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Retail Inflation

New Delhi, February 12, 2026: The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Thursday released the first data under the revised Consumer Price Index (CPI) series, showing retail inflation at 2.75% for January 2026. As this marks the first release under the new base year of 2024, year-on-year comparisons with earlier periods are not yet available.

The new CPI series replaces the earlier base year of 2012 and incorporates updated consumption patterns from the latest Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2023–24. The release was made in the presence of MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran, and other officials.

Expanded Coverage and Methodological Changes

The revised index significantly expands coverage of goods and services. The total number of items included has increased to 358 from 299 in the previous series. Goods now account for 308 items, up from 259, while services have risen to 50 from 40 earlier.

Data collection has also broadened geographically and digitally. Rural market coverage has expanded to 1,465 markets from 1,181, while urban market coverage has increased to 1,395 from 1,114. For the first time, data from 12 online marketplaces have been incorporated into the index.

The new series provides more detailed classification, dividing goods and services into 12 broad groups, compared to six under the previous framework. Officials said this change reflects evolving consumption patterns and structural changes in the economy over the past decade.

“The economy has undergone a significant transformation in the last decade,” Mr. Nageswaran said. “Consumption behaviour, market structures, and the compositions of household expenditure have evolved and the new CPI structure unsurprisingly reflects these changes.”

Revised Weights Reflect Consumption Trends

One of the key changes in the new series is the revision of weights assigned to various categories, based on updated expenditure patterns from the HCES 2023–24.

The weight assigned to the food and beverages category has been reduced to 36.75% from 45.86% in the previous series. According to Mr. Nageswaran, the lower weight for food which is generally more volatile may reduce overall volatility in headline inflation, other factors remaining constant.

The housing category has been expanded to include water, electricity, gas, and other fuels. The combined category now carries a weight of 17.67%, compared to 10.07% earlier for housing alone.

Additional broad groups introduced in the revised structure include:

  • Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance (4.47%)
  • Health (6.1%)
  • Transport (8.8%)
  • Information and communication (3.61%)
  • Recreation, sports and culture (1.52%)
  • Education services (3.33%)
  • Restaurants and accommodation services (3.35%)
  • Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services (5.04%)

The weight of the paan, tobacco and intoxicants category has increased to 2.99% from 2.38%, while clothing and footwear has seen a reduction in weight to 2.38% from 6.53%.

“Since the basket is aligned with recent expenditure data, the inflation signals from this will be more closely matched to the prevailing economic conditions,” Mr. Nageswaran said. He added that the revised structure would strengthen the information base for calibrating monetary and fiscal policy.

Historical Data and Linking Factor

While January 2026 marks the first year-on-year inflation figure under the new series, MoSPI has provided index values using the revised methodology going back to January 2025. However, earlier index values are not directly available for calculating historical inflation rates.

Mr. Garg said that the government is following international practice by providing a linking factor that enables users to compute comparable index values back to 2013.

The introduction of the new CPI series is expected to influence how inflation trends are assessed by policymakers, financial markets, and researchers. With updated weights and expanded coverage, the revised index aims to better capture current consumption patterns and economic conditions.

Further monthly releases under the new series will allow clearer trend comparisons over time.

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India's Inflation

India’s inflation, which had touched an unprecedented low of 0.25% in October, inched back up to 0.71% in November. Government data released on Friday showed that the cooling cycle in food and fuel prices has started to taper off, pushing consumer inflation slightly higher. The number came almost exactly in line with economists’ expectations, based on a Reuters survey.

This rise was most visible across everyday essentials. Vegetables, eggs, meat, fish, and spices all saw month-on-month price increases, while fuel and light climbed 2.32% compared to 1.98% in October. Both urban and rural inflation moved upward, indicating that the pressure was broad-based rather than confined to a single region or consumer group.

How the RBI Is Responding

Despite the uptick, India continues to operate in a low-inflation environment. In fact, the softness in price levels combined with emerging signs of economic moderation prompted the Reserve Bank of India to reduce policy rates by 25 basis points last week. The move was intended to support domestic growth, which has remained resilient but is beginning to show pockets of strain.

The RBI now projects inflation at 2% for the fiscal year ending March 2026, lower than its October forecast of 2.6%. It expects CPI inflation to average 2.9% in the current quarter and climb gradually to 4.0% by September 2026. Policymakers have described the present balance between growth and inflation as favourable enough to justify a supportive monetary stance.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra echoed this view, saying the central bank will continue to respond proactively to the productive needs of the economy. Analysts remain divided, however, on whether the recent rate cut marks the end of the easing cycle or if more cuts may follow.

Exports Under Pressure as US Tariffs Bite

External conditions have added a fresh layer of complexity. In August, the United States imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports—pushing duties on some categories as high as 50%. Key labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, and marine products have been hit hardest.

While goods shipped to the US account for only around 2% of India’s GDP, sustained weakness in these industries could lead to job losses and dampen overall economic momentum. October’s export figures underscored the strain: outbound shipments to the US dropped 8.5% year-on-year to $6.3 billion, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. India’s total exports also fell sharply by 11.8% in the same month.

Domestic Policy Tries to Cushion the Blow

To counter these headwinds, the government moved in late September to simplify the goods and services tax structure and lower levies on several consumer items. The timing, ahead of India’s extended festive season, helped boost demand for cars, consumer goods, and agricultural products. Higher domestic consumption provided a brief offset to the export slump but has not been enough to shield the wider economy from global trade friction.

Rupee Slides as External Pressures Build

With no breakthrough in trade talks between New Delhi and Washington, India continues to feel the pressure on its currency. The rupee has been hitting fresh record lows and recently slipped past the 90-per-dollar level. The sustained weakness reflects not only the export slowdown but also stronger dollar demand and broader global risk dynamics.

Whether India can maintain its growth trajectory will depend on how these domestic and international forces evolve over the coming months. For now, inflation remains low but rising, growth is steady but vulnerable, and policy decisions both at home and abroad—are shaping the next phase of India’s economic landscape.

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India Economy

India’s Services Sector Hits Record Growth in August

India’s services sector witnessed its sharpest expansion in 15 years during August 2025, marking a remarkable phase of economic momentum. The HSBC India Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, surged to 62.9 from 60.5 in July. While slightly lower than the preliminary estimate of 65.6, this reading firmly signals robust growth, far above the neutral 50.0 threshold.

Drivers of Growth: New Orders and Global Demand

The surge was largely fueled by a sharp rise in new business. Domestic demand remained strong, while international demand also picked up, with export orders climbing at the fastest pace in 14 months. This dual boost reflected India’s strengthening position in global services markets, with IT, finance, and consulting sectors leading the momentum.

Inflation Concerns Resurface

However, rapid expansion brought with it renewed price pressures. Input costs rose at the steepest pace in nine months, while service providers passed these costs on to consumers at the fastest rate since July 2012. Output price inflation has reached worrying levels, raising concerns that India’s broader inflation, which hit an eight-year low of 1.55% in July, may now reverse course.

Business Confidence on the Rise

Despite inflation challenges, optimism among service firms improved to a three-month high. Companies expressed confidence in future demand, supported by expansion plans, advertising investments, and expectations of sustained client activity. Still, hiring growth remained modest, suggesting that businesses are cautious about expanding their workforce amid rising cost pressures.

Composite PMI Highlights Broad-Based Growth

The economic surge was not limited to services alone. The Composite PMI, which accounts for both manufacturing and services activity, rose to 63.2 in August — its highest in 17 years. This indicates that India’s economic momentum is well-rounded, supported by both domestic consumption and international business opportunities.

External Risks to Watch

Amid this optimism, external risks loom large. The U.S. government’s recently imposed 50% tariff on Indian goods could dampen future growth prospects, particularly if trade tensions escalate. Balancing domestic demand with global headwinds will be critical for sustaining momentum in the coming quarters.

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