

Shift from Importer to Exporter

In 2014–15, India imported 75% of domestic mobile demand. That figure has plummeted to just 0.02%, as domestic manufacturing has ramped up dramatically. Today, India ranks as the second-largest mobile phone manufacturer globally.

Expanding the Scheme: PLI 2.0 & FDI Inflows

A new wave of incentives under PLI Scheme 2.0, focused on IT hardware, has already attracted ₹717 crore in investment, generated ₹12,196 crore in production, and created 5,056 direct jobs.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in electronics manufacturing has surged to USD 4.07 billion since 2020–21, with PLI beneficiaries accounting for USD 2.80 billion of that inflow.

The Strategic Upshot

  • India’s export boom reinforces its position as a global electronics manufacturing hub.
  • The PLI models are delivering impact, driving production, employment, and exports.
  • Reducing import dependence and enhancing domestic capabilities across hardware sectors.

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Nifty , Sensex

The Indian stock market has witnessed a sharp correction, with the Sensex falling over 1,400 points in just four trading sessions. The benchmark Nifty 50 also slipped below the critical 25,100 mark, raising investor concerns about market stability. This decline, though, contrasts with gains in the mid- and small-cap segments. What’s driving this downturn? Here’s a detailed analysis of the key factors behind the current market weakness.

1. Trade War Fears and US Tariff Moves
The resurgence of global trade tensions is weighing heavily on Indian markets. US President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance on tariffs—imposing 35% on Canadian imports and 30% on goods from Mexico and the European Union—has stoked fears of a prolonged trade war.
Although reports suggest an interim trade deal with India could lower proposed tariffs to below 20%, the uncertainty continues to pressure market sentiment.
“The market is expecting a US-India trade deal soon… Any disappointment on this front can drag the market further down,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.

2. Shift in Investor Focus to Mid and Small-Caps
While large-cap indices have declined, the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices posted gains of 0.67% and 0.57% respectively.
Experts attribute this divergence to a surge in retail investor interest in mid- and small-cap stocks, driven by their potential for stronger earnings recovery.
“With over 4,000 small- and mid-cap stocks, investors have a wide universe to explore,” noted G. Chokkalingam of Equinomics.
India’s retail investor base now exceeds 22 crore, with nearly six lakh new investors added each week—fueling sustained demand in the broader markets.

3. Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) Outflows
After four consecutive months of net buying, foreign portfolio investors have turned sellers in July.
So far, FPIs have sold over ₹10,000 crore worth of Indian equities, primarily affecting large-cap stocks where they hold significant ownership.
This capital flight is contributing to the sustained pressure on benchmark indices.

4. Stretched Valuations and Earnings Uncertainty
With Q1 earnings around the corner, concerns over high valuations are becoming more pronounced.
The Nifty 50’s price-to-earnings ratio currently stands at 22.6—above its one-year average of 22.2—indicating limited room for error in earnings performance.
Material earnings recovery is expected only after the September quarter, leaving markets vulnerable to short-term volatility.

5. Technical Indicators Signal Continued Weakness
Technical analysis suggests that the benchmarks may see further downside unless key levels are breached.
“As long as the market remains below 25,350/83,200, the sentiment will remain weak,” said Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities.
LKP Securities’ Rupak De added that the Nifty 50’s intraday slip towards 25,000 puts it close to its 50-day moving average, with strong support at 24,900–24,950. Failure to hold this level could prompt deeper corrections towards 24,800 or even 24,700.

The recent decline in India’s stock market is the result of multiple interlinked factors—global trade concerns, capital outflows, valuation fears, and technical resistance levels. However, resilience in mid- and small-cap segments and retail investor optimism offer a silver lining. For now, market participants must brace for continued volatility while watching global developments and domestic earnings closely.

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