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Stock Market

The Indian equity markets witnessed yet another day of weakness on September 25, closing lower for the fifth consecutive session—the longest losing streak in more than six months. A mix of foreign fund outflows, weakness in IT stocks, and global uncertainty weighed heavily on sentiment.

At closing, the Sensex dropped 520.64 points, or 0.64 percent, to end at 81,194.99, while the Nifty slipped 152.10 points, or 0.61 percent, to 24,904.80. In the broader market, 1,270 stocks advanced, 2,501 declined, and 111 remained unchanged, reflecting the bearish undertone.

Key Drivers of the Decline

The selloff was led by IT, realty, and auto stocks, though metal stocks offered some resilience. Market experts pointed to three factors behind the downtrend: sustained selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), a rupee hovering at record lows, and renewed pressure on IT earnings due to the U.S. H-1B visa fee hike.

The Nifty IT index alone has fallen over 6 percent this week, with frontline names such as Infosys, TCS, Wipro, and HCL Tech dragging the sector down. Adding to investor concerns, the India VIX surged nearly 9 percent over the past five sessions, signaling rising nervousness in the market.

Expert Insights on the Current Phase

According to Hariprasad K, Founder of Livelong Wealth, “Persistent FII outflows coupled with global uncertainties are weighing on the Indian market. The IT sector is especially vulnerable due to its dependence on U.S. policies.”

On the other hand, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit, sees this as a buying opportunity for patient investors. He highlighted that India’s structural reforms and favorable interest rate environment could attract foreign money back in the future. “This is the right time for investors to continue accumulating high-quality stocks. Patience is the key,” he said.

Technical View and Support Levels

Analysts suggest that the Nifty’s broader uptrend has hit a pause, with a visible formation of lower highs on the daily chart. The 25,000 mark now stands as a crucial support zone for maintaining the bullish structure.

Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities explained, “While call writers are building positions aggressively at current levels, put writers are stepping back and shifting to lower strikes, pointing to a possible consolidation phase.”

What Lies Ahead for Investors

Despite the ongoing weakness, many experts believe that the correction is healthy in the long run, as it allows valuations to normalize. With reforms in place and consumption-driven growth on the horizon, the Indian market still offers strong fundamentals. For now, caution and selective accumulation appear to be the best approach.

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Sensex and Nifty

Market Slips for Fourth Consecutive Day

Benchmark indices continued their downward trend on Wednesday, September 24, 2025, as investors booked profits in banking, auto, and capital goods shares. The BSE Sensex fell 386.47 points, or 0.47%, to close at 81,715.63, while the NSE Nifty ended 112.60 points lower at 25,056.90. This marks the fourth straight day of declines, with both indices losing over 1.4% in this period.

Key Factors Behind the Decline

Analysts point to a mix of domestic and global triggers weighing on investor sentiment. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth ₹3,551.19 crore on September 23, a major drag on the markets. Concerns about higher H-1B visa fees and weaker IT sector outlook further dampened buying interest. Additionally, a softer Rupee, firm crude oil prices, and lingering global uncertainties added to the cautious tone.

Sectoral Performance

Losses were widespread across key sectors. Realty stocks bore the steepest fall at 2.47%, followed by utilities, capital goods, services, power, and auto, each shedding over 1%. FMCG was the lone bright spot, ending in positive territory as investors sought safer bets amid market volatility. Midcap and small-cap indices also mirrored the weakness, dropping 0.85% and 0.50% respectively.

Major Movers on the Sensex

Among the laggards were Tata Motors, Bharat Electronics, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, ICICI Bank, TCS, and Axis Bank. On the upside, Power Grid, Hindustan Unilever, NTPC, and HCL Tech provided some relief with modest gains.

Global Market Influence

Indian equities also tracked mixed global cues. While South Korea’s Kospi ended lower, indices in Japan, China, and Hong Kong registered gains. European markets opened weaker, and U.S. equities had closed in the red on September 23, further shaping a risk-off sentiment in emerging markets like India.

Currency and Commodity Watch

The Rupee recovered from early weakness to end flat at 88.72 against the U.S. dollar after hitting an intraday low of 88.80. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices edged higher by 0.44% to settle at $67.93 per barrel, adding pressure on India’s inflationary outlook.

Outlook Ahead

With quarterly earnings season around the corner and global economic uncertainties lingering, analysts expect markets to remain volatile. Investors are likely to stay cautious, recalibrating portfolios while keeping an eye on foreign flows, crude price movements, and U.S. policy developments.

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India Economy

India’s Services Sector Hits Record Growth in August

India’s services sector witnessed its sharpest expansion in 15 years during August 2025, marking a remarkable phase of economic momentum. The HSBC India Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, surged to 62.9 from 60.5 in July. While slightly lower than the preliminary estimate of 65.6, this reading firmly signals robust growth, far above the neutral 50.0 threshold.

Drivers of Growth: New Orders and Global Demand

The surge was largely fueled by a sharp rise in new business. Domestic demand remained strong, while international demand also picked up, with export orders climbing at the fastest pace in 14 months. This dual boost reflected India’s strengthening position in global services markets, with IT, finance, and consulting sectors leading the momentum.

Inflation Concerns Resurface

However, rapid expansion brought with it renewed price pressures. Input costs rose at the steepest pace in nine months, while service providers passed these costs on to consumers at the fastest rate since July 2012. Output price inflation has reached worrying levels, raising concerns that India’s broader inflation, which hit an eight-year low of 1.55% in July, may now reverse course.

Business Confidence on the Rise

Despite inflation challenges, optimism among service firms improved to a three-month high. Companies expressed confidence in future demand, supported by expansion plans, advertising investments, and expectations of sustained client activity. Still, hiring growth remained modest, suggesting that businesses are cautious about expanding their workforce amid rising cost pressures.

Composite PMI Highlights Broad-Based Growth

The economic surge was not limited to services alone. The Composite PMI, which accounts for both manufacturing and services activity, rose to 63.2 in August — its highest in 17 years. This indicates that India’s economic momentum is well-rounded, supported by both domestic consumption and international business opportunities.

External Risks to Watch

Amid this optimism, external risks loom large. The U.S. government’s recently imposed 50% tariff on Indian goods could dampen future growth prospects, particularly if trade tensions escalate. Balancing domestic demand with global headwinds will be critical for sustaining momentum in the coming quarters.

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Stock Market

Small-Cap Selloff Deepens Amid Tariff Tensions and Market Volatility

The Indian equity market closed the week on a cautious note as persistent US tariff concerns and sustained foreign investor selling dragged indices lower. The BSE Small-cap index slipped nearly 2%, with more than 40 counters recording double-digit declines ranging from 10% to 24%.

Heavy losses were seen in PG Electroplast, Kitex Garments, Unichem Laboratories, Morepen Laboratories, Advait Energy Transitions, KR Rail Engineering, Faze Three, and Advanced Enzyme Technologies. The selloff marked the third straight week of weakness in broader markets, underlining the fragility of investor confidence.

Broader Indices Remain Under Pressure

For the week, the BSE Sensex dropped 742.12 points or 0.92% to settle at 79,857.79, while the Nifty50 fell 202.05 points or 0.82% to close at 24,363.30. Large-cap and mid-cap indices each shed about 1%, trailing their small-cap counterparts’ sharper declines.

Sectoral performance was mixed, with Nifty Pharma, Realty, FMCG, and Healthcare losing around 2% each. In contrast, PSU Bank, media, and metal stocks managed modest gains of 0.5% to 1.5%.

FII Selling Continues, DIIs Offer Support

Foreign Institutional Investors extended their selling streak into a sixth consecutive week, offloading equities worth ₹10,652.47 crore during the week. So far in August, FIIs have sold shares worth ₹14,018.87 crore.

On the other side, Domestic Institutional Investors remained steady buyers for the 16th straight week, purchasing equities worth ₹33,608.66 crore during the week and ₹36,795.52 crore so far this month. This consistent domestic inflow provided some cushion against steeper market losses.

Global Trade Tensions Cloud Outlook

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, noted that the market’s consolidation since July reflects the drag from trade-related challenges and underwhelming earnings. “Persistent FII selling, particularly in pharma stocks with significant US exposure, highlights the cautious sentiment. The rupee’s depreciation has also added to the pressure,” he said.

Nair added that optimism from the RBI’s reaffirmation of macroeconomic stability and easing inflation trends has softened the downside, but risks from global trade frictions and sustained foreign outflows remain elevated.

Winners Amid the Weakness

While the broader tone was negative, a handful of stocks bucked the trend. Sarda Energy and Minerals, Timex Group India, Sanghvi Movers, Zinka Logistics Solutions, Centum Electronics, KRBL, Baazar Style Retail, Godfrey Phillips India, and Entertainment Network India posted gains of 12% to 21%, reflecting selective buying in niche segments.

Looking Ahead

The market’s near-term direction will hinge on upcoming inflation data from India and the US, alongside any fresh developments in global trade relations. Analysts suggest investors focus on domestic consumption-driven sectors, which may be better equipped to ride out short-term volatility.

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India's Russian Oil Imports

Washington Once Backed Indian Oil Buys from Russia

At the height of the Ukraine war’s impact on global energy markets, the United States quietly encouraged India to keep buying discounted Russian oil—within a price cap—to stabilize soaring prices. This policy wasn’t just tolerated; it was a deliberate part of Washington’s design, as admitted by then-US Ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti.

Speaking at a 2024 conference, Garcetti confirmed that India’s actions aligned perfectly with US goals: “They bought Russian oil because we wanted somebody to buy Russian oil at a price cap… they fulfilled that.” His remarks, now resurfacing, expose a deeper contradiction in US foreign policy—especially in light of recent threats from US President Donald Trump.

A Pattern of Silent Approval

Garcetti’s remarks weren’t an isolated admission. In 2022, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US had “no problem” with India purchasing Russian oil—even above the G7 price cap—provided India didn’t use Western shipping or insurance services. Yellen’s logic was simple: India’s demand helped suppress global oil prices while limiting Russia’s profits.

In 2024, Assistant Secretary Geoffrey Pyatt echoed the same sentiment, saying India’s oil strategy served dual purposes: affordable domestic fuel and international price stability.

India’s Strategy: Energy Security First

As Western nations turned away from Russian crude, India became its top customer. Between January and June 2025, Indian refiners imported nearly 1.75 million barrels per day—making up over 35% of the country’s total oil imports.

This pivot not only shielded India from inflation and high fuel costs but also reshaped global energy flows. The move saved India billions, even as it gave Moscow a vital export market cut off from Europe.

Trump’s Tariff Threats: A Shift in Tone

Fast forward to 2025, and President Donald Trump’s stance is drastically different. Citing India’s continued oil purchases from Russia, Trump recently threatened steep tariff hikes on Indian exports. He claimed India was profiting off Russian oil while ignoring the Ukraine conflict and vowed to “substantially raise” tariffs.

Trump’s ultimatum followed his call for Moscow to advance peace talks or face renewed sanctions. The timing signals a strategic pressure campaign—less about Ukraine and more about forcing India to pivot towards American energy.

India Pushes Back

India’s Ministry of External Affairs didn’t hold back. Calling Trump’s comments “unjustified and unreasonable,” New Delhi pledged to defend its economic interests.

India argued that its Russian oil trade was born of necessity—traditional suppliers were rerouted to Europe after the war began. Far from ignoring the war, India maintained its stance as a neutral actor safeguarding national interest amid shifting global power equations.

What Trump Really Wants: Energy Dominance

Behind Trump’s tough talk lies a clear motive—boosting US energy exports. Since he took office in January, American oil shipments to India have jumped over 50%. The Energy Information Administration confirms US crude now makes up 8% of India’s oil basket.

Trump’s administration has aggressively supported the fossil fuel sector, offering $18 billion in new incentives. India is seen not just as a trade partner, but a key energy buyer. The tariff threats are less about punishing behavior and more about securing market share.

An Unfolding Energy Chess Game

The contradictions in the US stance—first encouraging India’s Russian oil trade, now punishing it—reflect the geopolitical chessboard beneath the headlines. For India, balancing affordability, energy security, and diplomatic neutrality remains key. For the US, it’s about reasserting control in an increasingly multipolar oil economy.

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India’s largest IT services giant, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), has announced a significant restructuring move that will affect over 12,000 employees globally in the financial year 2026. This accounts for 2% of its workforce, primarily targeting middle and senior-level positions. While this decision has sparked reactions across social media, TCS emphasizes that the transition is part of a broader plan to align with emerging technologies and market demands — not just a knee-jerk reaction to AI trends.

The Strategic Shift Behind the Layoffs

The announcement comes amid a backdrop of delayed client decision-making, shifting business models, and aggressive AI deployment. According to CEO K Krithivasan, this move is intended to future-proof the organization:

“This is not because of AI but to address skills for the future,” Krithivasan said, clarifying that the layoffs are not a result of reduced workforce needs but rather a redeployment failure and misalignment of skills with future technological demands.

TCS has been investing heavily in employee upskilling, but some roles were identified as no longer feasible to redeploy.

AI and Automation: The Invisible Force

While AI may not be the direct cause, it is certainly the underlying driver reshaping the IT landscape. The rapid integration of artificial intelligence, automation, and cloud-based services is pushing companies like TCS to rethink traditional workforce structures.

Krithivasan pointed out that TCS is not reducing staff due to AI efficiency alone but is proactively preparing for a future that demands agility, tech expertise, and role flexibility.

Impact on the Indian IT Ecosystem

The decision by TCS, a bellwether for India’s tech sector, is raising concerns across the industry:

  • Market experts view this as a bellwether for broader restructuring across other major IT firms.
  • Employees are concerned about redeployment prospects and job security.
  • Public sentiment, especially on platforms like Reddit and X (formerly Twitter), is mixed — ranging from fear of an AI-driven future to criticism of internal talent mismanagement.

A Reddit user remarked:

“The laid-back approach is not of engineers but of the management. Talents are being wasted in non-core roles like support desks.”

What TCS Is Saying About the Transition

TCS has maintained that this transition will not affect service delivery to its clients. The company is committed to conducting the layoffs with care and responsibility. Retraining programs and internal redeployments continue where feasible.

Yet, the core of the issue remains — technology is evolving faster than talent pipelines can adapt, and even top-tier companies like TCS are feeling the pressure.

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India's Mobile Exports

In a remarkable transformation, India’s mobile phone exports rose from ₹1,500 crore in 2014–15 to a staggering ₹2 lakh crore in 2024–25, marking a 127-fold increase, according to Parliament data disclosed by Electronic & IT Minister of State Jitin Prasada.

How the PLI Scheme Power-Pumped Growth

The Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme for Large Scale Electronics Manufacturing (LSEM) has proven instrumental. As of June 2025, it had:

  • Drawn investments totaling ₹12,390 crore
  • Generated ₹844,752 crore in production
  • Contributed ₹465,809 crore in exports
  • Created over 1.30 lakh direct jobs

This momentum has reshaped India’s standing in global electronics.

Shift from Importer to Exporter

In 2014–15, India imported 75% of domestic mobile demand. That figure has plummeted to just 0.02%, as domestic manufacturing has ramped up dramatically. Today, India ranks as the second-largest mobile phone manufacturer globally.

Expanding the Scheme: PLI 2.0 & FDI Inflows

A new wave of incentives under PLI Scheme 2.0, focused on IT hardware, has already attracted ₹717 crore in investment, generated ₹12,196 crore in production, and created 5,056 direct jobs.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in electronics manufacturing has surged to USD 4.07 billion since 2020–21, with PLI beneficiaries accounting for USD 2.80 billion of that inflow.

The Strategic Upshot

  • India’s export boom reinforces its position as a global electronics manufacturing hub.
  • The PLI models are delivering impact, driving production, employment, and exports.
  • Reducing import dependence and enhancing domestic capabilities across hardware sectors.

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Nifty , Sensex

The Indian stock market has witnessed a sharp correction, with the Sensex falling over 1,400 points in just four trading sessions. The benchmark Nifty 50 also slipped below the critical 25,100 mark, raising investor concerns about market stability. This decline, though, contrasts with gains in the mid- and small-cap segments. What’s driving this downturn? Here’s a detailed analysis of the key factors behind the current market weakness.

1. Trade War Fears and US Tariff Moves
The resurgence of global trade tensions is weighing heavily on Indian markets. US President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance on tariffs—imposing 35% on Canadian imports and 30% on goods from Mexico and the European Union—has stoked fears of a prolonged trade war.
Although reports suggest an interim trade deal with India could lower proposed tariffs to below 20%, the uncertainty continues to pressure market sentiment.
“The market is expecting a US-India trade deal soon… Any disappointment on this front can drag the market further down,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.

2. Shift in Investor Focus to Mid and Small-Caps
While large-cap indices have declined, the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices posted gains of 0.67% and 0.57% respectively.
Experts attribute this divergence to a surge in retail investor interest in mid- and small-cap stocks, driven by their potential for stronger earnings recovery.
“With over 4,000 small- and mid-cap stocks, investors have a wide universe to explore,” noted G. Chokkalingam of Equinomics.
India’s retail investor base now exceeds 22 crore, with nearly six lakh new investors added each week—fueling sustained demand in the broader markets.

3. Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) Outflows
After four consecutive months of net buying, foreign portfolio investors have turned sellers in July.
So far, FPIs have sold over ₹10,000 crore worth of Indian equities, primarily affecting large-cap stocks where they hold significant ownership.
This capital flight is contributing to the sustained pressure on benchmark indices.

4. Stretched Valuations and Earnings Uncertainty
With Q1 earnings around the corner, concerns over high valuations are becoming more pronounced.
The Nifty 50’s price-to-earnings ratio currently stands at 22.6—above its one-year average of 22.2—indicating limited room for error in earnings performance.
Material earnings recovery is expected only after the September quarter, leaving markets vulnerable to short-term volatility.

5. Technical Indicators Signal Continued Weakness
Technical analysis suggests that the benchmarks may see further downside unless key levels are breached.
“As long as the market remains below 25,350/83,200, the sentiment will remain weak,” said Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities.
LKP Securities’ Rupak De added that the Nifty 50’s intraday slip towards 25,000 puts it close to its 50-day moving average, with strong support at 24,900–24,950. Failure to hold this level could prompt deeper corrections towards 24,800 or even 24,700.

The recent decline in India’s stock market is the result of multiple interlinked factors—global trade concerns, capital outflows, valuation fears, and technical resistance levels. However, resilience in mid- and small-cap segments and retail investor optimism offer a silver lining. For now, market participants must brace for continued volatility while watching global developments and domestic earnings closely.

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HDFC Bank shares surged to an all-time high of ₹1997.90 on June 26, buoyed by robust investor demand for the HDB Financial IPO and optimism surrounding the banking sector’s performance in FY2025–26. Analysts suggest that the value unlocking from HDB Financial’s listing and a strong fiscal outlook are key drivers behind the rally.

HDB Financial IPO Spurs Investor Confidence
India’s largest private lender saw its stock rise nearly 1%, extending a three-day gaining streak. This rally coincides with the ongoing IPO of HDFC Bank’s non-banking finance arm, HDB Financial Services, which opened for subscription on June 25.

As of 10:35 AM on June 26, the IPO had garnered a healthy 45% subscription overall, with the non-institutional investor category already at 95% subscription. HDFC Bank is expected to raise around ₹10,000 crore by offloading its stake in HDB Financial via an Offer for Sale (OFS).

“The market seems to view the HDB Financial IPO’s valuation quite favourably,” said market analyst Avinash Goranshkar. “This one-time gain will likely reflect in the April–June quarter, and that’s one reason the stock is up.”

Strategic Value Unlocking and Retained Control
This IPO marks a long-awaited value unlocking from HDB Financial, which analysts and investors had been anticipating since last year. Although ₹10,000 crore may be a small fraction of HDFC Bank’s overall balance sheet, the listing changes the narrative around the bank’s long-term potential.

“HDFC Bank retaining control of HDB Financial means it will now benefit from the market cap uplift that wasn’t reflected earlier,” Goranshkar explained.

The bank’s early investment in HDB has yielded an impressive 1495% return, highlighting the value of the subsidiary now becoming visible in the public domain.

Broader Sectoral Strength in FY26
Beyond HDB Financial’s IPO, HDFC Bank’s share price also reflects growing optimism about the Indian banking sector. With expectations of strong infrastructure investment from both government and private entities, banks are projected to benefit from increased credit demand.

“We are likely to see significant infrastructure investment… This will increase the overall demand for funding from banks,” said Goranshkar.

Recent regulatory measures, including RBI’s interest rate adjustments, have also improved the outlook for non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), further strengthening HDFC Bank’s position given its presence in both banking and NBFC domains.

Conclusion:
The rally in HDFC Bank’s share price underscores investor enthusiasm not just for HDB Financial’s IPO but also for the bank’s strategic positioning and the broader sectoral upswing. With value unlocking, regulatory tailwinds, and credit growth on the horizon, the banking sector—led by giants like HDFC Bank—appears set for a strong FY2025–26.

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The Indian stock markets lit up on Monday as the Sensex surged over 1,000 points to cross the historic 80,000-mark, while the Nifty raced ahead by more than 300 points to touch 24,340. The strong rebound came amid sustained foreign institutional investment and resilient domestic fundamentals, restoring investor confidence after last week’s volatility.

By 12:30 PM, the 30-share BSE Sensex was up significantly, offering a fresh breath of optimism to traders and long-term investors alike.

Reliance, Banks Lead the Charge

Heavyweights such as Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, State Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank, Larsen & Toubro, and NTPC spearheaded the rally. Their robust performances played a major role in pushing the indices into uncharted territory.

On the other hand, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finance, and Nestle found themselves in the laggards’ column, showing a rare underperformance amid the broader market optimism.

The Force Behind the Rally: Foreign Investment Surge

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, attributed the market’s remarkable resilience to continued foreign fund inflows. According to him, relative underperformance in US equities, bonds, and the dollar made Indian markets an attractive proposition for global investors.

Data from the exchanges backs this view. On Friday alone, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) pumped in equities worth Rs 2,952.33 crore, a robust inflow despite geopolitical tensions following a terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir.

Furthermore, FIIs poured in a staggering Rs 17,425 crore into Indian equities last week, bolstered by favorable global conditions and strong domestic economic indicators. This followed a Rs 8,500 crore net investment during the holiday-truncated week ending April 18.

A Sharp Rebound from Friday’s Setback

Friday had seen the markets stumble, with the Sensex dropping 588 points (0.74 percent) to close at 79,212, and the Nifty falling by 207 points (0.86 percent) to end at 24,039. However, Monday’s sharp turnaround has not only wiped out those losses but also set new benchmarks.

Looking Ahead

With foreign investments showing no signs of slowing and domestic growth indicators remaining strong, the mood in Dalal Street appears upbeat. Yet, analysts warn that global volatility and local political developments could inject some uncertainty in the near term.

For now, though, the markets are basking in the glow of a historic milestone, with the Sensex’s climb beyond 80,000 standing as a testament to the growing confidence in India’s economic story.

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