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Indian equity markets delivered a confident performance in the first trading week of 2026, ending January 2 at record closing levels after weeks of consolidation. A mix of improving earnings expectations, optimism around the upcoming Union Budget, and sector-specific tailwinds helped indices move higher, while broader markets also showed steady participation.

After trading in a narrow range through most of December, investors appeared more willing to take positions, encouraged by early signals of resilient domestic demand and stable macroeconomic conditions.

One of the key factors supporting the rally was anticipation around December quarter (Q3FY26) earnings. Market participants expect corporate results to reflect steady consumption trends, improving margins in select sectors, and continued credit growth.

At the same time, expectations that the Union Budget may include measures to support growth, infrastructure spending, and manufacturing added to the positive undertone. Together, these factors helped lift sentiment across both frontline and broader indices.

Sector-wise, the auto space stood out, supported by encouraging December sales data that pointed to sustained demand across passenger and commercial segments. PSU banks also remained in focus as improving asset quality and expectations of faster credit expansion attracted buying interest.

The utilities segment gained traction on hopes of rising power demand and increased industrial activity. In contrast, FMCG stocks faced pressure, largely due to selling in ITC, which weighed on the otherwise stable defensive pack.

Broader markets outperformed benchmark indices during the week, with midcap stocks showing stronger momentum than large caps. Smallcaps also posted gains, though at a more measured pace.

Meanwhile, precious metals witnessed sharp profit booking. Gold futures fell nearly five percent during the week, while silver declined around 1.5 percent, reflecting shifting risk appetite and positioning after recent gains.

Weekly Market Performance Snapshot

By the close of the week, the Nifty 50 had gained 286 points, rising 1.1 percent to end at 26,329. The BSE Sensex advanced 721 points, or 0.85 percent, to settle at 85,762.

Among broader indices, the Nifty Midcap 100 climbed 1.74 percent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.77 percent, underlining improving participation beyond frontline stocks.

What to Watch in the Coming Week

Looking ahead to the week beginning January 5, markets are expected to trade in a range with a positive bias. Investors will closely track provisional quarterly business updates and early earnings-related commentary.

Global cues may introduce some near-term volatility, particularly around geopolitical developments involving the US and Venezuela. Additionally, key global data points such as US payroll numbers, unemployment figures, services PMI, and inflation data from China could influence market direction. Movements in crude oil and precious metals prices will also remain on the radar.

While near-term fluctuations cannot be ruled out, the broader market tone remains constructive. Strong domestic fundamentals, improving sectoral trends, and expectations of policy support continue to provide a stable base for equities as the new year unfolds.

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Nifty

Market Overview: A Weak Finish to the Session
Indian equity markets ended Thursday’s session on a weak note, with major indices slipping under the weight of global uncertainty. The Sensex dropped 592.67 points, or 0.7%, to close at 84,404.46, while the Nifty declined by 176.05 points, or 0.68%, settling below the crucial 25,900 mark. The sell-off came as investors digested the U.S. Federal Reserve’s cautious tone following its latest policy decision, along with renewed foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows that pressured sentiment across sectors.

Fed’s December Rate Cut Doubts Rattle Global Sentiment
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, as widely anticipated. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments following the decision unsettled investors. While acknowledging progress on inflation, Powell emphasized that further easing would depend on incoming data — a stance that disappointed markets hoping for a clearer signal of continued rate cuts.
Powell noted that “downside risks to employment have risen,” but also warned that sticky inflation could limit the Fed’s ability to ease policy quickly. His message: the Fed is not in a rush to loosen monetary conditions, especially amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has disrupted economic data releases.

Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Lead at VT Markets, summed up the sentiment: “Stocks and bonds both fell after Powell struck a more cautious tone. The Fed is easing, but with restraint — and that uncertainty could fuel volatility in the coming weeks.”

FII Outflows Add to the Pressure
Adding to the domestic headwinds, foreign institutional investors turned net sellers, offloading shares worth ₹2,540.16 crore in Wednesday’s session. Persistent FII outflows often indicate risk aversion among global investors, particularly when U.S. yields rise and the dollar strengthens. This capital movement has been a consistent drag on Indian equities, limiting upside momentum even as domestic investors remain net buyers.

Sectoral Performance: Pharma, Insurance, and Telecom Drag
The day’s biggest laggards included Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, HDFC Life Insurance, Sun Pharma, Bharti Airtel, and Tata Steel — each declining up to 5%. The broader BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices also ended lower, reflecting a risk-off mood across the market spectrum. Analysts pointed out that profit-taking in recent outperformers, coupled with weak global cues, contributed to the day’s fall.

What Lies Ahead for Investors
With the Fed signaling caution and foreign funds turning sellers, short-term volatility may persist. Investors will closely monitor global inflation data, crude oil prices, and U.S. economic indicators for direction. Domestically, corporate earnings and festive season demand trends could influence sentiment going forward.

Market strategists suggest maintaining a stock-specific approach and focusing on sectors with strong balance sheets and steady earnings growth. Banking, capital goods, and IT remain preferred picks for long-term investors.

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In what’s being dubbed the most dramatic markets collapse since the COVID-19 crash, financial systems around the globe were jolted on April 5 as former U.S. President Donald Trump’s 10% baseline reciprocal tariff policy came into effect. The aftershocks were instant and unforgiving—Wall Street logged its worst day in four years, and tremors were felt across the Atlantic in London, Frankfurt, and Paris, sparking renewed fears of a global recession.

Wall Street in Free Fall

It started with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling over 5.5%, leading a bloodbath that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 plummet 6% and 6.1%, respectively. With $5 trillion in market value wiped out in just 48 hours, traders were left grappling with déjà vu—this was the steepest two-day fall since March 2020, when the world first reeled from pandemic panic.

Adding to the pain, 10-year Treasury yields dipped three basis points to 3.99%, suggesting investors were fleeing to safety, while the U.S. dollar surged 1%, underlining the depth of concern. Though typically a haven during crises, tech-heavy Nasdaq entering bear market territory marks how deeply the sentiment has soured across sectors.

Trump’s Tariff Storm: Global Reactions Begin

The catalyst? Trump’s April 2 announcement of a reciprocal tariff system, introducing a flat 10% import tax on all goods entering the U.S., with provisions for added surcharges targeting specific sectors. The administration argues it’s a move for trade fairness and domestic industrial revival, but critics—both domestic and international—are calling it protectionism with a heavy price tag.

Markets have responded with swift pessimism, as supply chain disruptions, rising input costs, and inflationary pressures loom large. China’s looming countermeasures have only added fuel to the uncertainty.

Europe Feels the Heat

The tariff tremors rippled across the globe. In London, the FTSE 100 nosedived 1.8%, its worst fall since the pandemic began. Tech, manufacturing, and energy sectors bore the brunt. Germany’s DAX dropped 2.3%, while France’s CAC 40 fell by 1.6%, indicating a continent-wide investor retreat from risk.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, reacting to the crisis, began damage control efforts. After speaking with the Australian and Italian Prime Ministers, Starmer reiterated the need for “like-minded nations to maintain strong global relationships” in an increasingly fragmented trade environment. Sources confirm more leader-to-leader calls are lined up through the weekend.

Currency Swings & Crypto’s Quiet Climb

As traditional markets stumbled, crypto assets offered a modest glimmer. Bitcoin gained 2.1%, touching $84,024.64, while Ether rose 0.8% to $1,811.63—a reminder that in times of fiat chaos, digital assets may still serve as an alternative hedge, albeit volatile.

Meanwhile, global currencies took a beating:

  • The euro slipped 1% to $1.0944
  • The British pound dropped 1.7%, falling to $1.2876
  • The yen weakened 0.6% to 146.95 per dollar

These shifts reflect the dollar’s dominant surge, which is often seen when investors scramble for stability amid chaos.


Outlook: A Fragile Global Moment

Whether this is the start of a full-blown global recession or a sharp but short-term correction remains uncertain. What’s clear, however, is that Trump’s tariff play has injected fresh volatility into an already cautious global economy. From Wall Street to Westminster, stakeholders are bracing for a new phase of uncertainty, one where nationalist trade policies meet fragile post-pandemic recovery.

The days ahead will be crucial. Markets will look to central banks, fiscal policymakers, and global leaders for stability—or at least, for clarity. But for now, the only certainty is that the era of calm markets may have abruptly ended.

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Nvidia, the leading AI chipmaker, has outpaced Google-parent Alphabet, securing the coveted spot as the third most valuable company in the United States. The remarkable ascent occurred as Nvidia’s share price surged by 2.46%, driving its market capitalization to an impressive $1.825 trillion. In contrast, Alphabet experienced a more modest 0.55% increase, reaching a market value of $1.821 trillion.

This development follows Nvidia’s recent milestone of surpassing Amazon in market capitalization just a day earlier. Amazon, with a market cap of $1.776 trillion, saw its stock rise by 1.39% on the same day. Nvidia’s rise is emblematic of its exceptional performance in the stock market, witnessing a 47% surge in share price this year after a remarkable triple-fold increase in 2023. The surge is attributed to robust demand for Nvidia’s chips, solidifying the company’s dominance with control over approximately 80% of the high-end AI chip market.

The company is currently contending with shortages of its premium components, posing challenges for customers seeking Nvidia’s top-of-the-line products. AI developers are reportedly facing extended waiting lists to access Nvidia’s processors through cloud-computing providers, underscoring the soaring demand for the company’s offerings.

Notably, technology-focused companies such as Microsoft and Meta Platforms have experienced surges in their stock values, reaching record highs amid heightened optimism surrounding artificial intelligence.

Investors are now eagerly anticipating Nvidia’s upcoming quarterly earnings report scheduled for next Wednesday. Analysts are optimistic about the company’s performance, expecting another stellar quarter and a positive outlook. Forecasts for Nvidia’s January fiscal quarter revenue project a staggering triple-fold increase to $20.37 billion, fueled by the relentless demand for its high-end AI chips. Adjusted net profit estimates suggest a remarkable surge of over 400% to $11.38 billion.

It’s important to mention that Microsoft, valued at over $3 trillion, previously overtook Apple in January to become the world’s most valuable company. The current standings list Saudi Aramco as the world’s third most valuable publicly-listed company, as per the London Stock Exchange Group. Nvidia’s ascent further underscores the dynamic landscape of the tech industry, driven by the escalating demand for advanced AI solutions.

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