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The 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) opened on November 9, 2026, in Antalya, Türkiye, bringing together government representatives, climate negotiators, international organisations and other stakeholders from nearly 200 countries for two weeks of discussions on global climate action. The summit, scheduled to run until November 20, comes at a time when rising global temperatures, extreme weather events, geopolitical conflicts, energy insecurity and increasing electricity demand are creating additional challenges for international climate efforts.

The opening discussions highlighted the growing urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and implementing existing international climate commitments. United Nations Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell called on countries to accelerate their response, warning that progress towards global climate objectives remains insufficient. The United Nations Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2026, published in October, also warned that global temperatures are on course to exceed the 1.5°C threshold established under the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, the report emphasised that rapid emissions reductions could still limit the extent of warming and create a pathway towards returning below that level later this century.

The World Meteorological Organization’s State of the Climate Update 2026, released alongside the opening of COP31, reported that 2026 is expected to rank among the four warmest years on record. Rising ocean temperatures, record-high sea levels and an intensifying El Niño phenomenon are adding to concerns about future climate risks. The consequences are already visible in several regions, with extreme heatwaves and devastating weather-related disasters affecting communities and infrastructure. In Nepal, a glacier-collapse-related flood in August killed at least 1,455 people, according to the latest figures cited by the UK Parliament, while thousands remained missing. These developments highlight the growing importance of climate adaptation, disaster preparedness and resilient infrastructure, particularly in vulnerable regions.

Turkey Promotes Global Electrification Initiative

A major priority of Türkiye’s COP31 presidency is the proposed 35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge, which aims to increase electricity’s share of global final energy consumption from just over 20% currently to 35% by 2035. The initiative focuses on expanding electricity use across transportation, buildings and industrial activities while supporting the development of modern electricity grids and energy storage systems.

Turkish Environment Minister and COP31 President Murat Kurum has emphasised the need to move beyond international declarations and translate climate commitments into practical outcomes. The proposed transition includes greater adoption of electric vehicles, electric heating systems, energy-efficient industrial equipment and cleaner public transportation.

However, electrification alone cannot guarantee emissions reductions. Its climate benefits will depend significantly on whether the additional electricity is generated through renewable and other low-carbon energy sources. Expanding solar and wind power, strengthening transmission infrastructure and improving energy storage will therefore remain essential to achieving the initiative’s objectives.

Geopolitical Conflicts Complicate Energy Transition

Energy security and geopolitical instability have also emerged as important issues during the summit. Conflicts involving Russia and Ukraine, alongside tensions and conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, have highlighted the risks associated with dependence on internationally traded fossil fuels.

Disruptions to energy supplies and fluctuations in global fuel prices have increased economic pressure on households, businesses and national governments. While these developments have strengthened arguments for renewable energy investment, they have also encouraged some countries to maintain or expand domestic fossil-fuel production to protect their immediate energy requirements.

The United States has no official federal government delegation at COP31 for the second consecutive year under President Donald Trump. His administration has continued to favour policies supporting domestic oil, natural gas and coal production.

These developments illustrate the difficulty of balancing economic growth, affordable energy and long-term environmental commitments. Countries must address immediate energy requirements while developing sustainable alternatives that can reduce dependence on carbon-intensive fuels.

Renewable Energy and Artificial Intelligence Enter Climate Debate

Renewable energy remains central to discussions about reducing emissions and strengthening energy independence. Solar and wind power, supported by improvements in energy storage and electricity infrastructure, offer opportunities to reduce exposure to international fossil-fuel price fluctuations.

The increasing availability of relatively affordable clean-energy technologies, including equipment manufactured in China, is also supporting renewable energy deployment across different markets. Expanding these technologies will require continued investment, supportive policies and international cooperation.

Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) has introduced another challenge for global energy planning. AI applications, cloud computing services and large-scale data centres require substantial amounts of electricity, potentially increasing greenhouse gas emissions when their power supply depends heavily on fossil fuels.

Recognising this issue, Türkiye is promoting the Antalya AI Pledge, an initiative intended to encourage more sustainable development and deployment of artificial intelligence. The discussions aim to bring governments, businesses and technology stakeholders into efforts to align technological innovation with environmental objectives.

India’s Energy Transition Remains an Important Issue

For India, the priorities discussed at COP31 have particular significance. The country faces increasing electricity demand driven by industrial development, urbanisation, transportation, digital services and expanding AI infrastructure. At the same time, coal continues to play a major role in India’s electricity generation.

Strengthening renewable energy capacity, expanding electric mobility, modernising transmission networks and improving industrial energy efficiency will be important for balancing economic development with emissions reduction. Ensuring that electricity-intensive digital infrastructure increasingly relies on low-carbon energy will also become more relevant as India’s technology sector expands.

Climate adaptation and financial support are equally important. Vulnerable communities face growing risks from extreme heat, flooding and other climate-related disasters, making investment in early-warning systems, resilient infrastructure and disaster preparedness essential.

Implementation Will Determine COP31’s Outcome

COP31 brings together several interconnected challenges involving climate change, international relations, economic stability, energy security and technological development. Its discussions highlight the need for stronger international cooperation, expanded renewable energy investment, sustainable electrification and responsible AI development.

Climate finance will also remain central to negotiations, particularly for developing countries that require resources to strengthen adaptation, improve infrastructure and transition towards cleaner energy systems.

Ultimately, the success of COP31 will depend on whether participating countries can translate their commitments into measurable action. As global energy demand continues to rise and climate risks intensify, governments face the challenge of supporting economic development while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting vulnerable populations. The decisions and commitments emerging from Antalya could play an important role in shaping the direction of international climate policy in the years ahead.

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Momen Zellmi : The relationship between Turkey and Iraq has recently advanced to a new level of mutual understanding, highlighted by the recent visit of Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to Baghdad. During this visit, the two nations inked nineteen agreements spanning politics, security, investment, and trade. Concurrently, the Kurdistan Region, with its historical ties to both Erbil and Ankara, is redefining its relationship with Turkey. This raises an intriguing question: what influence do Kurdish Islamists wield in shaping these ties? With the Kurdistan Region strengthening its bonds with Turkey under President Erdogan’s leadership, the role of its Islamic factions gains heightened significance.

Kurdish Islamists in Kurdistan Region

In the late 1970s, Mohammad Ahmed Sawaf and Amjad Zahawi, Iraqi leaders in the Muslim Brotherhood, introduced the concept of political Islam to Kurdish cities in Iraqi Kurdistan. As a result, in 1984, the first Kurdish Islamic Association was established by Sheikh Mohammed Barznji (1945-2014), primarily with a military focus.

Kurdish Islamic parties can be divided into two categories: the first being predominantly jihadist and military groups that controlled the Hawraman region of Halabja province on the Iraq-Iran border (1993-2003). The Kurdish Islamic Association (1984) later evolved into the Islamic Movement IMK (1987), which, in 1999, merged with the Islamic Renaissance (Nahdha) to form the Islamic Union Movement IUMK. Subsequently, the party disbanded and split into the Kurdistan Islamic Group -Komal (led by Ali Bapir), the Islamic Movement (led by Ali Abdulaziz), and Jund Al-Islam/Ansar Al-Islam (led by Mulla Krekar). The military factions of Kurdish Islamists fought against the Ba’ath regime, while the educational factions actively participated in reconstructing villages and supporting impoverished families. However, some leaders, along with small groups of followers, veered towards extremism, aligning themselves with various groups such as Tawheed, Hamas, Jihad group, Jund Al-Islam, and Ansar Al-Islam. Continuously, they encouraged Kurdish youth to cross borders and join extremists from other countries. During the Arab uprisings, particularly the Syrian revolution in 2012, over 600 Kurdish youth joined Al-Nusrah and ISIS.

Conversely, the main Muslim Brotherhood-backed group in northern Iraq, primarily focused on education, established the Kurdistan Islamic Union KIU (led by Salahadin Bahadin) in February 1994.
In 2005, Kurdish Islamists from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, particularly Yakgrtu and Komal, took part in the inaugural Iraqi elections, earning multiple seats. Subsequently, in 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, they consistently participated in both Iraqi and Kurdistan parliamentary elections. Their representation has remained at around 12 percent in the Kurdistan parliament and nearly two percent in the Iraqi parliament. At present, they hold five seats in the Iraqi parliament and 12 seats in the Kurdistan Region.

Kurdish Islamists and AKP in Turkey

Since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Recep Tayyip Erdogan assumed power in Turkey, transforming its governance into a modern and moderate Islamic regime, the discourse around the government’s relationship with Islamic Kurds has been a subject of keen interest.

Established in 1994 by Salahaddin Mohammed Bahadin, the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) stands as a moderate Kurdish Islamic party inspired by the teachings of the Muslim Brotherhood. This ideological alignment has fostered a close and enduring relationship between the KIU and the AKP, with Bahadin himself maintaining robust international ties with Erdogan and the AKP leadership. Over the years, this relationship has evolved from a personal rapport to an organic partnership, with the Islamic Union actively contributing to balancing the Kurdish parties’ interactions with the Turkish government.

Presently, the Kurdistan Islamic Union operates its relations office in Turkey, fostering close ties with the AKP. Members of the KIU actively engage in Islamic conferences, forums, and gatherings, focusing on Islam and Islamic movements. Recently, dozens of Islamic scholars and politicians from the Kurdistan Region participated in an international conference on Palestine held in Turkey.

In 2008, amidst efforts by the Supreme Council of Kurdistan Political Parties, spearheaded by Massoud Barzani of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), to bolster relations with Turkey, Salahaddin Mohammed Bahadin utilized his extensive network to arrange a delegation’s audience with Erdogan and the AKP government. While the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) remains prominently associated with Turkey and the AKP through its intrinsic ties, other Kurdish Islamic factions have also nurtured personal connections with Turkish leadership. Noteworthy is the engagement of figures from various Kurdish groups, including the Islamic Movement, who have forged links with Erdogan and the AKP, capitalizing on these connections across different spheres of engagement and influence.

Conversely, Komal maintains robust connections in Turkey through various channels. One such channel is through Hudapar, a Kurdish Islamic party in Turkey, which has garnered acceptance among Islamists in the Kurdistan region due to its relations with the Turkish government. Led by Ali Bapir, Komal is among the Islamic groups that foster their ties with Turkey through both Hudapar and the Turkish consulate general in Erbil.

From |Religious Brotherhood to Common Interests

The foundation of the relationship between the AKP in Turkey and Kurdish Islamists in the Kurdistan region of Iraq rests on an Islamic principle, as espoused by Prophet Mohammed, peace be upon him: “The Muslim is the brother of the Muslim; he does not wrong him nor does he forsake him.” Hence, the AKP and Kurdish Islamists share fraternal ties, which extend across various domains, encompassing politics, security, culture, education, and financial interests.

On one hand, Kurdish Islamists in Iraq play a crucial role in facilitating authentic relations between the AKP and Kurds in Turkey, including Islamic groups, influential figures, and Muslim communities in Kurdish-speaking regions of the country. While, the overarching question revolves around the role Kurdistan’s Islamic parties play in shaping the region’s relationship with Turkey. Fatih Sangawi, a member of the KIU leadership, highlighted the longstanding relations the Islamic Union has maintained with Islamic entities in Turkey, dating back to the era of Necmettin Erbakan. For instance, following the 2017 referendum and the subsequent trade embargo, the secretary of the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) visited Turkey to mitigate further restrictions on trade routes between the Kurdistan Region and Turkey.

Over the past 15 years, the predominant facet of the Kurdistan Region’s relationship with Turkey has been economic. Wrya Hussein, head of the Dor Organization for Oil Information, suggests that Islamist groups, particularly the Islamic Union, wield some economic influence under Turkish governance. However, their economic clout remains overshadowed by the PUK and KDP due to the controlled labor market in Kurdistan and the absence of a comprehensive economic strategy from Islamic factions.

Beyond economics, cultural and educational exchanges have played a crucial role in strengthening ties between Turkey and the Kurdistan Region. The proliferation of Turkish educational institutions and the popularity of Turkish media and dramas in Kurdistan underscore Turkey’s soft power and cultural influence. Koshan Ali Zaman, a Kurdish researcher and writer, highlighted the role of Kurdistan Islamists in publishing intellectual and cultural works due to shared perspectives found in many Turkish dramas, writings, and publications. This shared understanding has fostered a deeper appreciation for Turkish cultural products among Kurdish Islamists.

“These cultural connections have expanded to include scientific trips and collaborative efforts between Turkish institutions and Islamic organizations, particularly the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU),” Koshan noted. Furthermore, Zaman pointed out that KIU members have significantly contributed to supporting schools and universities in Turkey, facilitating educational opportunities for both their members and the broader public. Interestingly, KIU cadres have also overseen several Turkish scholarships in the Kurdistan Region, benefiting many individuals and further solidifying Turkey’s influence in the region.

Despite occasional tensions, the relations between Turkey and the Kurdistan Region have largely remained stable over the past two decades, encompassing political, economic, security, educational, and cultural spheres. Regarding security dynamics, the question arises whether the Kurdistan Region can mediate, particularly amid the tensions between the PUK and Ankara.

In 2012, the then-secretary of the Islamic Union, Mohammed Faraj, continued Bahadin’s efforts, visiting Ankara and Qandil to contribute to peace initiatives between the two sides. Despite escalating conflicts and increased Turkish drone attacks on Sulaymaniyah province in 2023, and strained relations between Turkey and the PUK in recent years, the Islamic Union and its leadership have been instrumental in mitigating Turkish airstrikes on PUK-controlled areas in Sulaimani and Halabja provinces, as asserted by Fatih Sangawi.

In reflection, the evolving alliance between the Kurdistan Region and Turkey, anchored in their shared Islamic affiliations, has matured into a multifaceted partnership over time. Spearheaded by the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU), this relationship has flourished through political, economic, and diplomatic collaboration, bolstered by ideological alignment with Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). While economic ties have been prominent, cultural and educational exchanges have deepened the connection, illustrating Turkey’s burgeoning soft power in Kurdistan. Despite occasional tensions stemming from political disputes or security concerns, mutual interests have largely fostered stability and dialogue.

Looking forward, the interplay between Kurdish Islamic parties and Turkey will continue to shape the region’s geopolitical landscape. As both entities navigate regional complexities and pursue mutual prosperity, the mediation and cooperation facilitated by Islamic parties will remain crucial. The enduring partnership between the KIU and the AKP underscores the potential of shared ideologies in bridging borders. Challenges persist, yet the groundwork laid by years of collaboration offers optimism for increased cooperation and stronger ties.

Envisioning the future, scenarios emerge where Kurdish Islamists act as mediators between Turkey and Kurdish factions, easing tensions and advancing peace initiatives. Their economic influence hints at potential shifts in power dynamics amidst evolving geopolitics. Cultural and educational exchanges, propelled by Turkish soft power and Kurdish Islamist engagement, deepen integration. However, navigating security dynamics remains a challenge. The evolving influence of Kurdish Islamists on Turkey’s relationship with the Kurdistan Region warrants further study, poised to shape regional dynamics in the years ahead.

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