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US Grants India 30-Day Waiver To Continue Buying Russian Oil

India has received a temporary waiver from the United States allowing its refiners to continue purchasing Russian crude oil for the next 30 days, as global energy markets face disruptions linked to escalating conflict in the Middle East.

The announcement was made on Friday by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who confirmed that the US Treasury Department had issued a special licence permitting Indian refiners to import Russian-origin crude oil already loaded on vessels.

According to the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the licence authorizes “the delivery and sale of crude oil and petroleum products of Russian Federation origin loaded on vessels as of March 5, 2026 to India.” The authorization will remain valid until the end of the day on April 3, 2026.

The waiver comes at a time when global energy markets are under pressure due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply disruptions affecting key oil-producing regions.

Temporary Measure To Stabilise Energy Markets

The US government described the move as a short-term step designed to ensure stability in the global oil market. Officials indicated that the waiver applies only to oil shipments that were already in transit or stranded at sea due to existing sanctions regimes.

In a statement posted on the social media platform X, Secretary Bessent said the measure would help maintain the flow of oil in international markets during a period of uncertainty.

He stated that the waiver was intentionally limited to 30 days and would not significantly benefit the Russian government financially, as it only covers cargoes that had already been loaded on vessels.

Bessent also highlighted the importance of the relationship between the United States and India, describing India as an “essential partner.” He added that Washington expects India to expand purchases of American oil in the future.

Impact Of Russia Sanctions

The development follows sanctions imposed by the United States last November targeting major Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft as part of efforts to pressure Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

After the sanctions were introduced, India’s imports of Russian crude fell significantly. Industry data shows that in January 2026 India imported about 1.1 million barrels per day of Russian oil, the lowest level since November 2022.

Russia’s share in India’s overall oil imports dropped to 21.2 percent during that period. However, the share reportedly increased again to around 30 percent in February, indicating renewed reliance on discounted Russian supplies.

India has been one of the largest buyers of Russian oil since the Ukraine conflict began in 2022, benefiting from lower prices compared to other international suppliers.

Middle East Conflict Adds Pressure

The US waiver also comes amid growing instability in the Middle East, where ongoing military tensions have affected oil production and shipping routes.

Oil production across parts of the Gulf has been disrupted following strikes on major oil facilities. Among the installations reported to have been hit are Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia and Iraq’s Rumaila oil field, both considered significant contributors to global oil supply.

The situation has further intensified after Iran reportedly blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage through which nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes.

The blockade has raised concerns among energy-importing countries, including India, about the security of global oil shipments and potential supply shortages.

Oil Prices Rise

The conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran has also led to a rise in global oil prices. On Friday morning, Brent crude oil was trading at $83.07 per barrel, reflecting the growing uncertainty in global energy markets.

Despite the increase in international prices, government sources in India indicated that there are currently no plans to increase domestic petrol and diesel prices.

Energy Security Concerns

India, one of the world’s largest oil importers, relies heavily on overseas supplies to meet its energy needs. Any disruption in global supply chains can have a direct impact on fuel availability and economic stability.

The temporary waiver is expected to provide short-term relief to Indian refiners while global markets adjust to the evolving geopolitical situation.

Energy analysts note that the coming weeks will be important for determining whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open and whether further disruptions occur in the Middle East’s oil infrastructure.

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US-Japan

Trump Confirms Massive US-Japan Trade Agreement

In a bold announcement on his Truth Social platform, former US President Donald Trump revealed the finalization of a sweeping trade agreement between the United States and Japan. Marketed as one of the largest trade deals ever, the agreement reportedly includes a 15% reciprocal tariff structure and a substantial investment promise from Japan.

$550 Billion Investment and 90% Profit Clause

According to Trump, Japan has committed to investing $550 billion in the United States. The structure of the deal allegedly guarantees the US a striking 90% share of the resulting profits, although exact mechanisms for this distribution remain unclear. Trump emphasized that the investment is expected to create “Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs” for American citizens.

Reciprocal Tariffs and Market Access

One of the most significant aspects of the agreement is the implementation of a 15% tariff on Japanese goods entering the United States. This measure replaces the 25% tariff Trump had threatened to impose starting August 1. In exchange, Japan will reciprocate by opening up its markets to American exports—especially in the sectors of automobiles, agricultural goods like rice, and other key products.

Context and Political Timing

The deal follows a series of fast-tracked trade negotiations that Trump has pursued in recent weeks. Similar trade pacts have recently been announced with countries including the Philippines, Indonesia, Britain, and Vietnam. The timing of the announcement also coincides with political turbulence in Japan, where Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba recently suffered electoral setbacks that reduced his ruling coalition’s upper house majority.

Strategic and Economic Implications

While the full implications of the trade structure are still under scrutiny, the agreement signals a deepening of economic ties between two of the world’s largest economies. Analysts suggest this move could rebalance trade relations in the Indo-Pacific region while giving the US leverage in broader global trade dynamics.

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In a world grappling with unpredictable geopolitical shifts, the latest chapter in global economic diplomacy has unfolded with an unmistakable clang of metal—tariffs. US President Donald Trump’s sharp escalation of trade duties has triggered distinct responses from global powerhouses, each crafting its own path amid rising uncertainty. From China’s fierce pushback to Japan’s conciliatory tone, the globe is witnessing a range of tactical manoeuvres.


China: The Iron-Willed Resistor

China has chosen not to blink. In response to Trump’s recent threat of an additional 50 per cent tariff on Chinese imports—stacked atop an already burdensome 34 per cent tariff—Beijing has doubled down. The Commerce Ministry’s statement was unambiguous: “resolute opposition” and countermeasures will be the course ahead.

This tit-for-tat stance has triggered deep tremors in Chinese markets. The Hang Seng Index tumbled, marking its steepest fall in nearly three decades. With a tariff avalanche looming—cumulatively more than doubling import costs of Chinese goods in the US—China’s resilience will be tested. But unlike the US, China’s leadership isn’t burdened by electoral cycles. President Xi Jinping enjoys a consolidation of power, a solid economic buffer in the form of fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a long-term plan to shift China’s growth story toward internal consumption.


Japan: The Negotiator in the Room

On the opposite end of the response spectrum is Japan. Instead of retaliating, Tokyo is preparing to talk. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has already engaged with President Trump and is dispatching a delegation for negotiations with key American trade officials. This strategic move signals Japan’s preference for diplomacy over defiance.

The move seems to have sparked optimism in the markets. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 surged over six per cent, and the Topix jumped nearly seven per cent, with a ripple effect felt across other Asian markets. Investors seem to believe that Japan might crack the code and coax Washington into a less aggressive stance, which could potentially offer a blueprint for other nations navigating similar waters.


European Union: Walking the Tightrope

Caught between confrontation and compromise, the European Union appears to be weighing its steps carefully. Trade ministers from the 27-member bloc convened in Luxembourg and walked out with a dual-strategy blueprint. While negotiations remain the preferred path, preparations for retaliatory measures are underway—just in case Washington chooses to escalate.

Given the sheer scale of the EU-US trade relationship, which accounts for approximately €1.5 trillion, Brussels cannot afford to act hastily. The aim is to avoid a trade war while ensuring Europe does not appear passive in the face of economic aggression. Intriguingly, this approach has found an unlikely ally in Elon Musk, who has publicly backed negotiation as the wiser route forward.


India: Strategic Silence and Subtle Signals

India, for its part, has responded with caution. While the initial reaction was muted, signalling a period of internal assessment, informal conversations within government corridors hint at a preference for quiet diplomacy over aggressive countermeasures. This is a notable shift from the previous Trump era, when India had responded to American tariffs on steel and aluminium with reciprocal levies.

For now, individual ministries have played down the likely impact of the new tariff regime, perhaps signalling a wait-and-watch approach. However, India’s position could evolve depending on how the global trade chessboard rearranges itself in the coming weeks.


The US: On the Edge of Economic and Political Complexity

Ironically, the initiator of this tariff spiral may have fewer economic tools at hand to withstand it. With limited room for fiscal expansion—save an extension of previous tax cuts—Washington is also at loggerheads with the Federal Reserve, which is showing no signs of slashing interest rates to support the economy. That tension, combined with an election horizon looming for Trump, could constrict America’s ability to endure a prolonged trade standoff.


A Test of Strategy, Stamina, and Statecraft

As the world grapples with President Trump’s combative trade approach, what’s emerging is not a uniform global backlash but a diverse set of responses. China is fighting fire with fire. Japan is offering an olive branch. The EU is hedging its bets. India is treading cautiously. In this high-stakes diplomatic game, success may not be determined by who retaliates hardest—but by who adapts fastest.

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