As we enter 2024, the market has seen a 7% gain in December, an 18% return in the last two months, a 46% return in 2023, and a 57% gain in nine months from the low of March.
Over the last 16 years, the NSE midcap index and the 100 stock index, reflecting midcap and large-cap segments, have witnessed negative returns in 12 out of 16 Januarys. Averaging a 2.2% negative return, exceptions include positive years like 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2020. Notably, 2012 showcased a double-digit return after a 25% market fall in 2011.
Examining historical data reveals nuanced market behavior. In 2011, a 17% market decline preceded the positive January of 2012. Similarly, despite a robust election outcome in 2014, 2015 saw a market return of less than 15% in the prior five months. The positive January of 2017 followed a 10% demonetization-led sell-off in 2016, and 2020’s positive start was amidst recovering from the NBFC crisis.
As we step into 2024, the market closed December with a 7% gain, showcasing an 18% return in the last two months, a 46% return in 2023, and an impressive 57% gain in nine months from the March low. While these gains hold significance for traders and momentum enthusiasts, long-term investors may view them as short-term fluctuations.
Decent macro-economic fundamentals, an anticipation of lower global interest rates, and reduced election risk post BJP’s strong performance in recent state elections contribute to positive factors. While January historically presents challenges, the current positive indicators suggest the market may defy seasonal trends.
The key lies in balancing short-term considerations with a long-term perspective as we embark on the new year.