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Election2024

New Delhi: Throughout the election season, the BJP held firm on its ambitious target of 400 Lok Sabha seats for the NDA, rallying behind the slogan ‘ab ki baar 400 paar’ despite the opposition’s relentless mockery. If three exit polls are accurate, the ruling party might have the last laugh.

Two polls have predicted ranges with figures just over 400 on the higher end, while News 24-Today’s Chanakya has forecasted a precise tally of 400 for the NDA. This number comes with a margin of error of 15 seats, indicating a potential range of 385 to 415 seats. India TV-CNX has projected a range of 371-401 seats, and India Today-Axis My India has estimated 361-401 seats.

However, it’s crucial to note that exit polls can often be incorrect.

In 2019, the NDA secured 352 seats, with the BJP winning 303 on its own. If Prime Minister Narendra Modi secures a third consecutive term, it would be historic, showcasing the party and alliance’s election prowess if the NDA reaches even the lower end of these predictions.

A tally of 361, the minimum figure predicted by India Today-Axis My India, would mean the alliance has improved its performance in each successive election, signaling minimal anti-incumbency and highlighting PM Narendra Modi’s enduring popularity.

The opposition INDIA Alliance, which claimed on Saturday that it will win 295 constituencies, has been projected to win 107 (plus-minus 11) by Today’s Chanakya, 109-139 by CNX, and 131-166 by Axis My India.

With 80 Lok Sabha seats, Uttar Pradesh remains a crucial battleground. In 2019, the BJP won 62 seats when the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party were allied. Now, with the Samajwadi Party allied with the Congress, all three polls predict the BJP will improve its tally in the state. News 24-Today’s Chanakya forecasts 68 (plus-minus 7) seats, India Today-Axis My India estimates 67-72 seats, and India TV-CNX projects 70-74 seats for the BJP.

All three polls also suggest the NDA will perform better in the South compared to 2019. Another significant prediction from the exit polls is that the BJP will secure more seats than the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, with Axis My India projecting 26-31 of the state’s 42 seats for the ruling party at the Centre.

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Polling for the seven parliamentary constituencies in Delhi commenced this morning as part of the sixth phase of the Lok Sabha elections. Voters queued up early at polling stations, undeterred by the scorching heat and tight security arrangements, an official confirmed.

Weather and Preparations

The India Meteorological Department has issued a “yellow alert” for the day, forecasting that temperatures could soar to a sweltering 44 degrees Celsius. In response, the Delhi election department has made extensive preparations to ensure voter comfort and safety in the heat. Despite the early hour, many voters were seen lining up outside polling stations well before voting began at 7 a.m.

Voter Demographics

A total of 1.52 crore voters are eligible to cast their ballots across more than 13,000 polling booths in the city. This includes 82 lakh male voters, 69 lakh female voters, and 1,228 voters identifying as the third gender. Notably, there are over 2.52 lakh first-time voters participating in this election, highlighting the growing engagement of the youth in the democratic process.

Key Candidates and Constituencies

The electoral battle in Delhi is fiercely contested, with major political parties fielding prominent candidates across the seven constituencies:

  • Aam Aadmi Party (AAP): Kuldeep Kumar (East Delhi), Mahabal Mishra (West Delhi), Somnath Bharti (New Delhi), Sahi Ram Pahalwan (South Delhi).
  • Congress: J.P. Agarwal (Chandni Chowk), Kanhaiya Kumar (North East Delhi), Udit Raj (North West Delhi).
  • BJP: Manoj Tiwari (North East Delhi), Ramvir Singh Bidhuri (South Delhi), Bansuri Swaraj (New Delhi), Harsh Deep Malhotra (East Delhi), Yogendra Chandolia (North West Delhi), Praveen Khandelwal (Chandni Chowk), Kamaljeet Sehrawat (West Delhi).

Historical Context and Current Dynamics

The BJP has a stronghold in Delhi, having won all seven seats in the 2014 and 2019 general elections with significant margins. The party is aiming for a third consecutive clean sweep. However, the opposition INDIA bloc, comprising the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress, has fielded joint candidates for the first time, posing a formidable challenge to the ruling party. The seat-sharing agreement allocates four seats to AAP and three to Congress.

High-Profile Voters

High-profile leaders, including External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi, were among the early voters, emphasizing the significance of this electoral phase.

Security and Conduct

The polling process is being conducted under stringent security measures to ensure a smooth and fair election. Officials have assured that all necessary precautions are in place to handle any eventuality arising from the extreme weather conditions.

Conclusion

As the day progresses, the voter turnout and the efficiency of the arrangements will be closely monitored. This election is critical not just for Delhi but for the national political landscape, given the high stakes and the intense competition among the major political parties. With AAP and Congress joining forces against the BJP, the outcome in Delhi could significantly influence the overall results of the Lok Sabha elections 2024.

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The commencement of the nomination process marks the beginning of the first phase of General Elections, as declared by the Election Commission of India. Today, a Gazette notification has been issued, outlining the participation of 102 Parliamentary Constituencies across 21 States/UTs in the upcoming polls for the Lok Sabha 2024. Scheduled for April 19, 2024, the polling in these constituencies will mark a significant juncture in the democratic process.

The states and union territories included in Phase 1 are Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Rajasthan, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Bengal, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Jammu and Kashmir, Lakshadweep, and Puducherry.

The last date for filing nominations in Phase 1 for all states and union territories except Bihar is March 27, 2024. For Bihar, it is extended until March 28, 2024. Today, as nominations begin to pour in, the electoral landscape starts to take shape, setting the stage for a crucial electoral process that will shape the nation’s future.

The schedule for Phase 1 is as given below

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On Tuesday, March 19, 2024, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) allocated 10 seats for the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu to the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK). The agreement was formalized during a meeting at the residence of PMK founder S. Ramadoss in Thailapuram, Villupuram district, where BJP State president K. Annamalai and Ramadoss signed the deal.

The leaders engaged in discussions for nearly an hour before reaching a consensus, with PMK president Anbumani Ramadoss and former BJP State president and Union Minister of State L. Murugan also present.

Following the agreement, PMK leaders are expected to join the BJP’s public gathering in Salem today, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is slated to address party members.

The specifics of the constituencies that PMK will contest are anticipated to be announced within the next few days.

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