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India oman trade deal

The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Oman officially came into effect today, opening a new chapter in bilateral economic relations and providing expanded market access for Indian exporters.

Announcing the implementation of the agreement, Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said the pact would help create new opportunities for students, artisans, women, farmers, fishermen, and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) by expanding exports, attracting investment, and supporting job creation.

The agreement was signed in December last year during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Muscat.

Strategic Importance Amid Regional Tensions

The trade pact comes into force at a time when geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue to disrupt regional trade routes.

The ongoing conflict involving Iran has affected shipping movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that handles around 20% of global daily oil consumption and approximately 25% of global seaborne oil trade.

Unlike several Gulf states whose shipping routes depend heavily on the Strait of Hormuz, Oman occupies a strategically advantageous position. Much of its coastline lies outside the strait, directly facing the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, allowing key ports to remain operational even during regional disruptions.

According to trade experts, major Omani ports such as Salalah and Duqm can continue functioning as important trade and energy gateways during periods of instability in the Gulf region.

Recent trade data highlights this advantage. While India’s imports from major Gulf economies fell sharply between April 2025 and April 2026, Oman emerged as an exception.

India’s imports from Oman increased by more than 246%, rising from approximately $430 million to nearly $1.5 billion, largely driven by purchases of crude oil and urea. During the same period, India’s exports to Oman declined by only 10.3%, outperforming trends seen elsewhere in the region.

Benefits for Indian Exporters

Under the agreement, Oman will provide zero-duty access on 98.08% of its tariff lines, covering 99.38% of India’s exports to the country.

This marks a significant expansion from the pre-CEPA framework, under which only about 15.3% of Indian exports enjoyed duty-free treatment.

The agreement offers full tariff elimination across several labour-intensive sectors, including:

  • Gems and jewellery
  • Textiles and apparel
  • Leather and footwear
  • Sports goods
  • Plastics
  • Furniture
  • Agricultural products
  • Engineering goods
  • Pharmaceuticals
  • Medical devices
  • Automobiles

India’s exports to Oman were valued at approximately $3.64 billion in FY2026. Major export items included refined petroleum products, naphtha, calcined alumina, iron and steel products, machinery, and rice.

Although many Indian products already entered Oman at relatively low tariff rates, some sectors faced duties as high as 100%. The removal of these tariffs is expected to improve the competitiveness of Indian goods in the Omani market.

However, analysts note that export growth may be moderated by Oman’s relatively small domestic market, with a population of around 5.5 million and a GDP of approximately $110 billion.

Benefits for Oman

In return, India has agreed to eliminate or reduce tariffs on around 78% of its tariff lines.

Oman’s primary gains are concentrated in sectors where it already has a strong presence in the Indian market, particularly energy, fertilisers, and industrial raw materials.

India imported goods worth approximately $7.2 billion from Oman during FY2026. Key imports included:

  • Crude oil
  • Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
  • Fertilisers
  • Methanol
  • Ammonia

These imports play an important role in supporting India’s energy security, agricultural sector, and industrial production.

Strengthening Economic Ties

The implementation of the CEPA is expected to deepen economic cooperation between the two countries while improving supply-chain resilience during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.

For India, the agreement not only expands export opportunities but also strengthens access to a strategically located partner capable of supporting trade and energy flows during disruptions in the Gulf region.

As global trade routes face increasing uncertainty, the India-Oman CEPA is expected to enhance bilateral trade, improve market access, and support long-term economic cooperation between the two nations.

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Indian Rupee

The Indian rupee endured one of its sharpest blows of the year on Friday, slipping to 89.49 against the U.S. dollar—a level never seen before. The fall broke past the previous low of 88.80 and marked the rupee’s steepest single-day slide since May, signalling a market under pressure on multiple fronts.

Despite India’s economy showing solid growth and stock markets hovering near record highs, the currency is facing a very different reality.

Indian Rupee vs US Dollar: Monthly Trend 2025

A Perfect Storm: Outflows, Tariffs, and a Trade Deal in Limbo

The roots of the currency’s decline trace back to late August, when steep U.S. tariffs on Indian exports came into force. Since then:

  • trade volumes with the United States have weakened,
  • India’s merchandise trade deficit hit a record peak,
  • exports to the U.S. fell nearly 9% year-on-year,
  • and foreign investors pulled out $16.5 billion from Indian equities.

This combination has eroded foreign currency inflows just when global risk sentiment has turned uncertain. The result is a currency that has been sliding steadily for nearly three months.

The delay and ambiguity around a potential U.S.-India trade deal added another layer of caution. Economists say renewed clarity on the deal may be vital for reviving export orders that have slowed sharply since mid-year.

RBI Steps Back—And the Market Notices

For weeks, traders watched the Reserve Bank of India defend the 88.80 level with consistent intervention. But on Friday, that line of protection appeared to recede.

Large custodial outflows triggered stop-losses, and with the central bank not stepping in early enough, the rupee’s decline accelerated sharply.
Traders believe the RBI instead intervened closer to 89.50—allowing the market to adjust to a new range.

The shift suggests the RBI may be letting the rupee find a more natural level in the face of sustained dollar demand and global uncertainty.

India Faces the Risk of a Rare Two-Year BoP Deficit

Citi’s latest note adds another layer of concern: India may be headed for a $5 billion balance of payments deficit in FY2026. If this projection holds, it would mark the first instance since 1991 where India posts back-to-back years of BoP deficits.

A persistently weak rupee, reduced capital inflows, and sluggish export growth all feed into this possibility.

The rupee is now down 4.5% year-to-date, making it one of Asia’s weakest currencies in 2025.

New Technical Levels Shape the Market’s View

Analysts now see 89.50 as the new resistance zone for USD/INR. With importers rushing to hedge and exporters largely inactive, the rupee faces additional pressure in the near term.

FX strategists caution that sentiment remains skewed against the rupee—markets have been positioned short on INR for weeks, and the RBI appears to be allowing gradual adjustment rather than aggressively defending earlier triggers.

The rupee also touched an all-time low of 12.60 against the offshore Chinese yuan, marking an 8% drop for the year.

What Could Stabilise the Rupee?

According to ANZ’s Dhiraj Nim and other analysts, the most critical element now is the U.S.-India trade agreement.
A favorable deal—especially one that softens tariff burdens—could significantly lift investor sentiment and pull USD/INR back from current highs.

Until then, volatility remains the base case.

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