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In an unprecedented move blending politics, spectacle, and sport, President Donald Trump announced that the White House will host a UFC fight in 2026 as part of America250, the grand celebration marking 250 years of U.S. independence. The plan was revealed during a rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines ahead of this year’s July 4th festivities.

A UFC Fight on White House Grounds

Speaking to an enthusiastic crowd, Trump said,

“It’s going to be a championship fight, full fight, like 20,000 to 25,000 people, and we’re going to do that as part of ‘250’ also.”

Trump emphasized that the event will be “epic,” highlighting his long-standing friendship with UFC President Dana White, who has publicly supported Trump since 2001. Trump added,

“Does anybody watch UFC? The great Dana White? We’re going to have a UFC fight — think of this — on the grounds of the White House. We have a lot of land there.”

According to Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, Trump is “dead serious” about the fight plans. She confirmed the announcement on X (formerly Twitter), saying, “its going to be EPIC!”

Trump and UFC: A Longstanding Alliance

Trump’s connection to the UFC dates back to 2001 when the now-closed Trump Taj Mahal hosted early UFC events. UFC President Dana White has remained a vocal supporter of Trump, calling him

“the legitimate, ultimate, American badass of all time,”
following the recent assassination attempt against the former president.

White also endorsed Trump in his 2016 presidential run, calling him a “fighter” both politically and personally.

What This Means for America250

The announcement has stirred national attention, marking a bold fusion of tradition and entertainment. While critics may question the appropriateness of a UFC bout at the White House, supporters view it as a creative celebration of American culture and strength.

Trump’s vision for America250 is shaping up to be one of the most unconventional and attention-grabbing independence celebrations in U.S. history — blending statecraft, showmanship, and spectacle into a high-octane national milestone.

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Tensions between former allies Donald Trump and Elon Musk have taken a dramatic turn. Following the tech billionaire’s fierce criticism of Trump’s proposed “Big Beautiful Bill,” the former US president suggested he might consider deporting Musk — a naturalised citizen originally from South Africa. The unexpected threat underscores growing divisions over electric vehicle (EV) subsidies, national debt, and political loyalty.

The Trigger: Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ vs. Musk’s EV Advocacy
Elon Musk has publicly slammed Trump’s flagship legislative proposal, the “Big Beautiful Bill,” for eliminating federal support for electric vehicles. Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, has not only criticised the bill’s economic impact but also warned that it would undermine the U.S. EV industry, inflate national debt, and restrict innovation.

“He’s losing his EV mandate,” Trump said in a sharp response, adding, “Elon can lose a lot more than that.”

Musk has gone so far as to threaten political retaliation, vowing to back electoral challenges against any lawmakers who support the bill. In a growing show of resistance, he has even floated the idea of founding a new political faction — the “America Party” — if the bill passes.

Trump’s Retort: Deportation and DOGE Threats
When asked by reporters whether Musk’s citizenship status could be reconsidered due to his vocal opposition, Trump replied cryptically:

“I don’t know. We’ll have to take a look.”

He then made a bizarre reference to turning the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a satirical agency Musk once led, against the billionaire:

“We might have to put DOGE on Elon… DOGE is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon.”

The comments appeared to be half-joking but were immediately picked up by media outlets and political commentators as a sign of escalating tensions.

Musk Responds: “So Tempting to Escalate”
Musk, who is known for his quick retorts on X (formerly Twitter), acknowledged Trump’s comments with restraint. Sharing a clip of the President’s remarks, he replied:

“So tempting to escalate this. So, so tempting. But I will refrain for now.”

Despite his measured tone, the post suggested Musk is weighing his next move carefully amid political pressure and media attention.

From Political Allies to Adversaries
Ironically, Musk was one of Trump’s largest donors in the 2024 election cycle and even served as a close adviser during the early days of the administration. He also led DOGE as a special government employee, tasked with cutting wasteful federal spending.

But as policy divides deepen, the rift between Trump and Musk appears to be widening into a full-scale public fallout.

What began as a policy disagreement over EV subsidies has morphed into a political power struggle between two of the most high-profile figures in American public life. Whether Trump’s deportation threat is serious or symbolic, it marks a significant fracture in a once-powerful alliance — and may shape the course of future debates around clean energy, national policy, and the political ambitions of Elon Musk.

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A dramatic escalation in Middle East tensions unfolded as the United States conducted airstrikes on three suspected Iranian nuclear sites, prompting a fierce retaliation from Iran. Within hours, Tehran launched at least 40 missiles targeting Israel — including its most powerful Khorramshahr-4 missile — marking one of the most significant flare-ups in the ongoing conflict.

US Airstrikes Target Iranian Nuclear Facilities
According to reports, US bomber jets struck three high-value Iranian sites believed to be linked to Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Though details remain classified, the targets are understood to include facilities central to uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons development. The strikes signaled a major shift in Washington’s posture, following weeks of deliberation over potential intervention.

Iran Responds with Khorramshahr-4 Missile Attack
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) confirmed the launch of over 40 missiles in retaliation, including the Khorramshahr-4 — Iran’s most formidable missile with a 2,000-km range and a 1,500-kg payload capacity. Iranian state TV broadcasted footage of the missile, claiming it had been deployed in today’s assault.

Also known as Kheibar, the missile is capable of carrying multiple warheads and is named after the city of Khorramshahr, a historic site from the Iraq-Iran War. Its alternate name references a fortress seized in the 7th century — further underscoring the symbolic dimensions of the strike.

Civilian Impact: Tel Aviv Under Attack
Missiles struck several civilian areas in northern Tel Aviv, including a shopping centre, a bank, and a salon. An NDTV journalist on ground reported shattered storefronts, broken gates, and glass strewn across the streets. Rescuers confirmed at least 11 injuries so far.

One local resident recounted how his first-floor home was destroyed in the blast. Fortunately, he was unharmed, having left for his mother’s home earlier.

Emergency Response in Full Swing
Israeli security and emergency agencies have sealed off affected zones and deployed earthmovers to clear debris. Several streets remain closed as responders manage the aftermath of the attack.

The back-to-back strikes by the US and Iran mark a dangerous new phase in an already volatile region. With powerful missiles and strategic assets now in play, the risk of a full-scale war has risen significantly — making international mediation and de-escalation efforts more urgent than ever.

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As the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies, US President Donald Trump has expressed skepticism over the feasibility of a ceasefire. While voicing support for peace talks, Trump admitted that Israel’s strikes on Iran would be “very hard to stop,” highlighting the complexities surrounding diplomatic intervention in an escalating regional conflict.

Trump: Ceasefire Difficult as Israel Gains Upper Hand
Speaking to reporters, Trump emphasized that the current momentum in Israel’s military operations makes it difficult to halt hostilities. “Israel’s doing well in terms of war. And I think, you would say that Iran is doing less well,” he said. “It’s a little bit hard to get somebody to stop.”

While acknowledging that ceasefire discussions are ongoing, Trump stressed that progress is complicated by the battlefield dynamics. “If somebody is winning, it’s a little bit harder to do than if somebody is losing,” he remarked.

US Position: Support for Talks, No Immediate Military Action
The White House recently stated that Trump sees a “substantial chance of negotiations” and has requested more time to assess whether US forces should directly intervene. “We’re ready, willing and able, and we’ve been speaking to Iran, and we’ll see what happens,” he added.

Trump’s comments indicate a cautious approach, balancing diplomatic engagement with strategic hesitation on military involvement.

Contradiction on Iran’s Nuclear Intentions
Addressing comments made earlier by US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard — who claimed Iran was not actively developing nuclear weapons — Trump firmly rejected the assertion. “She’s wrong,” he said, questioning the validity of US intelligence assessments.

His remarks came amid growing concern over Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility, a heavily fortified uranium enrichment site. Trump has delayed a decision on whether to strike the facility, citing the need for further analysis and clarity on Iran’s intentions.

Israel’s “Preemptive” Strikes on Iran
Israel launched strikes on Iran on June 13, calling them “preemptive” and aimed at halting Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons development. While Iran insists its nuclear program is for civilian purposes, doubts persist in both Israeli and US strategic circles.

Trump’s latest remarks reflect a volatile and unpredictable geopolitical situation, with military dynamics, intelligence disagreements, and diplomatic complexities all at play. While the US publicly supports a ceasefire, the on-ground reality — with Israel gaining momentum — makes peace a challenging proposition in the near term.

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In a statement stirring global attention, former US President Donald Trump has kept the world guessing about a potential military response against Iran. Speaking amidst escalating Middle East tensions, Trump stated, “I may do it, I may not do it,” regarding the possibility of joining Israeli strikes on Iran — a declaration loaded with ambiguity and geopolitical weight.

Trump’s Statement Adds to Global Uncertainty
Addressing reporters from the South Lawn of the White House, Trump emphasized that no one could predict his next move. “Nobody knows what I’m going to do,” he said, underscoring his characteristic unpredictability in foreign policy decisions. He further remarked, “Iran has gotten into a lot of trouble,” reflecting Washington’s long-standing concerns about Tehran’s actions in the region.

Khamenei Responds: Iran “Will Never Surrender”
Trump’s comments followed a fiery proclamation from Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In a strongly worded warning, Khamenei declared that Iran “will never surrender” to external pressure and cautioned that any US intervention could result in “irreparable damage.”
This exchange of stark rhetoric highlights the rising diplomatic and military strain between Washington, Tel Aviv, and Tehran, as observers watch for further developments with growing unease.

The Strategic Implications
Trump’s deliberately vague stance on intervention places significant pressure on both allies and adversaries. It signals a willingness to escalate but without revealing clear intent — a move that keeps military and diplomatic actors off-balance. For Israel, a potential US partnership in strikes could significantly alter the calculus in its standoff with Iran. For Tehran, the uncertainty adds further strain to an already volatile situation.

Trump’s cryptic remarks have once again brought the US-Iran-Israel triangle into sharp global focus. As the region teeters on the edge of further conflict, all eyes remain on Washington’s next move and Tehran’s response.

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Elon Musk Exits Trump Administration After DOGE Advisory Role Ends

Elon Musk has officially concluded his tenure as a Special Government Employee under the Trump administration, marking the end of his advisory role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The move follows Musk’s growing dissatisfaction with the administration’s latest fiscal policy—the much-debated ‘Big, Beautiful’ spending bill. As Musk steps away from his government duties, his focus returns squarely to his business ventures, particularly Tesla and SpaceX.

This development raises important questions about the future of government efficiency initiatives and Musk’s evolving public stance on U.S. policy.

Why Did Elon Musk Join the Trump Administration?

In an unusual but strategic move, Elon Musk accepted a role as Special Government Employee during Donald Trump’s presidency, primarily tasked with supporting the establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This body was envisioned to identify and reduce wasteful federal expenditures.

Musk’s involvement signaled a rare collaboration between Silicon Valley and Washington, focusing on leaner government operations. He was granted significant advisory influence, offering policy input on economic efficiency and technological innovation in federal systems.

What Led to Musk’s Exit?

Musk’s scheduled departure was not entirely unexpected. During a recent Tesla earnings call, he confirmed his impending exit in May 2025, citing a desire to allocate more time to his companies. However, the immediate trigger appears to be his rare but pointed criticism of President Trump’s newly unveiled ‘Big, Beautiful’ spending bill.

Speaking to CBS News, Musk remarked:

“I was disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing. I think a bill can be big or it can be beautiful, but I don’t know if it can be both.”

Despite the administration’s claim that the bill would reduce mandatory spending by $1.6 trillion, Musk’s critique suggests a divergence in fiscal philosophy between him and the President. Trump responded diplomatically, stating that he was “not happy about certain aspects of it” and anticipated further negotiations.

Musk’s Statement on Departure

In a statement posted on X (formerly Twitter), Musk expressed gratitude but emphasized a long-term vision for government reform:

“As my scheduled time as a Special Government Employee comes to an end, I would like to thank President Donald Trump for the opportunity to reduce wasteful spending. The DOGE mission will only strengthen over time as it becomes a way of life throughout the government.”

This statement reflects a belief that the DOGE initiative has laid foundational work for broader institutional change, regardless of his continued involvement.

What Comes Next for DOGE?

With Musk’s departure, the future of DOGE remains uncertain. While the mission was conceptualized under his guidance, the success of the initiative now depends on whether the administration sustains momentum without its most high-profile contributor.

As the political climate intensifies in the lead-up to the next election cycle, policy continuity and fiscal reform may hinge on broader bipartisan support and institutional willpower.

Implications for Musk’s Business Focus

Musk has repeatedly emphasized the need to concentrate on his expanding enterprises. Tesla continues to scale production globally, while SpaceX is entering a new phase of space exploration and satellite deployment.

Returning to these core responsibilities, Musk has made it clear that his government stint was a temporary commitment rather than a long-term political pivot.

Suggested Image

ALT Text: Elon Musk leaving government office, symbolic of his exit from the White House advisory role.
Image Concept: A high-resolution image of Elon Musk exiting a government building, briefcase in hand, with the Capitol in the background.

Conclusion

Elon Musk’s exit from the Trump administration closes a chapter in an unconventional partnership between the tech titan and Washington. While his involvement with DOGE reflected a sincere interest in governmental efficiency, rising tensions over federal spending have clarified his priorities. As Musk returns to focus on Tesla and SpaceX, the fate of the DOGE initiative—and broader efforts to curb wasteful spending—now rests in the hands of federal policymakers.

Call to Action:
Stay updated on major developments in U.S. politics and tech-policy intersections by subscribing to The Parliament News. Share your views on Musk’s government exit in the comments section below.

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International students waiting for US visa interviews in India

US Freezes New Student Visa Interviews: What It Means for Indian Applicants and Others

The United States has temporarily suspended new student visa interviews as part of an expanded review of its screening procedures. With over a million international students enrolled in US universities—over 330,000 of them from India—this decision may disrupt academic plans for thousands.

This article examines why the US has implemented this freeze, who is most affected, and what it could mean for the future of international education in America.

Why Has the US Halted Student Visa Interviews?

Internal Review of Vetting Process

According to a leaked diplomatic cable, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has directed all American embassies to pause scheduling new visa interviews for student (F-1, M-1) and exchange visitor (J-1) categories. The cable indicates that the State Department is preparing to expand social media screening of applicants.

“Effective immediately… consulate sections should not add any additional student or exchange visitor visa appointment capacity,” the memo states.

The freeze will remain in place while the department conducts a comprehensive review of its vetting procedures.

Scope of the Suspension

  • Applies to new interview appointments only
  • Does not affect those who already have interviews scheduled
  • Temporary, though no clear timeline has been given

What Visas Are Affected?

F-1 Visa

For students pursuing full-time academic studies

M-1 Visa

For those in vocational or technical training programs

J-1 Visa

For students and scholars in exchange programmes, including Fulbright

The freeze specifically targets these three categories, which together account for the vast majority of international student entries into the US.

How Many Students Will Be Affected?

During the 2023–24 academic year, 1.13 million international students were enrolled in US universities—a 6.6% increase over the previous year. The top three countries of origin were:

  • India: 331,602 students
  • China: 277,398 students
  • South Korea: 43,149 students

With India now leading in student enrollment, the visa freeze could disproportionately affect Indian applicants planning to study in the US this fall.

Which Universities Will Feel the Impact?

The decision comes amid a broader clampdown on US campuses, notably following tension between the Trump administration and top-tier institutions. Harvard recently had its clearance for enrolling international students revoked, a sharp move against a university where international students comprise 27% of the population.

Top US Universities by International Student Numbers (2023–24)

  • New York University (NYU): 27,247
  • Northeastern University: 21,023
  • Columbia University: 20,321
  • University of Rochester: 30% international population

These institutions may see delays or disruptions in welcoming new international students if the visa freeze persists into the summer.

Is This Linked to Recent Campus Protests?

The timing of the move has raised concerns. The visa revocation of Ranjani Srinivasan, a PhD candidate at Columbia University, in March 2024 may signal a policy shift. Srinivasan claimed her visa—valid until 2029—was cancelled due to her pro-Palestinian social media posts, though she was not part of any active student groups or protests at the time.

Critics argue that expanded social media screening could be used to suppress political expression among international students.

What Students Should Do Now

While the freeze may be temporary, its ripple effects could influence application timelines, admission offers, and travel plans. Prospective students should:

  • Monitor embassy announcements for updates
  • Stay in close contact with university international offices
  • Ensure social media content complies with evolving vetting norms

For now, caution and preparedness are key. The situation remains fluid, and applicants must navigate the changing landscape with both vigilance and patience.

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The Return of the Dome: A New American Ambition
In a bold vision that echoes the strategic edge of Israel’s Iron Dome, former United States President Donald Trump has unveiled plans for a sweeping missile defence initiative — dubbed the ‘Golden Dome’. Designed to be an impenetrable shield from the ground, sea, and even space, the proposed system aims not only to protect the United States but also, potentially, Canada, irrespective of its political alignment with the idea.

With an estimated price tag of $175 billion, the system is expected to deploy cutting-edge technologies across multiple platforms. From Trump’s recent speeches to his March address to Congress, the former president has maintained a firm stance — that the United States must rival and even surpass Israel’s missile defence capabilities in an increasingly volatile world.

What Makes Missile Defence So Critical
Modern warfare is no longer restricted to battlefields or borders. The skies have become a strategic frontier, where advanced missile defence systems are the ultimate deterrents. These systems are multi-tiered and built to detect, intercept, and neutralize incoming threats across various flight phases — from launch to re-entry.

Trump’s vision appears to be rooted in this understanding, recognising that systems like Israel’s Iron Dome have saved thousands of lives. The urgency is also linked to recent security challenges faced globally — from Iran’s barrage against Israel to India’s own defence posture during Operation Sindoor against Pakistan.

Inside America’s ‘Golden Dome’
The proposed Golden Dome will feature a layered architecture. Its outermost warning layer would be the Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS), relying on satellite sensors for early detection of launches. Ground-based radars will be integrated to track these threats in real-time.

Then comes the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) — the backbone of the US response to intercontinental ballistic missiles. Based primarily on the West Coast, the GMD interceptors are aimed at halting long-range threats in mid-flight. Supporting this effort at sea is the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense system. Introduced during Barack Obama’s tenure, it uses upgraded SM-2 missiles on US Navy warships, making naval defence a crucial component of the network.

On land, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) acts during the terminal phase of missile attacks. It’s a hit-to-kill platform, mobile and versatile, and has already proved its utility in regions like Israel, where it intercepted Houthi missiles launched from Yemen. Completing this inner layer are the PAC-3 (Patriot Advanced Capability-3) interceptors, which target short to medium-range threats and form part of the US-Japan defence strategy in the Pacific, especially in light of China’s growing hypersonic arsenal.

Israel’s Iron Dome and Beyond
The Israeli defence structure is often held as the gold standard. At its core lies the Iron Dome — the inner ring of a system that includes David’s Sling and the Arrow series for extended reach. The Iron Dome covers ranges up to 70 km with a reported 95 percent kill rate. Using radar, computer algorithms, and missile interceptors, it only fires when a projectile is headed toward populated or strategic areas.

Complementing this are David’s Sling, which can intercept missiles from up to 300 km away, and the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems. Arrow-3, in particular, boasts the ability to neutralise threats even outside Earth’s atmosphere. Israel is also developing a high-powered laser system — the Iron Beam — which it claims can shoot at the speed of light, has no magazine limitations, and costs almost nothing per use.

India’s Integrated Shield in the Sky
India has built a multi-layered air defence network that blends its military branches into a centralised architecture. Under the Integrated Air Command and Control System, data is pooled and analysed in real time to counter threats.

India’s network starts with drone defence, using rapid-firing guns. The next level involves short-range missiles like the OSA-AK, Pechora, and Spyder, while the third layer includes medium-range interceptors such as the Akash and Indo-Israeli MRSAM. Long-range security is provided by the Russian-made S-400 systems, as well as Indian fighter jets. The Akashteer system integrates the Army’s capabilities, ensuring a seamless interface between air, land, and space platforms.

The Global Landscape: A Defensive Arms Race
The United States, Israel, and India are not alone in investing heavily in missile defence. Russia’s A-135 system protects Moscow, while the S-400 has become a global export, with India operating three squadrons. China’s HQ-9 system, now exported to countries like Pakistan and Egypt, has already been targeted during Indian military operations.

Taiwan’s Sky Bow systems and Japan’s upcoming deployment of PAC-3 interceptors highlight just how widespread the missile shield race has become. As geopolitical tensions deepen, many nations are working to develop or buy these layered networks.

Conclusion: The Sky Is the Next Battleground
Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ may still be an idea in motion, but its announcement underscores a larger global trend. Missile defence is no longer optional; it’s an essential element of national security. As technologies evolve and threats grow more complex, the race to control the sky is intensifying — and those who fall behind may risk far more than just strategic losses.

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India-US Trade Talks Gain Momentum

In a recent interview with Fox News, US President Donald Trump reiterated his bold claim that India is ready to reduce tariffs on American goods by 100 percent. This assertion, coming amidst ongoing trade negotiations between the two nations, has sparked a fresh wave of speculation about the imminent announcement of a comprehensive trade agreement between New Delhi and Washington.

However, Indian officials have responded with caution. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, addressing the issue in New Delhi, stated that any agreement would need to be mutually beneficial. His remarks underscored India’s position that trade negotiations are complex and require careful calibration to ensure benefits for both sides.


Trump’s Position and Tariff Concerns

President Trump once again described India as “one of the highest tariff nations in the world,” claiming that it is nearly impossible for American businesses to operate freely under current conditions. He emphasized that India is now reportedly willing to drop all such tariffs for the US. While he insisted that a deal with India is “coming soon,” he also made it clear that he is in no hurry to finalize it, adding that “everybody wants to make a deal with us,” but the US would be selective in its engagements.


India Responds with Emphasis on Balance

In response to these repeated assertions, Jaishankar made India’s stance clear: the trade deal must be equitable. “These are complicated negotiations. Nothing is decided till everything is. Any trade deal has to be mutually beneficial; it has to work for both countries,” he said.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal is currently in Washington to evaluate the progress of the ongoing discussions. He is expected to hold meetings with key American trade officials, including US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and USTR Jamieson Greer, to iron out specifics of the proposed agreement.


Key Trade Interests on Both Sides

India is looking to secure duty concessions for its labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, leather goods, garments, plastics, chemicals, shrimp, oil seeds, grapes, and bananas. These are crucial export domains that support large portions of India’s workforce and contribute significantly to its economy.

On the other hand, the United States is pushing for tariff reductions in areas like industrial goods, automobiles—particularly electric vehicles—wines, petrochemicals, dairy products, and certain agricultural items such as apples and tree nuts.


Conclusion: Optimism with a Hint of Caution

While President Trump’s remarks suggest an air of confidence about the deal’s finalization, India remains cautious, emphasizing that such agreements require strategic consideration and reciprocity. The ongoing negotiations reflect both countries’ intent to expand bilateral trade but highlight the need for careful navigation of economic interests on both sides.

With top-level talks underway, a deal might indeed be on the horizon. However, its success will depend on how well the negotiators balance ambition with fairness—a principle that both sides appear committed to upholding.

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In a world already navigating economic tremors, a renewed round of U.S. trade tariffs is now threatening to shake the global trading system even harder. The latest Global Trade Outlook from the World Trade Organisation (WTO), released on April 16, outlines a sobering future: what could have been a year of robust trade expansion is now on course for contraction.

The reason? Donald Trump’s latest tariff strategy, as of April 14, is poised to shave off 0.2% from global trade volumes in 2025—a sharp deviation from the 2.7% growth that was otherwise forecast. And that’s just the surface.


From Recovery to Retraction

After a brief period of optimism in 2024—when global trade grew at 2.9%, outpacing global GDP growth for the first time since 2017 (excluding the post-pandemic rebound)—2025 now paints a completely different picture. World trade is expected to shrink by 0.2%, even as global GDP slows down to 2.2%, compared to an earlier projection of 2.8%.

WTO’s report warns: this contraction isn’t the endpoint. If paused reciprocal tariffs return, the picture gets much darker. The global economy could see a 0.6 percentage point drop in growth, with trade volumes plunging by 1.5%, due to a cocktail of revived tariffs and heightened policy uncertainty.


Not Just Numbers—Real World Disruptions

While the first-order effects of tariffs are damaging enough, it’s the second-order ripple effects that raise deeper concerns. The WTO report underscores how policy unpredictability, combined with geopolitical tensions, could throw cold water on investment plans, reroute supply chains, and slow down long-term growth momentum.

Though some countries may find short-term export gains—as trade routes shift away from China—the broader impact tells a different story. China is expected to lose 77% of its exports to the U.S., and while Asia (excluding China) might see a 2% bump in exports to the U.S., it will simultaneously face a 6% surge in imports from China. This trade rebalancing may create as many complications as it solves.


North America Bears the Brunt

According to the WTO’s regional estimates, North America is projected to be the biggest drag on global trade recovery. In the baseline scenario, North American exports and imports were forecasted to grow by 2.2% and 2.8% respectively. But with the current tariff trajectory, those numbers flip into the negative: exports down 12.6% and imports falling by 9.6%.

GDP growth in North America is now set to tumble from 2% to a dismal 0.4%. In Asia, growth is expected to soften from 4.1% to 3.7%. The trade-dependent economies of the East are staring at a double whammy: disrupted access to U.S. markets and increased competition from rerouted Chinese exports.


Services Take a Hit Too

The report also flags emerging trouble for global services trade, which is deeply intertwined with goods trade. Baseline forecasts had commercial services expanding by 5.1% in 2025, but that’s now revised down to 4%. Transport and tourism, naturally, will absorb the biggest blows, but even digitally delivered services—an area where countries like India excel—are forecasted to slow from 6.6% to 5.6%.


The Threat of Bloc Economies and Long-Term Fractures

One of the most striking takeaways from the report is its long-range simulation of what happens if the world splits into two hardened economic blocs. In such a scenario—driven by 100% reciprocal tariffs, greater non-tariff barriers, and amplified uncertainty—global real GDP could plunge by nearly 7% by 2040.

And it’s the low-income economies that would be left most vulnerable, with potential losses of more than 9%, the report warns.


Friend-Shoring: India’s Lost Opportunity?

For India, there’s an additional twist. The current trade tensions could put a damper on the much-hyped “China+1” strategy, which had placed India as a top destination for companies diversifying their manufacturing bases. Rising uncertainty might make firms hit pause on expansion plans. The momentum of friend-shoring—the idea of relocating to politically aligned nations—could slow, leaving India in a wait-and-watch limbo.


The world’s trade engine is at a precarious crossroad. While the dust of past trade wars had barely begun to settle, a new wave of protectionism is ready to redraw the map once more. For businesses, policymakers, and economies around the world, the coming year will demand more than just adjustment—it will demand resilience, foresight, and collaboration.

The WTO may be cautious in its tone, but its message is crystal clear: in a global economy built on interdependence, everyone loses when walls go up.

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